Also a chance to vote for the #17 prospect
We are back to ranking the top 20 prospects in the system. And barring breaking news interrupting the schedule, all my next posts will be about the top 20. It’s seemingly been a long time since we visited the ranking, but it was just last week. I actually had no memory of who was winning or who was close, but the first comment on that post said it was a horse race between the two guys who ended up being top 2 in voting. And they were separated by two votes. In the end, Darlin Saladin won the vote to be the 16th best prospect.
You will surely need reminding of what the list is at this point, so here are the 16 best prospects according to the VEB readers so far:
- JJ Wetherholt, SS
- Quinn Mathews, LHP
- Tink Hence, RHP
- Thomas Saggese, 2B/3B
- Jimmy Crooks III, C
- Michael McGreevy, RHP
- Chase Davis, OF
- Leonardo Bernal, C
- Cooper Hjerpe, LHP
- Tekoah Roby, RHP
- Chen-Wei Lin, RHP
- Gordon Graceffo, RHP
- Sem Robberse, RHP
- Matt Koperniak, OF
- Yairo Padilla, SS
- Darlin Saladin, RHP
Comparable Player Corner
We have a straightforward category this time. I have run quite a few comparable player polls at this point, and that means there have been some losers. You are going to be voting on the position player prospects who lost their vote to someone on this list right now. If you’re a big fan of one of these prospects, but they lost, this is the chance to get them back on the voting.
Joshua Baez, a 22-year-old is about four days removed from being called a 21-year-old. One of those late June birthdays. Baez tried his hand at High A and was dead average with a very high strikeout rate, and for the last 15 games of the year, absolutely destroyed Low A competition.
Sammy Hernandez, acquired in the Genesis Cabrera trade, managed to hit for a 118 wRC+ in Low A, and perform well in the 8 games he played at High A. He’ll be 21 and playing most of next season at High A.
Ian Petrutz, a 22-year-old who was selected in the 12th round last year. Seemingly out of nowhere, he managed a 172 wRC+ in Low A in 28 games, mostly on the strength of an elite approach. It did come with no power (.089 ISO). Again I imagine those are strong enough numbers that he’ll be in High A.
Cesar Prieto, a left-handed 2B/3B, who is somehow still not Rule 5 eligible. He had a 95 wRC+ last season with a .296 BABIP with career highs in ISO and HRs. He will be playing next season at 26.
New addition
No real controversy here. Luis Gastelum won the vote pretty handily over Matt Svanson, to the point where I’m not real sure I need to add another reliever to the voting by the end of this. I’m not even sure who I would add. Gastelum won easily over both of the pitchers he faced. So he’s the relief addition to the voting.
Ian Bedell, RHP – 25
Stats (AA): 12 G, 64.2 IP, 29.5 K%, 7.1 BB%, 36 GB%, .265 BABIP, 4.73 ERA/4.59 FIP/3.46 xFIP
AAA: 9 G, 43 IP, 16.4 K%, 12.7 BB%, 37.7 GB%, .215 BABIP, 5.02 ERA/7.03 FIP/6.68 xFIP
BP: “The stuff is not overpowering but the arsenal is deep, allowing Bedell to turn over a lineup and stick as a starter.” (From June)
It had not occurred to me, and it really should have, that spring training is likely to influence the results at this point. If someone looks good in spring training, it’ll affect the voting. Ian Bedell has made only one appearance, but he looked good in that appearance. You should probably not read too much into that appearance, but I also understand it’s difficult not to.
Won-Bin Cho, OF – 21
LYR: #11
Stats (High A): 107 G, 428 PAs, .227/.307/.305, 8.4 BB%, 31.3 K%, .078 ISO, .343 BABIP, 81 wRC+, 74 DRC+
BP: “Cho profiles favorably in the field, a solid corner outfield defender thanks to above-average speed and adequate reads, but is likely stretched in center field.”
Cho is actually a perfect example of why spring will probably affect the results. Cho was not invited to spring training. All you have for Cho is to look at his bad stats. Which is certainly true of Bedell’s AAA numbers too, but now we have new info. We do not have new info on Cho. I will remind people again, he is going to be repeating High A at just 21-years-old. He does have time.
Luis Gastelum, RHP – 23
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Low A): 30 G, 48 IP, 34.5 K%, 5.4 BB%, 41.9 GB%, .359 BABIP, 2.81 ERA/2.47 FIP/2.12 xFIP
BP: He’s a 23-year-old relief prospect who “broke out” last season in Low A, so naturally BP hasn’t written a word about him.
It’s no wonder Gastelum was selected as the best relief prospect of the system. Those numbers are unbelievable. It is odd that he has a .359 BABIP against, but then again not many balls in play were hit against him, so a higher chance of wacky small sample numbers I suppose.
