JUPITER, Fla. – At long last, spring training is underway for the St. Louis Cardinals, a fresh reminder that a new baseball season is just around the corner.
Pitchers and catchers officially reported to the St. Louis Cardinals spring camp Tuesday in Jupiter, Florida. All position players are expected to report by Monday.
It’s a rather unusual time in St. Louis Cardinals history. The team is coming off back-to-back years without postseason baseball, and many veterans have departed as the team embraces the mindset of a cost-cutting, roster-reshaping, youth-driven reset.
As spring camp begins, it’s a good time to look ahead at what 2025 might have in store for the St. Louis Cardinals. Here are five bold predictions for the new season:
1) Nolan Arenado will spend at least half of this season with the Cardinals
Originally, this bold prediction was going to be that Arenado would be the Cardinals’ Opening Day third baseman, but given recent developments, that’s not so bold anymore. It’s likely expected now.
While lead executive John Mozeliak acknowledged last month that the Cardinals have explored trade proposals involving Arenado, it doesn’t appear a trade has ever come close to materializing, aside from a deal Arenado reportedly blocked to Houston in November. Arenado’s no-trade clause and limited list of preferred destinations if traded further complicate the matter.
One team long thought to be a suitor, the Boston Red Sox, pivoted to signing longtime Astros third baseman Alex Bregman on Wednesday, narrowing Arenado’s immediate market. Mozeliak has addressed media members twice this week over Arenado, making remarks such as “Our mindset is Nolan Arenado is our third baseman” and that the Cardinals have “exhausted” options within his preferred trade destinations.
For what it’s worth, early-offseason reports indicated that Arenado did not personally request a trade out of St. Louis this winter, suggesting he’s content in St. Louis until he feels there is a more desirable opportunity elsewhere.
Given all of this, Arenado is expected to report to Florida by Monday, but a trade could become more feasible midseason, depending on the Cardinals’ performance and the developing needs of contending teams. It could be beneficial for all parties involved to evaluate Arenado’s production and how the Cardinals adapt with him still in the lineup. Perhaps the trade speculation could even provide him with fresh motivation heading into the season.
Ultimately, considering all current dynamics, an Arenado deal around the trade deadline seems more logical than a preseason or early-season move largely intended to slash payroll.
2) Oli Marmol will manage the Cardinals the entire season
Oli Marmol is preparing for his fourth season as Cardinals manager, and his tenure so far has been quite a mixed bag. A division title and 93-win team in 2022, a steep drop to under .500 and 71 wins in 2023, and a middle-of-the-pack season for much of 2024, though one where he earned a two-year extension.
Marmol’s new contract officially begins with the 2025 campaign, a season that will also mark a front-office transition. John Mozeliak intends to step down as President of Baseball Operations and hand the title to Chaim Bloom at the season’s end. Because of that, it wouldn’t make much sense for the Cardinals to make another big leadership change between now and this planned change of guard in the front office unless the team completely unravels.
Additionally, many key players, including Willson Contreras and Masyn Winn, spoke highly of their relationships with Marmol at Winter Warm-Up, emphasizing the importance clubhouse stability even if the team struggles to play above expectations. Marmol’s future with the Cardinals after the 2025 season? This year should be quite pivotal in shaping that.
3) The Cardinals will have multiple 30-home run hitters
Saying goodbye to veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, along with ongoing efforts to trade Nolan Arenado, reaffirms the Cardinals’ commitment to invest in younger talent at the MLB level. The last two seasons, St. Louis hasn’t had a 30-home run hitter. But with a greater emphasis on player development and more runway for younger hitters, that could change in 2025.
The best 30-home run candidates are likely Alec Burleson, Nolan Gorman, and Jordan Walker. All three have been working closely with new Cardinals hitting coach Brant Brown this offseason. Walker, in particular, has focused on refining his stance and hand placement to create a more balanced approach at the plate.
Gorman is just two seasons removed from a 27-homer campaign, showing flashes of elite power during hot streaks. Burleson, who came close to the benchmark .500 slugging percentage in college and the minors, has continued to improve with increased opportunities. And even Willson Contreras, who was on pace for a 30-homer season last year amid injury setbacks, could see a boost in offensive production with his planned move to first base.
Don’t expect the power production of Mark McGwire or Albert Pujols, but the young core of hitters could certainly take a step forward.
4) Young arms will push three veterans out of Cardinals’ rotation
If healthy and reasonably effective, the St. Louis Cardinals likely have their 2025 Opening Day rotation already set. A traditional five-man setup projects as Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde, Steven Matz, and Andre Pallante.
Mikolas, Matz, and Fedde are all free agents at the season’s end, and all three fit the bill as placeholders as the Cardinals evaluate their younger arms. Fedde, on a team-friendly contract, could draw the most midseason trade interest if he regains his form from last year’s White Sox run. Perhaps Mikolas and Matz could too, but the last two seasons have had their fair share of inconsistencies for both, and if their outings aren’t helping the Cardinals through the dog days of summer, that could be the final straw for St. Louis to turn to younger pitchers down the stretch.
Michael McGreevy, after a strong first impression late last year, is expected to stretch out as a starter in the early going of spring training. Tink Hence, after four minor league seasons and improved command, is a strong candidate for a big-league debut this year. Quinn Mathews, the Cardinals’ reigning Minor League Pitcher of the Year, has worked through the ranks quite rapidly, reaching Triple-A in his first pro season with strong swing-and-miss stuff.
If the Cardinals are serious about a youth movement, McGreevy, Hence, and Mathews should all see MLB starts (perhaps even regularly) by the season’s end, likely at the expense of Fedde, Mikolas, and Matz. Injuries could accelerate their paths to the rotation as well.
5) Cardinals will finish above .500 again
A St. Louis Cardinals team plagued by struggles with runners in scoring position and head-to-head against division rivals last year still managed to win 83 games, a 12-win improvement from 2023 that ranked among MLB’s best turnarounds. Aside from Goldschmidt’s departure and a few bullpen changes, the 2025 roster on paper looks largely unchanged from 2024.
If the Cardinals can make even marginal improvements in clutch-hitting situations (a key focus with hiring Brant Brown as the new hitting coach) and hold steady in the NL Central division (one that lacked in big offseason moves), provided that pitching holds steady, they should at least be in the hunt for a .500 record.
While that alone won’t satisfy a fanbase that holds the team to a standard of deep postseason runs, finishing above .500 would signal that the “reset” process is taking shape, and ideally prevent the need for a complete overhaul or collapse like last year’s record-setting 121-loss Chicago White Sox.
PECOTA, one of baseball’s well-known projection models, predicts a 78-win season for the year’s Cardinals. Last year, PECOTA predicted 76 wins, and the Cardinals outperformed that by seven games. If they could replicate that this year, the Cardinals would have 85 wins, which would most likely enough to either barely secure a postseason spot or keep them in contention until the final few series of the season.
A .500 or near-.500 record alone is hardly a benchmark for success and not guaranteed, but if the Cardinals are serious about committing to a young core, it could pave the foundation of sustained competitiveness for years to come.