An article I didn’t get to before the season
Entering the 2024 offseason, the Cardinals had a problem that very few teams tend to have: they had too many catchers. Though battered with injuries, Willson Contreras led the pack with a 2.6 fWAR season on the strength of his 140 wRC+. Ivan Herrera had an also impressive 127 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR season. Even the comparatively underwhelming Pedro Pages managed 0.5 fWAR in 218 PAs and that’s with defensive numbers that I think he can and will beat.
Thanks to a more understanding veteran than you will normally find, Contreras solved this issue by moving to 1B. Never known for his defense and with two injuries keeping his bat out of the lineup, it was a natural outcome. I assume the Cardinals planned to move him off catcher all along. Or maybe they didn’t, but had no clue they would be swarmed by catchers in their system.
Contreras saw it coming apparently before they even asked him. I assume he noticed that pitchers loved throwing to Pages and that Herrera had one of the best bats on the team. He did the math and saw three catchers for two spots.
“I told Pedro, ‘Don’t be surprised if I’m playing 1B next year,’” Contreras said.
Pages didn’t believe him. When Contreras signed, he made a big deal about how honored he was to follow in Yadier Molina’s footsteps, so despite the foresight, he was still a little reluctant.
“When they presented me the opportunity to play 1B, I thought about it, I hesitated a little bit. If I move to 1B, I open an opportunity to create a better roster and have more depth. We need Ivan bat and Pages’ defense.”
Both catchers had clear goals heading into the offseason. For Herrera, it was improving his ability to throw out runners and improving his arm strength. At least so far, it has not been promising. His “arm,” which measures a catcher’s max effort throws (the average above a 90 percentile) has actually been noticeably weaker than last season. It has only been two attempts of course. So no reason to overreact.
But last year his “arm” was 81 mph. His two throws have averaged 75.3 mph this year, which currently is dead last among all catchers who have attempted to throw out runners. He has also had a slower pop time. But again, two attempts.
What has not disappointed has been his bat. It is probably fair to say he has been the best hitting catcher in baseball this year. He leads catchers in homers, runs, and RBIs despite having fewer plate appearances than most of the people near him in those stats.
Meanwhile, Pages had his own work to do. He was also not happy with his caught stealing performance. He had an easier fix than “improve arm strength” though.
“It wasn’t arm strength,” Pages said. “It was more my transfer, my transfer last year wasn’t feeling right. It was something me and Poguey worked a lot throughout the season. It wasn’t feeling right. Something was weird, when I was transferring the ball from my glove to my hand. Making sure that gets feeling right again and once that goes, I’ll be just fine.”
So far, so good. He already threw out a runner. The only runner who attempted to steal. His “arm” didn’t register, because I suspect you need multiple attempts, but his exchange of 0.60 seconds was faster than last year’s 0.66 seconds. His arm last year was 85 mph, so he was indeed right that his arm was not the problem.
Pages had another goal in mind. Improve his bat speed. That one he has, at least so far, not accomplished. He has the exact same bat speed of last year, which is interestingly above average with an average bat speed of 72 mph.
Honestly, the big thing you have to figure out with Pages is if the defense matches the scouting and what he did in Springfield. Cause folks, Baseball Prospectus has his defense when he played in Springfield being about as good as what Patrick Bailey did last season. Bailey had an 81 wRC+… and a 4.3 fWAR season. That’s how good Bailey’s defense was and that’s why Pages is getting chances.
Whether his defense didn’t translate and won’t, or maybe he was just adjusting to the big leagues and there’s an adjustment period both offensively and defensively, or maybe we’re dealing with an unreliable defensive sample that doesn’t reflect his true defensive ability. I know I’m already going to be annoyed at the outrage anytime he starts, cause I think it is equally important that we figure out what Pages is too.
There’s another problem brewing, something of a good problem. Jimmy Crooks is in Memphis and has already hit a homer. It took him until midseason to hit his first homer in Springfield. There do not appear to be questions on his defense (although there is a wide range of opinion on how exactly good his defense is). Leonardo Bernal is behind him, although he is at least two years away.
There’s no particular rush yet. We need to wait to see if Herrera can improve his throwing game. Some people think he should still catch if that doesn’t improve. I am not one of those people. Especially with alternatives, which the Cardinals will likely have. We need to wait to see how Pages defense is in his sophomore season. He’s either your typical backup catcher (which the Cardinals clearly don’t view him as) or he’s a defensive-oriented average or better catcher. (Sounds absurd I know, actual good defensive catchers with an 80 wRC+ or better are usually starting-caliber)
This may play out in a few ways. Herrera’s throwing issues may never improve. His offense can likely play anywhere on the field so there’s a chance the Cardinals move a catcher to a different position in back-to-back offseasons. Maybe Pages’ defense never does truly translate. Okay cast him aside for Crooks. Maybe Crooks gets traded. A right player at the right time from a team who needs a catcher would need to emerge in order to trade Crooks.
Maybe Herrera or Pages get traded. Herrera’s bat seems too good and if William Contreras is anything to go by, we definitely wouldn’t get a fair return for Herrera. And I don’t really think defensive-oriented catchers really get anything in trades, so I doubt Pages has much value. So it’s a good, but somewhat tough situation heading the Cardinals’ way.
So, uh, good luck Cardinals. Try to figure out a way to maximize this ideal situation, which surely involves trading someone at some point.