Strengths and weaknesses of the 2025 roster
This is Part 2 of a deep dive on how the Cardinal’s might approach 2025 off-season planning. Part 1 set the stage for what the roster will look like at the start of the off-season. This installment focuses on how the Cardinals might assess the needs of that roster as a whole and looks at issues of roster construction, less so than individual players. That comes next (Parts 3 and 4). I’m hopeful this building block approach to the analysis is digestible for readers. It’s a bit of an experiment for me.
Reminder: This approach tries to anticipate how the Cardinals might approach this, not what I think they should do. Underpinning everything in the assessment is an expectation that all this roster work will result lower overall payroll structure, but hard to estimate how much.
First things first, we assess how management will view the strengths and weaknesses across their roster. They are usually pretty good at this, even if they keep those cards close to the vest. The starting point is likely to be as follows:
At the highest level, it is obvious that a major challenge is that many of the highest paid players (in light red) are not the most productive. This is a core problem.
Other than shedding some payroll, how will they add and subtract? At the high level, the Cardinals need more offense, better pitching, better base running and better defense. Who doesn’t? Let’s dig in.
The pitching
The Cardinals gave up 719 runs this season, 110 less than 2023. In the run-prevention sense, last off-season’s plan worked. The Cardinals will still need to improve a bit on the run prevention side (defense, pitching). Looking at recent history, 700 runs allowed (RA) is a good target to shoot for if you wish to contend. This can yo-yo a bit when other factors (juiced ball, anyone?) raise or lower everyone’s runs scored and runs allowed, but 700 is a good ceiling to get under. There are multiple ways to get there (better defense, better starters, stout bullpen), but it stands to reason that if they roll out the pitchers currently on this roster, the results are unlikely to improve, much less leap into the target range.
The defense (the other part of run prevention)
Defensively, the Cardinals were inconsistent. Good in some areas, not so good in others. Much of this reflects all the moving parts. Only Arenado, Goldschmidt, Siani and Winn were consistently at the same position (and not coincidentally, the ones who were most solid defensively). Everything else was mix-and-match due to injury and non-performance and, sometimes, no one else to plug in. Overall, too many very poor defenders played too many innings in the field.
Burleson at -9 OAA in 550 innings. Walker -4 OAA in 367 innings, Gorman -6 OAA in 860 innings. Those are … not good for the run prevention side of the house. None of them bring enough offense to negate the defensive shortcomings.
I don’t have a great stat for the catcher’s defense, but I’d tend to put Herrera in this group because of the inability to control the running game. At least he has an .800 OPS to point at.
The offense
On the other side, the Cardinals scored 672 runs this season, 47 less than in 2023 and 104 less that 2022 (772). A multi-year offensive decline. Last season’s off-season plan didn’t identify or address this trend. More concerning, the Cardinal’s offensive regression in 2023 was actually worse than it showed on the surface, as offense league-wide had trended up 10% from 2022, while the Cardinals trended down 10%. So much for a rising tide raising all boats. In 2024, the Cardinal’s runs scored (RS) declined 6%, outpacing the league-wide decline of 4%. With such a defined trend across 2 seasons of offense, it is quite possible there is no regression to the mean to be counted on with the current players. If the talent is unchanged, it would be reasonable to expect continued decline offensively overall. Some of the younger players may improve next year, but some of the older players may continue to decline. I suspect they will begin to view the overall offensive profile as a talent issue, not a performance variability issue.
On the flip side of poor defenders playing too much, there was Siani, a defender who flat can’t hit taking more at-bats than should have been, due to his fielding prowess (which I admire). They will need to carefully determine if the rest of this offense can be well enough constructed to carry his elite defense or if he needs to be re-positioned into a less prominent role.
Although the data is a bit nosier on runs scored, building a playoff team probably requires an offense projected for 750 or more runs, if you want to be confidant you can score enough to make the playoffs. With at least 80 RS to add, the Cardinals have a lot of work to do in this area.