Michael Helman, 28 – IF/OF
LYR: Not in system
Stats (AAA): 72 G, 314 PAs, .271/.350/.487, 9.2 BB%, 24.2 K%, .217 ISO, .323 BABIP, 116 wRC+
BP: Much the same as Koperniak, I don’t know that BP has ever written a word about Helman.
Since I’m on a spring training kick here, I will say I think pitchers and hitters are vastly different when it comes to putting too much stock into spring with the voting. Like I don’t really think how Helman did in the first few games – or first 10 games – is really going to influence the voting. A pitcher’s stuff looking good will. A hitter going 3-10 with two doubles? Probably not moving the needle, negative or positive.
Brian Holiday, 22 – RHP
LYR: Not in system
Stats (College): 16 GS, 113 IP, 28.6 K%, 4.2 BB%, .089 WHIP, 2.95 ERA
BP: “Because he’s short—listed at 5-foot-11—and has visual effort in his motion, he’s going to carry a future reliever tag until he doesn’t, but if the Cardinals are truly improving on pitcher development, Holiday has the type of arsenal they should start to see more successful outcomes with.”
There are two players that come to mind with Holiday. There’s the extreme best case, which is Quinn Mathews, and the extreme worst case, which is Griffin Roberts. I’m not comparing Holiday to them as pitching prospects, just the idea of having to rank a pitching prospect with no pro innings. (in Roberts’ case, no real starts). They could make unseen improvements and explode. Or their arm could explode.
Travis Honeyman, OF – 23
LYR: #20
Stats (Low A): 14 G, 60 PAs, .321/.367/.446, 5 BB%, 13 K%, .125 ISO, .375 BABIP, 133 wRC+
BP: Honeyman has a punchy little line-drive oriented swing, a tight barrel loop that generates explosive impact out in front of the plate. He’s geared to turn and burn, sending most of his contact to the pull side.
Okay I may have overstated the spring impact, because I did not realize how many guys on this list are not actually compiling stats at spring training. Well, the impact is real I’m sure. It just won’t affect many players. Honeyman is not a non-roster invitee, which makes sense they probably want him to play in more than 20 games in a season first.
Jonathan Mejia, 2B/SS – 20
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Complex): 205 PAs, .299/.395/.425, 12.2 BB%, 25.4 K%, .126 ISO, .405 BABIP, 127 wRC+
BP: They have spoken about him, but it is extremely dated (from 2023) and things have changed too much to share.
Mejia has taken an interesting route to where he is right now. I assume he gets his second crack at Low A next season. His first crack was a bit of an overambitious promotion in 2023 that effectively was a lost season for Mejia. And it’s not clear he should be considered a SS prospect anymore, although he did still play some last season.
Max Rajcic, RHP – 23
LYR: #12
Stats (AA): 25 G, 131 IP, 23.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 39.2 GB%, .314 BABIP, 4.33 ERA/4.41 FIP/4.03 xFIP/4.59 DRA
BP: “He has a very pretty looking but humpy curveball, though his changeup has actually taken a step forward to claim the title of his best offspeed offering (to go along with various flavors of slider).”
I know I’m beating a dead horse, but I cannot emphasize enough that his stats in AA are better than league average. That’s just the run environment. I’m not sure there’s anything I can say to make his stuff look better, but his stats are better than you’d think, that’s for sure.
Rainiel Rodriguez, C – 18
LYR: Not in organization
Stats (DSL): 41 G, 184 PAs, .345/.462/.683, 16.3 BB%, 13.6 K%, .338 ISO, .345 BABIP, 186 wRC+
BP: “He hits the ball pretty hard for his age, makes enough contact, controls the zone well, and might stick behind the dish.”
What Rodriguez’s ranking really comes down to is how much you value DSL stats, which is probably not a lot because he would be on the list already if they were valued. But there’s a place to rank a player like Rodriguez where the DSL stats – and the fact that he plays catcher for now – matters enough to put him on the list. In theory anyway.
Zack Showalter, RHP – 21
LYR: #21 (He was close to winning 20th vote)
Stats (Low A): 24 G, 34.1. IP, 38.6 K%, 11.8 BB%, 43.9 GB%, .373 BABIP, 2.62 ERA/2.48 FIP/3.02 xFIP
BP: “His low-90s, sub-4 VAA fastball out of an extremely funky delivery was absurdly dominant against Low-A hitters, and he also weaponized a sweeper against same-side batters for a very tough look.”
Admittedly, Showalter is a more appealing prospect if the Cardinals plan to stretch him out to starter. And I have to think they will, because a 20-year-old striking out 38.6% of hitters in Low A would seem dumb to confine to relief already, injury issues notwithstanding. Now, the injury issues are very much real so I do get treating him like he’s a relief prospect at the same time.