Encapsulated in 3000 words
This article will wander into what other teams are doing with their off-season. My curiosity is just a sense of winter boredom, since the Cardinals appear to be hamstrung by their large, underperforming contracts that are chock full of No Trade Clauses. So much for flexibility.
Sarcasm aside, the Cardinals do have 3 priority needs: Their young players need to play better, they need to unburden the underperforming contracts, and they need to re-calibrate their development system. It turns out none of those needs can be acquired in the traditional off-season sense of trades and free agent signing. It turns out to be hard to trade a player with a No-Trade-Clause. Go figure!
While the Cardinals sit on the sidelines and work through their non-traditional needs list, I thought I’d spend a little time checking out what other teams needed and what they acquired. I researched various off-season needs articles by the beat writers for each team. They’d know what their teams need, right? We do have to factor in some amount of skepticism, because these lists are influenced by the desire of the home team to build up or tamp down expectations (and use the writers to convey that) and also by the writer’s own biases, having watched the team all year. But we will work with what we have. Here is what I found:
• 21 of the 30 teams indicated a priority for the off-season was to acquire one or more arms for the starting rotation. I thought about this some and wondered who the 9 lucky ones were that don’t really need pitching. Mariners, Twins, Rays, Cubs, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Marlins, Nationals. I kind of wondered about the Rockies and Twins self-assessment, but I buy the others.
• 13 teams need outfield help, the vast majority of it at corner OF, preferring RH hitting with a bit of power. Sound familiar? There is a dearth of what the Cardinals need most.
• 12 teams indicated a need for bullpen help. I suspect this number is more like 30, but I’m guessing everyone just assumes they always need to bolster the bullpen, so they don’t put it in the priority list. Particularly non-contending teams. Bullpen seems to be one of those things teams focus on when they think the offense, defense and starting pitching is strong enough to compete.
• Apparently, there is good depth in the game at catcher and middle infielder as only a few teams indicated needs in this area. Too funny. One of the few areas the Cardinals have depth to deal from, no one needs help in. Maybe this starts to explain the lack of action.
• And no, the Rays did not list a place to play as an off-season priority, but it became one.
So, who went out and addressed their needs?
Yankees – Lost out on Juan Soto. Acquired Goldy (1b), Bellinger (CF), Fried (SP) and Williams (RP). To me, even without Soto, they seem more well-rounded.
Dodgers – Re-signed Teoscar Hernandez (OF) and Blake Treinen (RP) and signed Snell (SP) and Sasaki (SP) to address their top 3 needs, along with Yates and Scott (RP). They also added Korean import Kim to help with the middle infield, even though the middle infield didn’t appear to need a lot of help.
Funny that last year’s two World Series teams were the first to complete their homework in the off-season. Is that a reflection of well-run front-offices or just that these guys had fewer needs and could be more surgical (and less constrained by money issues)?
Brewers – This team only listed two primary needs. A starter and some infield help, in recognition of their pending loss of Adames. They got Durbin and Cortes from the Yankees to fill those needs. For Devin Williams. So, the Brewers ostensibly join the other 29 teams needing to bolster the back-end. However, mission accomplished. They will undoubtedly still want to pick off some below-radar talent late in the cycle, as they always do.
White Sox – Peculiarly, the White Sox really couldn’t identify a priority need – they need everything. And in one form – young prospects. Their assessment was refreshingly honest. But then again, the whole team performed below replacement level, so perhaps the PR types just decided they couldn’t put that much lipstick on the pig. They accomplished their goal of prospect depth just with the Crochet trade.
Who went out and made moves that seemed to mis-match their stated needs?
Caveat: These cases are where I really wonder if the stated, reported needs are always a valid reflection of what was going on internally in these organizations. These “mismatches” may reflect the quality of the reporting more than a true gap between needs and actions by the front-office.
Diamondbacks – Needing a DH, 1B and bullpen help, they filled one gap with the Josh Naylor trade. But the blockbuster Corbin Burnes signing made a seeming strength stronger (?) and leaves the gaps unfilled. I found this peculiar. In trying to find a rationale for this, I wondered if the medicals on some of their stalwart starters aren’t great, and if starting pitcher emerged as a need after the off-season got underway. For certain, Corbin Burnes is not a bad insurance policy. But he can’t DH.
Mets – They didn’t appear to really feel like outfield was a key need and yet they broke the bank to sign Juan Soto. A generational talent for sure, but their main needs remain. They prioritized a starter and a corner IF with some pop to replace Pete Alonso (turns out it was Alonso himself), but even if that resolves they seem unsure about 3B. They did re-sign Manaea and brought in Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes along with a flyer on Griffin Canning to bolster their rotation. I’m using “bolster” in the most optimistic sense here.
Reds – Needing offense (from anywhere), outfield help and catching help were their indicated priorities. They acquired catcher Trevino from the Yanks and pitcher Martinez took the QO for $21m (odd move for a small market team). They traded Jonathen India (their best OBP guy?) for a pitcher (Singer). Then they traded a Competitive Round A pick and a prospect for Gavin Lux. I can’t wait to see how the beat writer summarizes this Fisherman’s Stew. Do we consider Austin Hays outfield help? They did pick up one of the Rodgers twins for their bullpen.
