A lot of the top prospects seen here, for obvious reasons.
Welcome to the last update until one of us writes about the performances of the players invited to the AFL. I’ll just get right to it.
AA
Tink Hence, RHP – 21 (#2 prospect on VEB’s list)
Stats (AA): 20 GS, 79.2 IP, 34.1 K%, 8.1 BB%, 41.7 GB%, 2.71 ERA/2.51 FIP/2.62 xFIP
For as much grief as I give you guys when I feel you’ve made a poor choice on these lists (Moises Gomez comes to mind), you nailed the Hence over Roby pick. So props. He had an excellent season and to my mind is suffering from prospect fatigue? Or maybe too much concern with his injury history which is rather short honestly. He’s 21. He has time to build up his innings.
Tekoah Roby, RHP – 22 (#4 prospect on VEB’s list)
Stats (AA): 7 GS, 33.1 IP, 21.4 K%, 7.8 BB%, 37.4 GB%, 6.75 ERA/6.59 FIP/4.19 xFIP
Hard to judge because he spent most of the year injured. Little surprised he wasn’t sent to the AFL to build up innings, but he had already been to the AFL in the past.
Cooper Hjerpe, LHP – 23 (#7 prospect on VEB’s list)
Stats (High A): 11 GS, 37.2 IP, 35.2 K%, 12.6 BB%, 50.6 GB%, .297 BABIP, 3.35 ERA/3.57 FIP/3.38 xFIP
AA: 4 GS, 14.2 IP, 35.1 K%, 14 BB%, 24.1 GB%, .207 BABIP, 3.07 ERA/2.32 FIP/3.63 xFIP
Not much of a sample on his AA games, but the important lesson is that he didn’t poop the bed. The same concerns with him are still present though, as he was never asked to face more than 17 batters and he was injured for the 2nd half of the season.
Chase Davis, OF – 22 (#8 prospect on VEB list)
Stats (Low A): 315 PAs, .232/.337/.401, 12.7 BB%, 25.1 K%, .169 ISO, .293 BABIP, 111 wRC+
High A: 129 PAs, .301/.388/.451, 10.1 BB%, 22.5 K%, .150 ISO, .383 BABIP, 144 wRC+
AA: 39 PAs, .250/.308/.444, 7.7 BB%, 20.5 K%, .194 ISO, .269 BABIP, 103 wRC+
What an odd season. If you’re one to check on such things, since his AA stint was so short, I just added the playoff numbers. In the playoffs, he went 2-8 with a homer and three strikeouts. So less walks, more strikeouts, more power than his first 31 PAs. I think he would have ended with around a 103 wRC+ so oddly (less OBP, more slugging), I probably didn’t need to go through the trouble.
Max Rajcic, RHP – 22 (#12 prospect by VEB)
Stats (AA): 25 G, 131 IP, 23.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 39.2 GB%, .314 BABIP, 4.33 ERA/4.41 FIP/4.03 xFIP
Whoa, okay his season stats ended up pretty good. As a reminder, the high minors are big offensive environments. He actually struck out more and got more groundballs in AA than he did in High A (21.9% and 36.4 GB% in High A). He walked a little more (7.7 BB%), but not by much. When you factor in the run environments, he had a better season in AA than in High A.
Jimmy Crooks III, C – 22 (#16 prospect by VEB)
Stats: 371 PAs, .321/.410/.498, 11.6 BB%, 21 K%, .178 ISO, .390 BABIP, 156 wRC+
Only by the depth of the Cardinals’ catching is why Crooks spent nearly the entire season in AA. That and, I suspect, his lack of power in the 1st half. He hit one homer and had a .101 ISO through June 22nd. Hard to trust a BABIP heavy line with little power. After that arbitrary date, he hit 9 homers and had a .247 ISO. So the power came.
Matt Svanson, RHP – 25 (#18 prospect by VEB)
Stats (AA): 53 G, 63.2 IP, 20.8 K%, 8.8 BB%, 52.7 GB%, .342 BABIP, 2.69 ERA/3.93 FIP/4.08 xFIP
Svanson started very slow, but ended up with a pretty good line. He was also Springfield’s closer, converting 27 saves with no blown saves. Yes, no blown saves. I do wish he started stronger so we could see him in AAA. He at least plays the one position where age matters less than any other (relief pitcher).
Trent Baker, RHP – 25 (Selected for AFL)
Stats: 22 G, 81 IP, 22.7 K%, 12 BB%, 36.1 GB%, .295 BABIP 4.89 ERA/4.72 FIP/4.57 xFIP
Honestly, I’m just sharing these stats because he’s heading to the AFL. He’s got to be destined for the bullpen next year.