The baserunning
The Cardinals finished 19th in BsR at -3.1. The -3.1 is just a tad below mid-point. Not horrible. But not that good, either. The range in 2024 was +20 (MIL) to -17 (NYY) with a median of ~0, so the Cards would be just in the 2nd lowest quartile. More concerning, 3 of the 5 NL Central teams are in the top 5 of the majors in this category, so while they are middling to average, they are well behind their most direct competition. Fundamentally, they need to add some speed and athleticism. To accumulate positive BsR (stealing, avoiding DP, taking the extra base), one has to get on-base, so improving the team OBP would probably add a few ticks to this.
Run Score (RS) and Runs Allowed (RA) in the aggregate
So, target 700 or less runs allowed (RA). Target 750 or more runs scored (RS). But think of these numbers in ranges, not absolute thresholds. The range is defined by your target pythag (the difference between RA and RS). This needs to be 90 or more if they want to view themselves as a legit contender. So, they can’t take the floor on both RA (700) and RS (750) targets. This leaves them with the option of developing an offense that scores above 750 or improving run prevention to get below 700. This is where market intelligence and good internal evaluation comes in. Where is your internal improvement going to come from? Probably more upside on offense than pitching, right now. What is the easiest, most attainable path the market can support – adding talent that improves runs scored or preventing them? And can all that be done in 1 off-season? I doubt it. More importantly, I think they doubt it, too.
What about that random result – RISP?
Exploring the offense side more, much has been made of the team RISP / Clutch results, which were among the worst in all of baseball. Studies tell us that individual clutch results are very random and regress to the player’s mean over time. Good one year, bad the next. But as a team, well, they all collectively failed consistently. Shown in the spreadsheet below, we see a middling offense with no runners on that becomes 3rd quartile with any runners on. Interestingly, Cardinal hitters’ production remained mostly consistent, whereas league-wide, offense was better with men on than with no one on. Except in STL. Then, the offense became decidedly 4th quartile with RISP, almost worst in the majors. Again, league-wide offense ticks up with RISP. But not in STL. Good thing this is random, or they might have to find a way to address this. Fire the hitting coach? I will have a deeper dive into this data. I’m almost done digging. Spoiler alert: while the overall results (below) are nothing to behold, some of the individual statistics are … rather stark.
I do think they will take from this that an offense with a combination of low ISO and low walk rates isn’t conducive to scoring runs, even if guys get on. I don’t view this as ground-breaking analysis. There is an argument to be made that the performance with RISP was actually more indicative of the true-talent of the offense and that the offense over-performed (with singles) in non-leverage situations. Chew on that for a minute when you consider what changes need to be made.
The roster doesn’t support a mix-and-match line-up very well
We will get into individual analysis in a later post but suffice to say that better defenders who can consistently hit are needed. If you have a good offense, you can carry a (as in one) weak bat who contributes value defensively (read: Molina, circa 2005). Maybe if you have a great offense (say, MVP3) then you could possibly carry 2 glove-only guys. Perhaps. The 2024 Cardinals did NOT have a great (or even good) offense and often carried 2 or 3 weak bats in the line-up, and often tried to make up for it with 2-3 poor defenders who hit. From both a runs scored and a runs allowed viewpoint, the outcome was predictable. And will repeat next year (and the following) if not addressed. Both from an offense and defensive view, the mix-and-match lineup construction doesn’t work well with the talent on this roster. Too often, the Manager ends up having to make poor trade-offs. Too many LH bats against LH pitching. Too many poor fielders behind pitch-to-contact pitchers. And so on.
The bullpen over-performed in 2024
The Cardinals bullpen ranked 4th in average velocity, but was 22rd in K rate. They ranked 8th in FIP and 12th in WAR. Their park-adjusted scores were nice (7th in ERA-) but SIERA a middling 16th. Their LOB% was 7th. Their win probability added was 8th. I think the Cardinals evaluation will be that overall, they constructed a bullpen that got the job done, but over-performed the underlying metrics a bit.