Who made quality in-roads but couldn’t quite complete the assignment?
Astros – The Astros went into the off-season needing at least one corner IF, anticipating the potential loss of Bregman and the failed Abreau experiment. They also wanted another starter and…drumroll…more bullpen help. They acquired Paredes and Walker to nail down their corner IF spots and close the door on Bregman (slam!) and Arenado (click!). Somehow their beat writer missed the small matter that the Astros were going to need OF help after trading one Kyle Tucker. Altuve to left? They still need a pitcher. Some boxes get checked, some remain unchecked.
Athletics – Their beat writer indicated they wanted two starting pitchers and a third baseman. Springs and Luis Severino would seem to close the deal on starters, leaving an opening at third. Somehow, the writer missed that what they really needed was to get to a $105m payroll to avoid a union grievance if they don’t spend 150% of their revenue sharing $$ ($70m) on payroll. So, the Rooker extension was important to them, too. That A’s have some young talent and if this spending results in an infusion of new talent, Sacramento fans might have something to cheer.
Blue Jays – Needing bullpen help, a starter and a RH OFer, they looked like they were going to get shut out as they prepared for their final go-around with their soon-to-be free-agents core. They did accomplish getting an OFer with the signing of Santander and a starter with the Scherzer. The bullpen remains unfinished business.
Cubs – Going in, their priorities indicated some additional offense particularly of the ISO variety, bullpen help (who doesn’t?), and someone to man third. I believe they saw themselves as pretty solid but maybe had a desire to move Suzuki to DH and shave a few bucks off the payroll on top of the talent needs. They outdid themselves, acquiring Tucker from Houston and letting Cody Bellinger skate off to New York for a reliever, little BoPeep or something like that. Right now, all they have to do to complete the assignment is find a competent third baseman. Any idea where one might be available? Ryan Pressly deepens the bullpen, but he can’t play third. Perhaps they improved enough elsewhere that third can be left to a prospect.
Giants – The Giants started the off-season in search of Shortstop, Starting help and a boost to their outfield. Signing Willy Adames and Justin Verlander helped with the first two goals, but they have yet to accomplish outfitting their outfield. Worse for them, they are chasing the Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Padres. A Padre meltdown looms, so there is that.
Guardians – I put them in the done/mostly done category. Their first two priorities were SP1 and SP2, followed by some offense from a corner OF spot (a recurring theme this winter). Then they dealt away their CF (Straw) and didn’t do much else with the OF. They did add Sewald to the BP. In a series of swaps they dealt away their 2B (Gimenez), 1B (Horowitz) and ended up with like 6 pitchers. With the Twins and White Sox struggling and Tigers having trouble taking the next step, this is probably the right year for the Guardians to reload.
Orioles – The Orioles approached their off-season needs as starting help (to offset the significant loss of Burnes), outfield help (to offset the loss of Santander) and a need to beef up their bullpen. They got Morton for the rotation and O’Neill for the outfield. Assuredly, they’ll pick some arms out of the reliever bargain bin, so while they are not quite done at time of writing, they will undoubtedly do this and declare success. Are they a better team?
Phillies – Coming into the off-season needing bullpen help foremost, plus outfield help and a starter if they could find one, they acquired ordan Romano (RP) and Max Kepler (OF) to fill the first two holes. The starting pitching market evaded them, unless they view Joe Ross as a solution.
Rangers – The Ranger, as everyone does, needed bullpen help, plus they sought a corner IF bat and a starter. They re-signed Eovaldi and acquired Burger from the Marlins to complete the last two needs. Relievers are often the last to get addressed, so they may yet complete the task, although it appears that they have missed out on the premium relievers in both the trade and FA markets.
Rays – They started out with two main needs – a catcher and some offense (they were like 29th in baseball offensively). They acquired Danny Jansen to fill the need at C and seemed content to rely on internal options for the offense and the unwritten but probably needed bullpen help. A late signing of Kim was interesting. Subtly, they have reduced K’s up the middle (Siri was dealt away) and added some offense without sacrificing defense. The sum of their changes may be greater than the parts. They are also still trying to deal with the loss of the SS Wander Franco. They are counting on improved health of their starting pitchers, too.
Royals – The Royals stated needs were more offense, in both OBP and ISO forms and some starting pitching. They re-upped Michael Wacha and added Lorenzen to flesh out their rotation, continuing the MLB trend of investing in older, established pitching. They acquired India from the Reds, which should help their OBP situation. Adding power has proved more elusive for them. A late add of Estevez to their bullpen serves to confirm the suspicion that most teams need bullpen help, even if they don’t list it as a priority.
Tigers – Came into the off-season needing at least one starter and a RH bat. They signed Alex Cobb (SP) and T. Kahnle (RP) to help with the pitching side. They re-signed Jack Flaherty.
