Also a chance to vote on the #13 prospect.
This has turned into a battle between me and AI. Early on Monday, for some inexplicable reason, a player was getting an absurd amount of votes. I re-made a poll and the same thing happened, so I was forced to delete him from the voting. He wasn’t a real contender to win the vote, so no issues, but this is the third straight vote a random player has gotten an absolutely dominant amount of votes out of nowhere. So… this is just the new thing I have to look for unfortunately. Luckily, it has not been subtle about what player is getting the boost. I hope either it stops or that it continues to be that easy to notice.
Anyway, Gordon Graceffo barely lost the #11 prospect vote – in fact he lost by literally a vote – so it is not a surprise that he won the vote for the #12 prospect pretty comfortably. Though we are at a place where a greater variety of players are getting votes, so it’s truly anybody’s game. Here is the list so far.
- JJ Wetherholt, SS
- Quinn Mathews, LHP
- Tink Hence, RHP
- Thomas Saggese, 2B/3B
- Jimmy Crooks III, C
- Michael McGreevy, RHP
- Chase Davis, OF
- Leonardo Bernal, C
- Cooper Hjerpe, LHP
- Tekoah Roby, RHP
- Chen-Wei Lin, RHP
- Gordon Graceffo, RHP
Comparable Player Corner
Today, we have two left-handed starting pitching prospects entering 2025 at the age of 23. However, one of them was drafted in 2023, the other in 2022. One of them played in High A and is going to play next season at AA. The other did also see High A, but will probably begin this upcoming season at High A.
Ixan Henderson, was drafted in the 8th round of the 2023 draft. He actually started last season in the bullpen, but his last 16 appearances were all starts. He had a 26.3 K%, 2.10 ERA, and 3.57 xFIP in Low A. He also made six starts in High A, striking out 19.5% of batters with a 2.90 ERA and 4.80 xFIP.
Brycen Mautz was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2022 draft. All 24 of his appearances were starts and at the High A level. He struck out 23.8% of batters with a 5.18 ERA and 4.01 xFIP. He also did display a revamped changeup at the AFL.
New addition
I actually explained my reasoning for today’s addition in the last post. When Gordon Graceffo was selected in the comparable player poll over Ian Bedell and Max Rajcic, both Rajcic and Bedell were very close in voting. So I knew when Graceffo was off the board, both Bedell and Rajcic needed to be in the voting at the same time. Graceffo is off the board, Rajcic is already in the voting, so it’s time for Bedell to be added.
Ian Bedell, RHP – 25
Stats (AA): 12 G, 64.2 IP, 29.5 K%, 7.1 BB%, 36 GB%, .265 BABIP, 4.73 ERA/4.59 FIP/3.46 xFIP
AAA: 9 G, 43 IP, 16.4 K%, 12.7 BB%, 37.7 GB%, .215 BABIP, 5.02 ERA/7.03 FIP/6.68 xFIP
BP: “The stuff is not overpowering but the arsenal is deep, allowing Bedell to turn over a lineup and stick as a starter.” (From June)
Bedell’s season is a clear case of good news/bad news. The good news is that he actually pitched quite well in AA – the run environment is crazy there, don’t scoff at the 29.5% K rate – and he continued to ramp up his innings if he will indeed manage to start at the MLB level. The bad news is he was quite bad at AAA. No getting around that.
Won-Bin Cho, OF – 21
LYR: #11
Stats (High A): 107 G, 428 PAs, .227/.307/.305, 8.4 BB%, 31.3 K%, .078 ISO, .343 BABIP, 81 wRC+, 74 DRC+
BP: “Cho profiles favorably in the field, a solid corner outfield defender thanks to above-average speed and adequate reads, but is likely stretched in center field.”
It could be worse for Bedell though. Because Cho was pretty much all bad news. But Bedell can’t afford very much bad news, whereas Cho can afford quite a bit of bad news. That’s the virtue of being 21-years-old. He does have time. His attributes as a prospect were not reflected in his 2024 stats, that’s for sure.
Travis Honeyman, OF – 23
LYR: #20
Stats (Low A): 14 G, 60 PAs, .321/.367/.446, 5 BB%, 13 K%, .125 ISO, .375 BABIP, 133 wRC+
BP: Honeyman has a punchy little line-drive oriented swing, a tight barrel loop that generates explosive impact out in front of the plate. He’s geared to turn and burn, sending most of his contact to the pull side.
Sticking with the theme of today’s post – I might have to accidentally stumble onto a new theme in order to figure out what the hell to say about a prospect 10 different times. But Honeyman was also good news/bad news. In his case though, the bad news was injuries and the good news was both being healthy at all and performing when healthy.
Matt Koperniak, OF – 27
LYR: Unranked
Stats (AAA): 513 PAs, .309/.370/.512, 8.4 BB%, 18.7 K%, .203 ISO, .351 BABIP, 128 wRC+, 116 DRC+
BP: I’m going to be real. I don’t think BP has written a single word about him. And I mean ever.