While pitching and defense go together, and offense and baserunning likewise, one place where offense bleeds over and affects pitching is seen in the 2024 results that ties directly to the bullpen. The Cardinals played an unusual amount of 1 run games. The inability to come back and the inability to extend leads put an enormous strain on the plus-side of the bullpen. If the Cardinals expect similar results from the bullpen next year, they will look to address the offense so as to lighten the burden on the relievers, who were collectively out of gas by mid-August. No fault of their own. It seemed every game was tight.
As a matter of analysis, it would be unlikely for the bullpen to repeat the result they achieved this year … winning an unusual number of close games, generally by properly sequencing 3-4 relievers. These outcomes will likely revert to the mean, as Helsley, Romero and others are unlikely to repeat the save, hold and strand rates they accumulated this year. This observation holds true even if the relievers they have are traded and new ones come in.
About that negative pythag…
Also, of the 30 teams in baseball, the Cardinals stand out as the outlier when comparing actual wins-losses to expected wins-losses (ie. pythag). It would not be reasonable to expect them to outperform their pythag results another year. They might do just that, but I don’t see it as a reasonable planning assumption Cardinal’s management would make. The true talent level of the current roster is likely to project in 2025 to be several games under .500, meaning they have more ground to make up in talent than the 2024 final win-loss record suggests. For the Cardinals to project as a bona fide playoff contender, they need to improve the run scoring and run prevention enough to move themselves to a positive run differential of +90 or more. For comparison, this year they improved their differential from -111 to -47. A 64-run improvement. That’s nice. Another 64 run improvement might not be enough to climb into a playoff spot, especially if the bullpen regresses any. Realistically they might need double that improvement this year. All on ~$30m and 2-3 roster spots.
What do they have to build around?
First, we eliminate the area(s) of lesser need that will remain somewhat static. You can’t change everything (at least not overnight).
1. Winn is the SS. Arenado is (likely) the 3B. Both are good defenders that will produce average-to-better offense. Arenado is no longer a 4th place hitter, but he is ok (and likely an unmovable contract). Better to spend resources elsewhere.
If Arenado wants out, they’ll probably accommodate him and then put Gorman at third and see what they have.
2. Figure a Donovan/Saggese combination to man 2B. This is more in pencil, but I’d figure this is their play. It’s a decent bet Weatherholt will displace one or both before long, either way.
3. Gray, Fedde, Mikolas, Pallante make up the first 4 starters. No brainer, there. Matz likely stays and gets viewed as a swingman. This leaves an opening for McGreevy, then Matthews.
Like Arenado, if Gray wants out, fine. Move the contract. Maybe the play is to re-up Gibson then, which merely requires they set a direction on Gray before the World Series ends, so they can decide on Gibson’s option. I’m sure readers would find trading out Gray for Gibson to be un-inspiring, but I’m estimating the Cardinal’s would prefer 1 year of Gibson at $11m than 2 years of Gray at $60m if they are “resetting”.
4. Liberatore, Romero and King make a solid LH side of the bullpen. Throw Matz in there and one wonders if there isn’t an excess that could be used to acquire another more needed resource (or free up $$).
Watch the AFL season. If the results are good, they may view Alex Cornwell as a King alternative for lower $$.
5. Helsley and Fernandez form a pretty decent base for the right side of the bullpen. If Helsley returns.
Here is Gabe’s outstanding take on a Helsley deal. Considering the potential return versus what this bullpen would look like without Helsley, I expect the Cardinals will choose to enter 2025 with Helsley at the back-end.
6. I can easily imagine they choose to go with Pages/Herrera making up the catching duo. They might prefer a different duo, but they only have so many resources and this doesn’t rise to the top of the needs. Look for Contreras’ contract to be moved.
7. I believe they will commit to Walker and not move him. DH or RF, though, is the question.
That is the pillars, if you will. The other spots make up the holes to fill.
What to Add
Given those as the roster “pillars” and given the roster weaknesses, here is what they will want to plug into those spots to improve the overall roster. This may be a multi-year retool:
1. Improve OBP (runners on) and SLG (or ISO), which translates to extra-base hits, which translates to more runs if more runners are on. Short and sweet, they need another .800+ OPS hitter (2 if Contreras is dealt). They need better OBP out of the top 2 spots of the order. Better than Winn and Burleson’s matching .314 OBP.
