ST. LOUIS – It’s almost time for the NHL Playoffs, and the St. Louis Blues are very well in the mix, but they still need a few things to fall into place to secure a spot in the dance.
Boosted by a franchise-best 12-game winning streak that ended Monday, the Blues currently sit at 93 points with a record of 43-29-7 and only three regular season games remaining – the first of those three set for Wednesday.
Historically, in the post-COVID NHL era, the average cutoff for playoffs in the Western Conference has been around 95-97 points per season, so the Blues are right on track. Still, it could be a tight finish.
The Blues could clinch as early as Wednesday, or it might come down to their final game next week. Right now, at least four unique clinching scenarios are still in play.
Let’s break down the four ways the Blues could clinch a playoff spot in the coming days…
Scenario 1
Blues: One more regulation win. Calgary Flames: One more regulation loss.
This scenario actually presented itself on Monday, but neither specific outcome happened as the Blues fell to the Winnipeg Jets and the Flames defeated the San Jose Sharks. It’s also a possibility Wednesday as the Blues face the Edmonton Oilers and the Flames face the Anaheim Ducks.
Essentially, this scenario ensures the Blues would finish with at least as many points as Calgary at the regular season’s end, if not more.
With three games remaining, the Blues could finish anywhere from 93-99 points. Calgary, currently just outside the playoff bubble, could finish anywhere from 87-97 points.
One Blues win would guarantee a total of at least 95 points, and one more regulation Flames loss would cap them at no more than 95 points. The Blues would hold the tiebreaker in this scenario because they would finish with more regular season wins than Calgary, the first tiebreaker, assuming both complete their 82-game schedule without any unforeseen interruptions.
The Flames had one game postponed in January due to wildfires in Los Angeles, so that adds a little suspense in the Blues playoff chase because they would otherwise have just one game in hand instead of two. That game will be made up on the final day of the regular season, April 17.
Scenario 2
Calgary Flames: At least two more regulation losses.
In this case, it wouldn’t matter what the Blues do. In theory, they could drop their final three games. If Calgary loses two more, they would be capped at 93 points and could not pass the Blues in terms of total points or tiebreakers. This would be an anticlimactic way for the Blues to secure a playoff spot, but it’s possible.
Scenario 3
Blues: At least two more regulation wins in the final three games.
In this case, the St. Louis Blues would finish with at least 45 regular-season victories and at least 97 points. Calgary could theoretically win out to finish with 97 points, but again, the Blues hold the ultimate tiebreaker of regular season wins, so they would advance.
Scenario 4
Minnesota Wild: Lose out, no more than one being an overtime loss.
Another longshot path to possibly secure a playoff berth: If the Wild largely stumble to the finish line, the Blues could clinch by default.
Minnesota currently sits in the second Wild Card spot with 91 points and four games to play. The Blues are at 93 points with three games to go. If the Wild lost their final four games, and at least three without securing an extra point in overtime, they would finish below the Blues in the Western Conference standings with no more than 92 points.
This would lock in the Blues because the Flames are the only team in striking distance of passing them otherwise.
Bonus chaos
Unrelated to the Blues chase, there is a crazy scenario too in which the Utah Hockey Club or Vancouver Canucks could also overtake Minnesota for the final Wild Card spot if either win out, assuming Minnesota loses out and Calgary is contained.
However, the Blues would be ahead of both Utah and Vancouver, already having more points than Utah can max out at, while currently standing at Vancouver’s current max of 93 points and holding a tiebreaker edge of total wins.
What’s left?
Three more regular season games for the St. Louis Blues: Wednesday @ Edmonton Oilers, Saturday @ Seattle Kraken and Tuesday vs. Utah Hockey Club.
Less than one week in the 2024-25 regular season remains for the Blues. For many others, the regular season ends next Thursday, April 17. Playoffs will begin Saturday, April 19.
Buckle up. Here’s a closer look at the NHL standings for those into scoreboard watching.