Edwin Nunez, RHP – 22 (#28 prospect by Fangraphs)
Stats: 29 G, 79.2 IP, 20.4 K%, 16.9 BB%, 30.2 GB%, 7.68 ERA/6.12 FIP/6.25 xFIP
Because of Jordan Hicks, Nunez was tried at starting pitcher. I mean they won’t say that’s why, but it’s why. Didn’t go well. It actually went worse when he was moved back to the bullpen, as he walked 24 guys in 21 innings. I don’t think the Cards have to worry about protecting him so that’s a bright side.
Leonardo Taveras, RHP – 25 (#32 prospect by Fangraphs)
Stats: 47 G, 65.1 IP, 23.1 K%, 14.6 BB%, 35.4 GB%, .292 BABIP, 4.27 ERA/5.02 FIP/5.21 xFIP
I want someone to believe in me like Fangraphs believes in extremely old relief prospects with electric stuff whose stuff hasn’t really translated into results.
Jeremy Rivas, SS – 21
Stats (AA): 459 PAs, .263/.349/.311, 10 BB%, 18.5 K%, .048 ISO, .325 BABIP, 94 wRC+
He’s young and elite at defense, but man it’s hard to buy Rivas stock, because a .048 ISO in Springfield is really, really not a good sign for future MLB success. Like there’s no power, and then “will he even get a double in the majors” power. He doesn’t need to hit a little, but he does need to hit more than Lance Lynn.
Noah Mendlinger, OF – 23
Stats (AA): 401 PAs, .282/.356/.338, 7.2 BB%, 12.5 K%, .056 ISO, .326 BABIP, 102 wRC+
Mendlinger seems to have stagnated as a prospect, which is a shame because he was an undrafted free agent and it would be very cool for him to carve out an MLB career.
Nathan Church, OF – 23
Stats (AA): 541 PAs, .268/.331/.373, 7.9 BB%, 11.1 K%, .106 ISO .286 BABIP, 100 wRC+
It is impressive that Church’s K/BB numbers are holding steady still and he has improved his power every season (though a .106 ISO at Springfield is probably the equivalent to a .081 ISO in Peoria). But he didn’t hit a homer after July 24th, and it for a little looked Church might become an actual prospect, so this season feels disappointing.
Bryan Torres, OF – 26
Stats (AA): 528 PAs, .331/.418/.416, 13.1 BB%, 14.2 K%, .085 ISO, .389 BABIP, 140 wRC+
Fascinating emergence from nowhere. Fourth straight hitter whose main weakness (power) will make it hard to craft an MLB career unless it improves.
AAA
Gordon Graceffo, RHP – 24 (#6 prospect on VEB’s list)
Stats (AA): 27 G, 130 IP, 18.4 K%, 8.6 BB%, 40.2 GB%, .328 BABIP, 4.85 ERA/5.17 FIP/5.17 xFIP
I would say the 2024 season was a disappointment from Graceffo, probably not as much as one as the 2023 season was – he went from being a pretty big prospect to one more likely to end up in the bullpen. And this season seems like further evidence he will end up in the bullpen.
Sem Robberse, RHP – 22 (#10 on VEB’s list)
Stats: 16 G, 84.1 IP, 21.8 K%, 7.8 BB%, 44 GB%, .273 BABIP, 4.59 ERA/4.77 FIP/4.62 xFIP
I say it all the time, but important context: The average ERA in the IL was 4.83, so this line is not near as bad as it looks. It is admittedly nothing special, but a slightly above average pitching line in AAA for a 22-year-old is good. Unfortunately, the injury bug also hit him.
Ian Bedell, RHP – 24 (#14 prospect by VEB)
Stats (AA): 12 G, 64.2 IP, 29.5 K%, 7.1 BB%, 36 GB%, .265 BABIP, 4.73 ERA/4.59 FIP/3.46 xFIP
Stats (AAA): 9 GS, 43 IP, 16.4 K%, 12.7 BB%, 37.7 GB%, .215 BABIP, 5.02 ERA/7.03 FIP/6.69 xFIP
It’s interesting how differently we would view his season if he never got called up or got called up for a few starts. Because he was genuinely excellent in AA. Yes, yes I know the ERA and FIP are high, but that is a fantastic K/BB ratio. Then he hit a wall in AAA. Easy to lose sight of the bigger picture, but I think we can call this season a success for Bedell. Hopefully, he adjusts to AAA next season.
