The Metropolitans are expensive and also very injured, but still have a good record.
Since last Tuesday, I would argue the Cardinals have been on quite the run of facing legitimately tough pitchers. They faced Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Aaron Nola, Christopher Sanchez, Zach Wheeler, Framber Valdez, and Hunter Brown, all in a row. That’s a little ridiculous. Ronel Blanco isn’t great and he didn’t pitch great either, but we got him on a getaway day in a day game after a night game. So if it feels like the offense has struggled to get runs more lately than early in the season, that’s one very good excuse why. And they went 4-3 against the group.
With all due respect to the four Mets starters, all of whom are perfectly capable of throwing a gem (and at least one of them will I’m sure), it’s kind of nice to not be staring at this death knell of opposing starters finally. And we’re catching the Mets at a good time. They just lost a series to the Twins. They lost yesterday in extra innings, where they used seven pitchers. The bullpen threw 5.2 IP themselves, assuming Justin Hangenman was considered a follower, and the best relievers were all used.
What they lost
They lost quite a few free agents. Great defender, below average hitter, beloved former Cardinal Harrison Bader left to sign with the Twins. Last year, Luis Severino signed a one-year deal with them to build his free agent value, he succeeded, and he got overpaid by the Athletics. Despite being credited with changing the mood of the clubhouse and having a 2.5 fWAR season, Jose Iglesias was not brought back, going to the Padres. Jose Quintana wasn’t brought back either, signing with the Brewers.
And they also lost three old guys who are still free agents. Adam Ottavino, 13-year vet, signed with the Yankees, but has since been designated for assignment. JD Martinez, also a 13-year-vet, is basically a DH and he only had a 108 wRC+ last year, so he remains a free agent as well. And 37-year-old Brooks Raley, who wasn’t healthy most of last season, is also unsigned.
They declined Phil Maton’s club option and you all know where he went. They outrighted both DJ Stewart, now in the Pirates organization, and Joey Luchessi, now in the Giants organization. Neither are in the majors. They nontendered lefty reliever Alex Young, who pitched in 14 games for them last year after they acquired him from the Reds.
What they added
Well, they went out and signed Juan Soto to a 15-year-deal. That’s a minor acquisition. They traded for centerfielder and strikeout machine Jose Siri, who is currently injured. They signed Frankie Montas to a 2-year-deal. He is also injured. They signed starting pitcher Griffin Canning, who we will see in this series. They bolstered their pen by signing AJ Minter to a 2-year-deal. He’s been very good this year. For their bench, they signed Nick Madrigal, who is already out for the season.
What is the same
Most of the team. They had a few players become free agents who they brought back. The most notable of which is Pete Alonso, currently white hot with a 227 wRC+. They also brought back Sean Manaea, who is currently injured. Jesse Winker become a free agent and then signed with the Mets again. Reliever Ryne Stanek did the same. He hasn’t allowed a run yet.
As for the people who remained under contract or team control, their infield is still Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Mark Vientos at 3B. Jeff McNeil is on the team but on the injured list, so their current 2B is Luisangel Acuña. He is Ronald’s brother and is off to a good start, but the 23-year-old has a .079 ISO and isn’t expected to have much more power than that so very different than his brother.
Tyrone Taylor is taking the CF duties while Siri is hurt. Brandon Nimmo is still in left field. Starling Marte is still in New York as well, but he’s more of a bench player now and when he does play, it’s at DH. Francisco Alvarez is hurt so the catching duo is Luis Torrens and Hayden Senger. They have a lot of injuries. In the bullpen, Edwin Diaz is still closing games.
Thursday – 6:10 PM
Andre Pallante (3.78 ERA/3.71 FIP/3.89 xFIP) vs. Griffin Canning (5.19 ERA/5.26 FIP/4.75 xFIP)
Canning mucked up the Mets’ plans by getting sick, because he was actually supposed to start yesterday. He’s starting tonight instead. He’s made three starts this year and been very mediocre in those starts. Yes, I am still listing last year’s stats. Might be my last preview where I do so.
Pallante also got moved to tonight, but because it was the Cardinals’ plan, not because Pallante got sick. Funny thing about Pallante is that he’s been very unlucky with home runs allowed…. and he’s only two in three starts. That’s right, his HR/FB% is 22.2%, which is about double where you’d expect. Almost 70% of balls hit in play have gone on the ground.
Friday – 6:10 PM
Miles Mikolas (5.35 ERA/4.24 FIP/4.08 xFIP) vs. David Peterson (2.90 ERA/3.67 FIP/4.10 xFIP)
I’m not going to lie. Mikolas threw me for a loop when he was kind of good last start. It ended up being 3 ER in 5 IP, but he was a correctly called strike away from ER in 5 IP. He does seem to have a knack for allowing as many runs as possible. We’ll see if something managed to click or if we’re going to count down the days until he gets released with tonight’s start.
Peterson is a pretty heavy groundball guy – not like Pallante, but a normal heavy groundball guy who manages 50% GB rate or higher. He does walk his fair share of hitters, so if the Cardinals remain patient, he might let them get on base.
Saturday – 3:05 PM
Matthew Liberatore (4.40 ERA/4.11 FIP/4.17 xFIP) vs. Kodai Senga (2.98 ERA/3.63 FIP/3.77 xFIP)
When I said the Cardinals got a bit of a break with starters, they’re still facing solid pitchers, none moreso than Senga, who can really miss bats. Because he made one start last year, those are his stats from 2023. He struck out 29.1% of batters. In three starts this year, he isn’t striking out that many (24.6%), but he’s only allowed 2 ER all season.
Liberatore will get an interesting test against the Mets. They are primarily a right-handed lineup, and the couple lefties he’ll see are their best hitters: Soto and Nimmo. Even switch hitter Lindor is better against left-handed pitchers.
Sunday – 12:40 PM
Sonny Gray (3.84 ERA/3.12 FIP/2.82 xFIP) vs. Clay Holmes (3.66 ERA/2.16 FIP/3.25 xFIP)
Okay I listed Holmes stats this year, because well it’s not very useful to give you his stats as a reliever. Somehow Holmes is striking out more hitters starting than he did in relief last season. It’s only four starts, but it’s not a small difference either. 31.5% compared to 25.1%. He is also walking more and not getting as many groundballs. So he’s been worse on a rate basis, but not as much as you’d think.
I have nothing to say about Gray except I hope his road troubles were a fluke last year. He actually has a better ERA on the road in his career than at home games. So it’s most likely a fluke. But he’ll probably continue pitching better at Busch because of the type of park it is.