2. They also need to resolve their splits against LHP, although that is a secondary issue. RH batters who can hit will fix this.
3. They really need to pare down the number of one-dimensional players who either can’t play near average defense or can’t hit above average levels. Both their stadium and their pitching staff rewards good D and abhors mediocre D. One or two of these guys are workable, if they can DH. But all of them together drag down the offense to levels where they can’t score runs reliably and they don’t prevent runs acceptably, either.
4. I can see why they value Siani’s defense, but not in a line-up where there are 2-3 other guys below .700 OPS. Scott is no better. They need a CFer who can field and hit.
5. More of a long-term play, they need to improve speed and athleticism across the board.
A major point of internal analysis in the off-season plan is determine how they view the near-term futures of Gorman and Walker. I have to believe there are doubts inside the organization on whether either will develop into a middle-of-the-order bat. It’s too soon to give up on them, but realistically, if they commit to them as solutions, they are likely going to end up a worse team in 2025.
I don’t know if they can really face this, but if they could, I think a fair analysis would be that if they really believe in Gorman/Walker, they need to go the hard rebuild route and let these guys just play and figure it out. If they aren’t confident, then they need to just move on to Plan B, even if it means trading young guys who go on to success elsewhere (which to me is an over-blown narrative anyway). My expectation is they will double-down on the young guys.
The pitching side is much simpler. To be competitive in the run-prevention arena they’d need one more strong starter, so they can come into the season with both a sound rotation and backup plans when (not if) someone gets hurt or under-performs. If they seek a quick reset for 2026, they need to get started on this soon. Mikolas, Fedde and likely Gray will need replaced by then. An annual trek, they need to replace the RH bridge relief role that Kittredge filled. The rest of the bullpen can be staffed by the Memphis shuttle.
Where will they look to add (or subtract) from the roster?
The ~$30m pool of money isn’t going to solve these problems. Ergo, the need to “reset”. They do have tradeable major league assets that can bring back value: Burleson, Donovan, Nootbar, Walker, Gorman, Herrera, Helsley.
I don’t count Contreras, Gray or Arenado in this group because their contracts are heavy enough they won’t bring back real prospects. Moving their contracts would be about money, not talent acquisition.
To improve the roster, I’d expect one of Donovan and/or Noot will be traded. Donovan is the more redundant of the two. When might be a more open question. This off-season? Next? Trade deadline? Gorman looks like an odd man out in several ways, unless Arenado is moved. They have multiple second baseman (plus Weatherholt) and his big thing (power) isn’t really helping, at least not enough to overcome all the K’s and sub-standard D. Herrera’s bat is really attractive, but they really don’t have a spot for him (unless Contreras goes).
They also have a couple of near major league-ready prospects that would bring back talent: Hence, Matthews. But that is not their style, and not likely to be as they renew emphasis on player development. I just mentioned them to be complete.
Some target areas for improvement
With all that, here are some things the Cardinals could target:
1. An OFer who hits RH, fields the position well and has high OBP or at least high OPS.
2. A 1B who has strong ISO or good OPS.
3. That sound starting pitcher.
Of course, the trade or FA market might not support them acquiring these, especially the OFer or the first baseman, both of which seem to be in short supply. Perhaps they could look at a second baseman with high OBP. Or just ride the young guys and see how it goes in 2025. They may well view this as a two off-season endeavor, to be more competitive in 2026.
A final need, non-specific
The Cardinals are keenly aware that they don’t have any superstar (or even star) caliber playing putting up like 6 WAR. No Pujols, no Ohtani, no Betts. These guys come along once every 20 years or so and you really can’t count on trading for them and the Cardinals don’t sign them as FA. That isn’t going to change when Bloom takes over.
As such, I expect they will continue with their core strategy of trying to be average or better with every spot on the roster they can. Not having 6 WAR players doesn’t mean you can’t win. It just means you can’t carry one-dimensional guys as much, because every spot on the roster has to contribute positively in all facets of the game in order to be competitive.
Next, we’ll look at each player …