Adam Kloffenstein, RHP – 23 (#15 prospect by VEB)
Stats (AAA): 17 GS, 89.1 IP, 19.4 K%, 10.9 BB%, 49 GB%, .271 BABIP, 4.74 ERA/5.51 FIP/5.16 xFIP
We’ll call this an underwhelming season. That is a very high groundball rate though, a trait he has had most of his minor league career. And he’s young. Just walk a few less, strike out a bit more, and you have the makings of a future big league starter. Easier said than done.
Quinn Matthews, LHP – 23 (#11 prospect by Fangraphs)
Stats: 26 GS, 143.1 IP, 35.4 K%, 8.6 BB%, 46.3 GB%, .275 BABIP, 2.76 ERA/2.59 FIP/2.72 xFIP
These were his season stats, which I thought was more fun to do than list the four separate stops. There’s a reason he won Minor League Player of the Year.
Cesar Prieto, 2B – 25 (#15 prospect by Fangraphs)
Stats: 535 PAs, .279/.318/.445, 4.3 BB%, 11.8 K%, .166 ISO, .296 BABIP, 95 wRC+
Prieto is probably going to have to hit better than this given he’s not considered a good defender.
Ryan Loutos, RHP – 25 (#20 prospect by Fangraphs)
Stats: 47 G, 53 IP, 25.8 K%, 10 BB%, 45.9 GB%, .347 BABIP, 3.40 ERA/3.38 FIP/4.27 xFIP
He got to make his MLB debut and had a solid season in his third try at AAA. We’ll know how much the Cardinals believe in Loutos by if he manages to stay on the 40 throughout the winter.
Andre Granillo, RHP – 24 (#21 prospect by Fangraphs)
Stats (AA): 14 G, 18.1 IP, 31.9 K%, 13.9 BB%, 36.8 GB%, 1.47 ERA/3.25 FIP/3.73 xFIP
AAA: 34 G, 46.2 IP, 27.9 K%, 15.2 BB%, 31.3 GB%, 4.82 ERA/4.85 FIP/5.15 xFIP
He saw time in both AA and AAA last season too, and both of his 2024 stat lines are big improvements over how he pitched last year. So I’ll call this year a success. Should stop walking people so much though.
Connor Thomas, LHP – 26 (#29 prospect by Fangraphs)
Stats: 53 G, 90.1 IP, 20.6 K%, 6.3 BB%, 53.5 GB%, .331 BABIP, 2.89 ERA/3.87 FIP/4.13 xFIP
Huh, converting to the bullpen looks good on him. Seems like you could do worse with him at long relief next year.
Jacob Bosiokovic, RHP
Stats (AAA): 47 G, 55 IP, 26 K%, 14 BB%, 43.9 GB%, 5.56 ERA/5.11 FIP/4.73 xFIP
Probably not a Cardinal for long unless they re-sign him for the second time. Which might happen. I hope he can make his MLB debut someday.
Alex Cornwell, LHP
Stats (AA): 19 G (15 GS), 83.2 IP, 23.5 K%, 9.5 BB%, 57.5 GB%, 4.95 ERA/3.82 FIP/3.60 xFIP
AAA: 6 G, 15.1 IP, 18.5 K%, 7.7 BB%, 61.7 GB%, 4.70 ERA/4.68 FIP/4.15 xFIP
Again, moving to the bullpen looks good on him. Groundball machine who, in theory, has four lefties ahead of him in the bullpen. Good luck.
Matt Koperniak, OF – 26
Stats (AAA): 513 PAs, .309/.370/.512, 8.4 BB%, 18.7 K%, .203 ISO, .351 BABIP, 128 wRC+
Would certainly be cool if he can build off his success next season.
Packy Naughton, LHP – 27
Stats (AAA): 10.2 IP, 24.5 K%, 6.1 BB%, 46.7 GB%, 2.53 ERA/2.16 FIP/3.34 xFIP
I think the Cardinals should strongly considered adding him to the 40 man, so they can retain his services. He still has an option.
Nolan Gorman, 2B – 24
Stats: 98 PAs, .205/.276/.489, 9.2 BB%, 23.5 K%, .284 ISO, .186 BABIP, 89 wRC+
All things considered, managing an 89 wRC+ with a .186 BABIP is kind of impressive. And he did manage to cut down significantly on his strikeouts. I’m curious on his future.
I think that about covers it. Two relievers, whose full stats I don’t want to post because I want to go to bed, are Benito Garcia (19.5 K%, 4.5 BB%, 3.86 FIP in AA) and Victor Santos (18 K%, 9.9 BB%, 4.93 FIP). Garcia was a minor league Rule 5 pick and looks like a good one and Santos was the other part of the Tyler O’Neill trade.