A final recap. Til next spring from Jupiter.
Top-line Results
McGreevy pitches a gem, 8 IP, 1 R. Cardinals tally 6 runs to close out the 2024 campaign at 83-79.
Pre-Game Notes
- Noticing over last 15 games that Walker’s OPS is .842. I could live with that.
- Noon game today in SanFran. This is one of my favorite places to watch a game. Saw Mark Mulder shut these guys down in a playoff game here long ago (2005?). Didn’t Tommy Edman hit his first career HR here a few years back? Left-handed, even? I bet not a lot of people can say they’ve seen, in person, Edman hit a HR left-handed.
Line-up (and roster) manipulations
- What we now know is common with seasons that end before playoff time, lots of players with owies are on the IL. No one new today, though. No point.
- In true sabermetric form, hot-handedness has landed Noot in the clean-up spot.
- Arenado’ season finished Friday it turns out. Fermin at third. I’m hoping he doesn’t get hurt over there. Goldy at DH. Otherwise, it is the young guys. Even the wizened vet Winn gets the day off, with Sags at SS. Not the strongest defensive alignment.
- Carpenter gets the start at first in what seems likely to be the last game of his career. Goldy at DH.
- McGreevy toes the mound for the Cardinals today, as he continues to audition for a role on the 2025 roster. This audition is sure to continue into next spring.
The Game
Who cares? I jest…as long as they play the game straight up, I will recap it, same as always. I learned long ago that baseball is a labor of love. That I would prefer to listen to/watch and recap a meaningless game today than endure the emptiness of a silenced radio tomorrow.
T1 – Donovan walks. Burly F8. Goldy backwards K. Noot K.
B1 – 4-3. 4-3. 1-3. That was quick.
T2 – Carp singles. Walker backwards K. Saggese K. Pages backwards K. Looking like the first day of spring, when the pitchers are ahead of the hitters.
B2 – 1-3. Single. K. 4-3. McGreevy thinkin’ this MLB stuff is easy.
T3 – Fermin K. Donovan HR! Burly backwards K. Goldy K. Cards now up 1-0. 8 K’s IN 9 outs for the Birds.
B3 – Siani in. Carpenter out. Tip of the hat, Matt! 1-3 (again). K. 4-3 (again).
T4 – Noot out 4-3. Siani K. Walker K. 10 K’s.
B4 – F9. 3-1, reversing prior trends. K. Beginning to wonder if equipment managers packed up the bats at the conclusion of yesterday’s game.
T5 – Saggese walks. Pages walks. Fermin flails in a failed bunt attempt. Donovan takes two FB down the middle. Huh? Donovan works the count anyway and gets and RBI single. Burly with an RBI single. Birdsong out. He K’ed a lot of guys, but whatever contact he gave up was hit HARD and did damage. Baker PH for Goldy. Tip of the hat, Paul! Rogers in. Baker lines out. Nootbar backwards K. Cards now up 3-0.
B5 – 5-3. K. L6. One of the few hard-hit balls off McGreevy today. He has a paltry 4 K’s (in comparison to Birdsong), but considerably better results and a very manageable pitch count (57). I wonder when the “pitchability” metric starts getting pinned on him.
T6 – Rodriguez in for Rogers. Siani walks. Walker singles. Saggese pops out. Pages K. Fermin RBI single. Donovan walks. Burleson 2-RBI single. Then caught stealing. Going out in style? Cards now up 6-0.
B6 – Single. Single. Both ground balls. Line out F7. L5. Starting to see harder contact now. L8. Ends the uprising. His velo seems to be holding well.
T7 – Mcdonald in for Rodriguez. Siani out 3u. Nootbar out 3-1. Baker out 5-3.
B7 – Double. F8. E-6. Tough day for Sags at SS. RBI single. GIDP the hard way 3-6-1.
T8 – Walker out 6-3. Sags F9. Pages K.
B8 – K. 1-3 on a nice play. K. McGreevy finishes strong. 8 IP, 1 ER.
T9 – Fermin 4-3. Donovan out 3u. Burly walks (and chirps to Oli about it). Baker 6-3. Cards still up 6-1.
B9 – Matz in for McGreevy. Single. Single. GIDP. L5. Inning over. Game over. Season over.
Post-Game Notes (and random musings)
- I sense change is afoot. Should be an interesting off-season. I am curious how sweeping the changes will be.
- After watching a couple of games, I’d say McGreevy seems to understand his pitch selection and what works. He also seems reasonably composed for a young guy.
- Burleson ends up with team lead at 78 RBI. Horton says the last time the team leader was that low was 1986. Although sabermetrically frowned on to measure via RBI, yet another sign of the combined result of low OBP (no runners on) and low OPS (no power) that defines this Cardinal lineup.
- So, Goldy can’t re-sign with the Cardinals before he becomes a FA, since the CBA won’t allow any more than a 25% decrease in contract value, right? I can’t see the Cardinals re-signing him for that much. The more I look at the data, the more I’ve come to believe they won’t resign him unless the discount is steep (say, $8m for 1 year). His recent surge not-withstanding, his plummeting walk rate and rising K rate (4 years running) are very bad signs. These never improve in age 38 seasons. ISO follows the same track. ISO is one of the areas the Cardinals need to improve, and resigning Goldy will be working away from that goal. I fear we have seen the last of him. Good player, good guy.
- Analysis of 2024 and planning for 2025 has begun in earnest. Will start popping out articles later this week or next, once a schedule is arrived at. Lots of ideas to write about. Doing the research now. Boning up on my R programming skills and sifting through mounds of data. I like to support my analysis with actual data.
- One of my programming challenges right now is I am trying to extract PA outcomes (by player and by team – the Cardinals, of course!) in each of the on-base situations a batter might face (ie. None on, none out all the way to bases loaded, 2 out). Then I want to analyze what pitchers threw in each of those situations. Not having great success finding a good data source for this yet.
- Some sample data leads me to want to explore a larger sample size: Did pitchers threw more FB strikes to Cardinal hitters with low leverage situations (no one on, 1 on/2 out) knowing that they wouldn’t get punished for that middle-middle FB? And did pitchers move to more modern pitching approaches in higher leverage situations, resulting in low OPS and higher K rates with RISP? Also, I want to quantify the BB rates that occurred in front of the lowest OPS hitter in RISP situations? Ie. did walk rates increase because pitchers walked a guy (even with RISP) just so they could pitch to a Siani or other low OPS/high K hitter?