Who achieved one of their goals?
Braves – Just when I thought I was going to add the Braves to the list of teams that did mostly nothing in the off-season (like our Cardinals), they went and signed J. Profar to solve their need for a corner OFer. I’m using “solve” in the broadest sense here. Talk about a guy cashing in off a peak year. They still need pitching help both of the starter and reliever variety.
Pirates – The Pirates teeter on the brink of being a team without a plan, except they really do have a plan – one made by cheap ownership, so the plan doesn’t really involve being particularly competitive. Their listed needs were 1B, corner OF and relievers. They traded away pitching (primarily Luis Ortiz) for Horowitz to fill their 1B need and appear to have called it a day.
Red Sox – They also started with two main needs – a starter and RH hitting OF with some pop. They unloaded prospects to get Crochet (SP) but let O’Neill skate away. Most of the hot-stove talk has been Bregman/Arenado, which seems a mismatch to their identified needs. None of those guys play the outfield. Rumors, being what they are, haven’t translated into transactions.
Who stood on the side of the road and watched the bus go by?
Padres – The went into the off-season needing a catcher (or two), another starter and perhaps a corner OFer with a little bit of pop. I’m not sure where the Rizzo acquisition fits in this equation. They see themselves as a complete team, from what I read, so perhaps none of these needs were particularly urgent. Their emerging ownership drama isn’t exactly a Betty Crocker recipe for off-season success, either. What an ugly mess. And just when that organization started getting things together. I suspect this won’t end well.
Mariners – The Mariners came into the off-season seeking help around the infield. They do have a plethora of Top 100 positional prospects but ended up doing practically nothing. They did discover that their stadium suppresses offenses even more drastically than Coors Field enhances it. When you find yourself longing for one of their pitchers, remember that T-Mobile is to pitching what Coors is to hitting. But they can’t trade stadiums. A totally quiet off-season for Jerry DiPoto. A bit weird, but I’m guessing they are evaluating that the Astros will come back to them a bit and banking on a break-through rookie (or two) to fill the positional hole(s). They did re-sign Polanco late in the off-season. I’m wondering if signing a guy they let go out of disappointment is an accomplishment, or an acknowledgement of defeat.
What about the teams that don’t have a discernible plan?
This is a Cardinal blog, right? For all the anger and angst over Cardinal management philosophies (and related choices), this group below represents a sanity check on those strong emotions. I would definitely NOT want to be a fan of these franchises.
Angels – Coming off a 99-loss season, they have needs. Probably difficult to prioritize, but they came up with starting and relief pitching and infield help. So, they signed Jorge Soler. DH. For pitching, they went the quantity road with Kikuchi, Hendricks and got Kevin Newman and Yoan Moncada on the infield front. The acquisitions match the needs, right? OMG.
Marlins – They are more than a year removed from a playoff appearance and have undergone serious player and management turnover since. Their only identified need was OFFENSE. Which is fair, they have none. Their opening tactic was to trade away Burger. Not sure how that helped. They traded Luzardo, so the implied strength in pitching is weakened. I’m not sure what they are trying to do.
Rockies – To be fair, they seem to have a bit of a plan of focusing on their young prospects. They seem to feel that they have young pitching that is close. Apparently, they have not yet discovered TINSTAAPP. They had identified needs for second base, plus any OFFENSE, plus the usual bullpen bolstering. Then the Rockies non-tendered second baseman Brendan Rodgers and pitcher Cal Quantrill. After non-tendering Rodgers, they signed Thairo Estrada to man the keystone. OK. It’s hard to parse the jumble here, except to note that what they are doing is getting younger and cheaper.
Twins – It may seem awkward to lump the Twins into a group that represents some of the most poorly managed franchises in baseball. It’s not the Twins lack a plan, per se, they are merely in limbo awaiting an ownership change (which may be complete by Opening Day), which then will result in plans, directions and front office changes. From a baseball standpoint, they need some right-handed hitters (along with everyone else). But, being in limbo, they haven’t done much. They have the look of complete tear-down and rebuild in their near future.
Notes and Observations
As we draw to mid-February, we begin to recognize that the traditional off-season doesn’t quite have an ending anymore. Players such as Alex Bregman are still out on the market even as Spring Training sites start opening their gates to in-bound players.
On top of that, both the Padres and Twins seem poised to unload some players, as each has their own emerging ownership (and broadcast revenue) issues. How the market reacts to these conditions will be interesting to watch. Who has roster and payroll space to take on such players? A lot of GM/POBO types aim to have a plan in place by now and work to get to the end of Spring Training and see what they have before adjusting. Early to mid-Spring Training moves are avoided by this crowd because of how disruptive they can be to everyone.
And who will trust that players acquired very late in the cycle will be ready to go on/near Opening Day? Recent experiences with guys like Montgomery and Snell, along with the original (Greg Holland, remember him?) suggest that missing even parts of Spring Training result in significant performance degradation early in the season.