I hope we have different variations of good news and bad news with every prospect because we have a fourth different version of that. Koperniak, as it pertains to his 2024 anyway, is all good news. His “bad” news has nothing to do with his actual performance, it has to do with his age. He’s pretty old for a prospect. Not going to see many 27-year-olds on any prospect list really, not just Cardinals.
Yairo Padilla, SS – 18
LYR: Unranked
Stats (DSL): 162 PAs, .287/.391/.404, 10.5 BB%, 17.9 K%, .118 ISO, .355 BABIP, 121 wRC+
BP: “Padilla is an eye scouting marvel: a tall, skinny, classically projectable 17-year-old who takes a smooth swing from both sides of the plate. If you believe in the old ways of scouting even a little bit, you’re liable to see a future star here.”
Framed a certain way, you’d think Padilla and Koperniak were the same exact prospect. How could that be true? Well, like Koperniak, Padilla’s 2024 season is only good news and to the extent that there is bad news, it’s Padilla’s age. But in Padilla’s case, he’s just so incredibly young and far away from the big leagues, so it’s a different type of risk than Koperniak.
Max Rajcic, RHP – 23
LYR: #12
Stats (AA): 25 G, 131 IP, 23.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 39.2 GB%, .314 BABIP, 4.33 ERA/4.41 FIP/4.03 xFIP/4.59 DRA
BP: “He has a very pretty looking but humpy curveball, though his changeup has actually taken a step forward to claim the title of his best offspeed offering (to go along with various flavors of slider).”
Bucking the trend a little bit, Rajcic had a… perfectly acceptable 2024. It wasn’t especially good or bad. He stayed on track. To the extent that he’s fallen as a prospect, I imagine people either wanted his stuff to improve to a significant degree or for his performance to quell any stuff concerns, neither of which necessarily happened.
Sem Robberse, RHP – 23
LYR: #10
Stats (AAA): 16 G (14 GS), 84.1 IP, 21.8 K%, 7.8 BB%, 44 GB%, .273 BABIP, 4.59 ERA/4.77 FIP/4.61 xFIP/5.25 DRA
BP: Robberse at least has some whiffier offerings in his sweeper and hard changeup—which is only four mph off his fastball—and his cutterish slider has utility too, so of this group he might have the most relief conversion potential.
Hey, a perfect player for today’s theme! Robberse is the epitome of good news/bad news. He had a very, very good start to his season, but then he got hit around a bit and then his season ended prematurely. He’s still pretty young though, having played last season in AAA at the age of 22.
Rainiel Rodriguez, C – 18
LYR: Not in organization
Stats (DSL): 41 G, 184 PAs, .345/.462/.683, 16.3 BB%, 13.6 K%, .338 ISO, .345 BABIP, 186 wRC+
BP: “He hits the ball pretty hard for his age, makes enough contact, controls the zone well, and might stick behind the dish.”
Rodriguez probably fit what I said about Padilla better than Padilla did. Because, while yes, Padilla had a positive season in the DSL, he did have concerns with hitting the ball hard and his performance was above average, not incredible. On the other hand, Rodriguez had an incredible season with the bat. Scouts aren’t as crazy about Rodriguez as Padilla is the difference between the two.
Darlin Saladin, RHP – 22
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Low A): 11 G, 60 IP, 26.8 K%, 7.4 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .287 BABIP, 1.95 ERA/2.61 FIP/3.29 xFIP/3.16 DRA
High A: 12 G, 63 IP, 27.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 42.8 GB%, 42.8 GB%, .344 BABIP, 3.43 ERA/2.73 FIP/3.29 xFIP/4.00 DRA
BP: “Saladin is another low-VAA fastball oddity king; you can really see the Cardinals trending hard in this direction over the past few years. After three years mostly bopping around the complex, he showed up in A-ball this year and torched both levels working primarily off a low-to-mid-90s heater from a flat angle.”
We have reached a player who had an only good news 2024 season who does not have any age-related concerns. He does have, I suppose, stuff-related concerns. Though it’s not clear if he actually has stuff-related concerns or if scouts just missed on him and it’s taken a little bit to adjust that opinion. He’s also 5’11, which scares scouts.
Zack Showalter, RHP – 21
LYR: #21 (He was close to winning 20th vote)
Stats (Low A): 24 G, 34.1. IP, 38.6 K%, 11.8 BB%, 43.9 GB%, .373 BABIP, 2.62 ERA/2.48 FIP/3.02 xFIP
BP: “His low-90s, sub-4 VAA fastball out of an extremely funky delivery was absurdly dominant against Low-A hitters, and he also weaponized a sweeper against same-side batters for a very tough look.”
He’s pretty much the same as Honeyman, but probably with the news being more tilted towards good. He managed to play more than Honeyman, and some of his lack of innings was strategic, rather than because he literally couldn’t play.