Five prospects with potential to be in Cards top 20

I have identified five guys who I think stand a pretty good chance at landing on a future list

There’s not much to be gleaned from a couple weeks of minor league play, but that is not going to stop me from doing such a thing. In the early goings, we’ve had some promising play, some disappointing play, some that is in between. For the sake of mental health, it’s probably best to ignore all results so far. A good or bad week will instantly change the complexion of a player’s season, and that will remain true for probably another month.

With all the necessary disclaimers out of the way, I have noticed a few players who aren’t on anybody’s radar but for the most diehard of prospect followers and I think they deserve to be on the radar now. This is me attempting to put them on your radar. There is something about these players start to the 2025 season that makes me think we will soon be choosing to put them on a top 20 list. Most of this list is a few years away from the majors, so this is not me saying they will be on next year’s list. Just on the list at some point. Based on the premise of this article, I am ignoring anyone who landed on the top 20.

Braden Davis, 22 – LHP

5th round pick, 2024 draft

2025 Stats (Low A): 2 GS, 8 IP, 40 K%, 20 BB%, 50 GB%, .200 BABIP, 2.25 ERA/6.66 FIP/3.82 xFIP

He allowed two home runs in his first start, hence the weirdly high FIP. He has had a bit of a control problem. This might be due to his increased velocity. Oh that’s right. He’s throwing harder than he did in college. Davis averaged 91.6 mph when he was at Oklahoma, and he’s averaging closer to 93 in the early goings. He’s also missing so many bats. When they do make contact, it’s usually on the ground. He’s allowed three flyballs and two of them have went for homers. Go figure.

Ixan Henderson, 23 – LHP

8th round pick, 2023

Stats (AA): 1 GS, 5 IP, 38.1 K%, 14.3 BB%, 60 GB%, .300 BABIP, 0.00 ERA/2.58 FIP/3.14 xFIP

One of the best signs that you should pay attention to a prospect: the Cardinals are aggressive with promoting him. And boy are they aggressive with Henderson. Henderson pitched in 16 games – made 11 starts – in Low A last season. He was quite good in them with a 2.10 ERA. He finished the year with 6 starts at the High A level. He was not particularly impressive there with a 4.57 FIP and 4.80 xFIP. What did the Cardinals do? They put him in AA to start the 2025 season. So far, so good! Eight strikeouts in his debut at AA.

Josh Kross, 22 – C/1B

6th round pick, 2024 draft

Stats (Low A): 31 PAs, .333/.387/.852, 3.2 BB%, 9.7 K%, .273 ISO, .316 BABIP, 202 wRC+*

Why is a 22-year-old repeating Low A who might not stick at catcher on this list of people I expect to make a top 20? Well I suspect he’ll be in High A fairly soon unless they want to work on his defense at catcher and that’s easier in Low A. Which is entirely possible. But he’s exceeded his extra base hit total from last season already in 63 less plate appearances. It sure seems like he’s too good for Low A and to be fair, he’s also old for Low A. But what more can you ask a 22-year-old in Low A to do?

Jeremy Rivas, 22 – SS

Signed out of Venezuela, 2019

Stats (AA): 38 PAs, .296/.500/.556, 26.3 BB%, 21.1 K%, .260 ISO, 200 wRC+*

So here’s the thing about Rivas. He is an all-defense prospect. Until last year, he didn’t hit a lick and yet he kept getting promoted. Even last year, he only had a .048 ISO over the entire season when he finally managed close to a 100 wRC+. Why did they promote this guy so quickly? Well, a weird quirk of when he signed is that he’s actually eligible for minor league free agency at the conclusion of this season, despite it only being his fifth minor league season of play. Also, they believe in his defense.

Which brings us to now. Rivas hit 12 total extra-base hits all of last season. He already has a double and two homers. Normally, I would not take notice of this fact. Except for the fact that he’s only 22-years-old and power is his only weakness. Strikeouts haven’t been an issue. I suppose he is striking out too much for someone with no power but it’s hard to say strikeouts is a problem when he struck out 18.5% of the time last year. Walking certainly isn’t a problem. Even with being no threat at all to hit more than a single, he walked 10% of the time last year. Rivas with even a little bit of power is a prospect.

Leonel Sequera, 19 – RHP

Signed out of Venezuela, 2022

Stats (Low A): 2 GS, 7.2 IP, 19.4 K%, 6.5 BB%, 45 GB%, .190 BABIP, 1.17 ERA/4.16 FIP/4.73 xFIP

Unlike everybody else, I don’t think Sequera is going to wow you with his stats. Not a lot of strikeouts, not an especially large amount of groundballs either. There are two relevant factors to consider though. The first is his age. If you glossed over it, he’s 19-years-old and pitching in Low A. He actually made 7 respectable appearances last year. He also didn’t strike people out, but again 18-year-old in Low A holding his own. The second is that his velocity is ramping up. He reached a career high 96 mph in his most recent start. He still has growing to do, and he may throw even faster than that when the dust settles. He’s a guy who could go on the list next year, or 2-3 years from now, that’s how young he is. I mean he’ll be 21 in AA if he just goes a level at a time.

*These players have a different wRC+ than I present. Yesterday’s games are not included in that number. Kross hit a homer, but didn’t get on base the other three times. I suspect it will be quite similar. Rivas went 0-3 but did walk 3 times. It will probably be lower, but not a ton.

AAA depth

Just to pad out the length of this article and you’re probably curious, but the Cardinals have certain depth on the position player side, and you’re probably wondering how they’re faring. Here’s an update on any candidate to get promoted to the MLB bench:

Jose Barrero

Stats: 42 PAs, .244/.340/.366, 12.8 BB%, 36.2 K%, .122 ISO, .391 BABIP, > 100 wRC+

Those strikeout numbers will not play in the MLB. Going to need that to lower quite a bit.

Jose Fermin

Stats: 49 PAs, .171/.306/.244, 16.3 BB%, 8.2 K%, .073 ISO, .167 BABIP, 63 wRC+

Fermin did homer yesterday and has an impeccable approach, at least at AAA, but the hits aren’t falling yet and that was his first extra base hit of the year.

Michael Helman

Stats: 45 PAs, .190/.244/.238, 6.7 BB%, 24.4 K%, .048 ISO, .258 BABIP, 38 wRC+

Not a whole lot positive in this line. None at all, some might say.

Matt Koperniak

Stats: 49 PAs, .152/.204/.174, 2 BB%, 12.2 K%, .022 ISO, .175 BABIP, 8 wRC+

Wow. Okay. Well, he isn’t striking out. That’s about all there is to say about that.

Ryan Vilade

Stats: 45 PAs, .286/.333/.405, 6.7 BB%, 26.7 K%, .119 ISO, .400 BABIP, 105 wRC+

Congratulations, Ryan. You are the biggest loser. A super BABIP-fueled, slightly above average line is the best this group has to offer. I don’t think Luken Baker is in danger of losing his job to any of these guys.