How do the Reds stack up? Better than I thought.
I all but wrote off the Reds this season, but I have found that they should be more competitive than they have been in years. Outside of the Cubs, the Brewers, Reds, and Cardinals seem to be right around the same space when it comes to 2025. The Cardinals seem to be the worst on paper, but also the most difficult to project. The Reds have not made all of the best moves or anything, but have quietly assembled a decent team, on paper at least.
The Reds weakness would appear to be its bullpen, but we all know how bullpens go. They come and go, each year being a new adventure of different arms. That weakness could keep them relatively out of contention though, in a tightly grouped NL Central. They may be looking at upgrading that bullpen at the trade deadline if they are doing well. Scratch that, it’s just about guaranteed.
With Ely de la Cruz leading the charge as their star player, the Reds also can lean back on players like Matt McLain, and maybe Tyler Stephenson. But that’s where most of the value lies on this squad, those two or three players. Their outfield is even less scary than the Cardinals. And while their rotation looks better on paper, that is not necessarily so.
The Reds do not have an ace on the level of Sonny Gray. Hunter Greene will be good. But, probably not more than 3 wins above replacement level. That said, that is going by an average of projections. Half the projections think he will be 3 or more, the other half are confident he is not that close to 3. So I came up with the number 2.91 WAR. Nick Martinez may be a surprise #2, making for a decent one two punch. But if projection systems like Steamer and The Bat are correct, he’s just not that good.
Brady Singer and Matt Lodolo are more surefire success stories than some of the Cardinals rotation, but they are also not that impressive. Definitely not big difference makers. Andrew Abbott rounds out the five as probably their fifth starter.
This is a team that is not bad, but is also not particularly good. Sound familiar? Well that could be much of the NL Central. And that is probably how things will shape up. The Cubs may not even run away with it.
It would make the most sense if I were to do this again for the Pirates, but I have grown a little wary of doing these and I’m not sure how close people have been following this series, so I think I will wrap it up before even bothering with the Pirates. Maybe they will make me look like an ass at the end of the season. But that’s just not going to happen, right? Good luck, Pittsburgh.
Time for some polls!
The more I think about it, I think this is just going to be a tightly contested division with no clear runaway winner. I do think the Cubs will win the division, because they just are a little more stacked with talent. But I am also not that scared of Kyle Tucker and Dansby Swanson. Cubs gonna Cub. So I think it’ll be a dogfight 4 team battle, with the poor Pirates team wishing they had different ownership.
Oh yeah, by the way, I did run this without outliers and it only hurt the Reds totals a little bit.
So that wraps up my projections articles for this year. I always enjoy seeing what the consensus projections numbers are in the NL Central. I wish the Cardinals totals gave me a little more confidence, but I also realize they are in a transitional year as they figure out how to implement their new training program, hitting coach, a waiting Chaim Bloom, and figuring out if Oliver Marmol should be their guy, along with can Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker be big producers?
Album Hall of Fame
This week I am going to go with inducting one of my all time favorite bands, Polvo, and their album ‘Today’s Active Lifestyles’. Polvo arose from Chapel Hill’s alternative college rock scene during the early 1990s. They have two of the best guitarists ever, if you have an open ear for alternative tunings and news ways to play the instrument. They blend their over the top reinventing of rock guitar with plenty classic rock tricks so that they straddle the line between familiarity and strange new worlds of sound. If you like weird music, this is a prime example. I hope it blows your mind as much as it has mine over the years. One of the best American bands of all time.