Here at Last Word on Hockey, we will preview and review all of the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. In every series, we try to give at least three articles throughout the series’ lifespan. Will the Montreal Canadiens or the Washington Capitals be able to raise Lord Stanley’s cup? The Montreal Canadiens come in as a massive underdog after being the final team to clinch their playoff berth. They have a tough task against the juggernaut Capitals, who finished second in the entire NHL this season. This is the first time these teams have faced off in the playoffs since 2010, where in a similar situation, the Canadiens took down the Capitals in game seven as the underdogs.
Canadiens vs Capitals Odds and Promos
So, who will win this seven-game series? If we take a deep dive into the odds for Montreal and Washington, betting sites have Washington as a heavy favourite. The Capitals have a -270 probability to advance to the second round with the Canadiens at +220. Similar outlets have Washington as having the eighth-best chance to lift Lord Stanley at around +1000. The Canadiens have the worst odds at +7500. So, without further adieu, let’s get into the series analysis!
Review of the Canadiens and Capitals Regular Season Series
The Montreal Canadiens and Washington Capitals faced off on three occasions in the regular season. The Capitals took the first two meetings, with Montreal winning the final contest in overtime. The first two Capitals victories came at a time early in the year when the Canadiens were a basement-dwelling team, so it’s hard to put much stock into these games. Montreal was able to prove it can compete with the Capitals in their final meeting. Montreal iced three separate goalies throughout the season series, with Sam Montembeault, Jakub Dobes, and Cayden Primeau each getting a start. Dobes earned the only victory of the three. For Montreal, their stars were their best players in the season series, with Caufield registering a goal in each game as well as two assists, and Suzuki and Hutson each notching four points apiece. For the Capitals, their stars also carried the load. Aliaksei Protas and Tom Wilson each registered four points, with Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome recording three each. The Capitals got the better of the Canadiens in the season series and will look to continue that trend heading into the playoffs.
Montreal Canadiens Keys to Victory
If the Canadiens are to upset the Capitals in this playoff series, there are three main keys to victory they must achieve. The first key to victory is team discipline. The Canadiens were one of the most penalized teams in the NHL during the regular season, which is something they can’t afford to do against the Capitals. The Capitals have one of the better power plays in the NHL, ranking 13th this year. Despite the Canadiens having the ninth-best penalty kill, giving Alex Ovechkin, the NHL all-time goal leader, opportunities to work, is never a good idea. This leads into the next key to victory for the Montreal Canadiens, which is winning the special teams battle.
The Montreal Canadiens power play has been better this season, but still lacks consistency. Rookie Lane Hutson and sniper Patrik Laine have changed the top unit dramatically and made it a bigger threat. However, the power play is often times predictable and has trouble with zone entries and turnovers. They will need to convert on their opportunities against Washington’s fourth-ranked penalty kill. Montreal’s penalty kill will also need to be at its best against the Capitals. They can’t allow Washington to gain any momentum from their power play. Goaltender Sam Montembeault will need to be Montreal’s best penalty killer, and he will also need to win the goalie battle if the Canadiens want to take down the Capitals, which is their final key to victory. Capitals netminder Logan Thompson has statistically been one of the best goalies in the NHL this season, ranking in the top ten in almost all major categories. If the Canadiens stand any chance in this series, Montembeault will need to be their most valuable player and outplay Thompson.
Washington Capitals Keys to Victory
The Washington Capitals come into the playoff series as the clear favourites over the Canadiens. If they are to dominate Montreal and advance to the second round, there are three things they need to achieve. The first key to victory is to dominate Montreal physically. The Capitals have some physical players on their roster, highlighted by Tom Wilson. The Capitals fourth line of Nic Dowd, Brandon Duhaime, and Taylor Raddysh can also play a physical brand of hockey. With Arber Xhekaj likely on the sidelines to begin the series, Washington has a chance to impose their will physically on the Canadiens early.
