Three even pitching matchups means it’s up to the offense to be the difference maker
There are a few baseball myths that persist no matter the quality of the team. For instance, by sheer coincidence, fans have thought the Cardinals were bad against soft-tossing lefties the entire time I’ve been a fan. Weirdly, just about every fanbase thinks the same thing. It’s a wonder Rich Hill hasn’t won a Cy Young. Another thing fans always seem think: Cardinals suck against rookie pitchers. I’m sure there is a name to this phenomenon or maybe it’s a cognitive bias, but there’s something where fans just do not remember when the Cardinals actually hit rookie pitchers or a soft-tossing lefty.
If I sound like I’m accusing you of something, here’s something I have trouble with that I’m sure isn’t actually true, but my brain really kind of believes it. Ryan Helsley seems to always be terrible when he absolutely cannot be terrible. His blown saves seem to occur at the worst possible time. Yesterday certainly qualified. I’m sure this is because I view every blown save as the worst possible time when it’s a mediocre team, I recognize that.
With that said, yeah I think blowing game 1 of a doubleheader where Game 2 looks like a foregone conclusion loss even before every good member of the bullpen pitched… that’s about as bad as it gets. You can criticize pitch selection, but he didn’t locate anything that inning. So that sucked. But we have three winnable games ahead.
What they lost
They let Yasmani Grandal walk in free agency, and he’s actually still a free agent interestingly. I did not realize he had such a bounceback year last year. Only 36. They also let Aroldis Chapman walk, which you probably know having seen him pitch for the Red Sox yesterday. Also, they let Jalen Beeks leave for the Diamondbacks, and he’s a left-handed reliever who doesn’t really strike many hitters out, so no big loss there.
They non-tendered Bryan de la Cruz, who left for the Braves, and Connor Joe, who left for the Padres. They traded perfectly serviceable Luis Ortiz, among two other prospects, for a bigger prospect in the “What they added section.”
What they added
Well, we’ll start with the trade. They got Spencer Horwitz, who had a 1.9 fWAR season with a 127 wRC+ for the Guardians. He is currently injured, so we won’t see him. They signed veteran left-handed reliever Tim Mayza, coming off a poor season. Two players on their bench were acquired with the past few months. Enmanuel Valdez was acquired in a trade and Alexander Canario was purchased.
For the first time since 2021, Adam Frazier is a Pirate again as their starting 2B. He was a Pirate for the first 5 and a half years in his career, and clearly the best ones of it. They also signed Tommy Pham, on a mission to be with every NL Central before he retires. Lastly, we’ll miss him completely, but they signed Andrew Heaney, who is actually coming off a good year, so shrewd move there.
What stayed the same
The players are the same, but they’re are actually some differences. They moved Oneil Cruz to CF, which is not going well so far. Isiah Kiner-Falefa took over at SS, and that is going well so far. They have one of the more pathetic 1B arrangements if we’re being honest. It’s backup catcher Endy Rodriguez on days where he isn’t catching, and Valdez – a 72 wRC+ hitter last year – on the days when he’s needed at catcher or needs a day off. Joey Bart is their primary catcher. Bryan Reynolds is partially injured so he’s only DHing right now. And they’re still trying to figure out if Ke’Bryan Hayes or Jack Suwinski can hit.
And I know this is in the wrong section, but their bullpen is almost completely new. David Bednar has been sent down and we’re seeing Carmen Mlodzinski tonight. Half of their bullpen was acquired in the past four months, another claimed off waivers in September of 2024, and a sixth claimed off waivers in June of last year.
Monday – 5:40 PM
Matthew Liberatore (4.40 ERA/4.11 FIP/4.17 xFIP) vs. Carmen Mlodzinski (3.38 ERA/3.36 FIP/4.18 xFIP)
Slightly misleading for Mlodzinski. He was in the bullpen, throwing 50.2 IP in 40 appearances. Which sure he had a bit more length than your average bullpen guy but it’s still a far cry from throwing 4-5 innings per start. He had a weirdly promising first start by the numbers that was bad by the results. Over 60% of balls were on the ground and he didn’t allow a homer. But 53.8% of balls hit in play were hits, and kind of hard to get good results from that.
Liberatore had a promising start that comes with no qualifications. Long-term I do kind of think he’s going to need to strike people out at some point, but if he somehow never walks anyone, I suppose I can deal with a 18% K rate. He also could benefit from 67% of his hits not coming in the same inning, that would be helpful.
Sonny Gray (3.84 ERA/3.12 FIP/2.82 xFIP) vs. Paul Skenes (1.96 ERA/2.44 FIP/2.54 xFIP)
If the Cardinals can get 10 hits tomorrow, which seems more doable than this game, this one is really going to test that streak. Skenes alloed 94 hits in 133 innings last year and has allowed 6 total in his two starts this year. He doesn’t seem to have lost a step this year.
If last year is anything to go by, Gray is going to have a fantastic start. Because every time we faced Skenes last year, the starter matched him. In terms of earned results anyway. Cardinals didn’t always win, but the Pirates’ offense couldn’t give Skenes a comfortable lead.
Erick Fedde (3.30 ERA/3.86 FIP/4.12 xFIP) vs. Mitch Keller (4.25 ERA/4.08 FIP/4.08 xFIP)
Keller has had one good start and one very bad start so far this year. The bad start came up against the Yankees, so he can be forgiven for that. But he had a bad enough start that despite being 1 for 2 in quality starts, he has a 7.45 ERA. Don’t let that fool you.
Fedde has had one good start and one very bad start. The bad start happened at Fenway Park, so I think we can forgive him for that. If he bounces back on Wednesday. Fedde’s bad start was so bad that his advanced stats are absolutely awful despite going 1 for 2 in quality starts.
Interesting series actually. Skenes is better than Gray, but this is pretty even as far as pitching matchups go. In every single game. And the Pirates offense is worse than the Cardinals, so hopefully that’s the difference.