One major advantage that the Canadiens have is that they play in the loudest arena in the NHL, the Bell Centre. The Canadiens can gain a lot of momentum in the series from their fans, but if Washington can take the life out of the Bell Centre, it would halt any momentum going Montreal’s way. If the Capitals are to win the series, they need to play well on the road and silence the Montreal faithful. Finally, the main key to Washington’s victory in the series is shutting down Montreal’s stars. The Canadiens aren’t nearly as deep as the Capitals, and Washington can take advantage of that. The Habs have been led offensively by Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Patrik Laine. Beyond that, there aren’t many threats offensively on the roster. If the Capitals can shut down Montreal’s top players and limit their impact on the series, they should cruise to the second round.
Roster Comparison Between the Two Teams
Montreal Canadiens
As our playoff series preview continues, the Montreal Canadiens are weaker than the Capitals on paper in most areas. The Canadiens have some talented players at the top of their lineup, but their roster is thin in comparison to Washington’s. Offensively, beyond the top line, Montreal doesn’t have the same depth as its opponents. The injury to Kirby Dach has left them without a second-line centre. Alex Newhook is filling the void, but isn’t a consistent offensive threat. Patrik Laine hasn’t been productive at 5-on-5 either this year, and outside of the power play, he won’t bring much offence. The big wild card in Montreal’s offence is the arrival of rookie Ivan Demidov. After an impressive NHL debut, Montreal hopes that Demidov can bring an offensive spark to the forward core.
Outside of Lane Hutson and Kaiden Guhle, Montreal’s defence is also thin. Mike Matheson has struggled at times this year. Veteran David Savard has also lost a step this year and, as a result, announced his retirement at season’s end. In the goaltending department, Sam Montembeault has been lights out as of late and will need to continue his play if Montreal has any chance in the series.
Washington Capitals
As for the Capitals, they have a deep offensive core led by Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome. Alaksei Protas and Connor McMichael have had breakout offensive seasons, strengthening the team’s forward group. Pierre-Luc Dubois has also found his way this year in Washington. Add Tom Wilson and rookie Ryan Leonard to the fold, and you have a dangerous forward core. On the defensive end, Jakob Chychrun and John Carlson have had great seasons for the Capitals, while their second pair of Rasmus Sandin and Matt Roy gives them a solid top four.
In goal, Logan Thompson has been stellar for Washington all year long, and Charlie Lindgren is a solid backup. The Capitals have no real concerns anywhere in their lineup. Heading into the playoffs, the only potential issue for Washington is health. Martin Fehervary missed the final regular-season game with an injury. Jakob Chychrun is also banged up, while Protas has been out for the last couple of weeks. The trio’s status ahead of game one is still up in the air.
Who is the Favourite from our Capitals and Canadiens Playoff Series Preview
While the Capitals have been the better team over the course of the regular season, Montreal has been the better team of late. The Canadiens have won seven of their last ten while Washington has dropped seven of their last ten contests. The Canadiens have all the momentum and are riding a high after making the playoffs for the first time since 2021. Washington clinched their playoff berth weeks ago and has had a stress-free month of April. Montreal, on the other hand, has essentially been playing playoff games for the last month. This is the biggest advantage that the Canadiens have over the Capitals.
A big reason many Presidents’ Trophy and high-ranking teams often falter early in the playoffs is due to them easing their way to the playoffs after clinching, while lower-seeded teams have been playing playoff-style hockey for weeks already. Washington has fallen victim to this in the past. However, this is a much different Capitals team than we have seen in previous years. On paper, they are better than Montreal in almost every area. However, they can’t take this Canadiens team lightly, and it’s hard to discount them as they’ve proven all doubters wrong at every turn this season. In the end, though, the Capitals have the advantage heading into the playoffs and should be able to take down the Canadiens if they are playing at their best.
Prediction: Capitals win the Series 4-2
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
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