How can the Cardinals fix the bullpen?

The bullpen’s problems are entirely because of middle relief

Since last Friday, the Cardinals have played in close games in just about every game. And Ryan Helsley pitched in the only one that didn’t end up being a close game. Though it was a close game until the top of the 9th. Having an elite closer really doesn’t mean much if he never actually gets to pitch with a close lead in the 9th inning. It doesn’t have to be that way.

Except it kind of does.

The development of an elite reliever in the modern age follows a similar pattern no matter who they pitch for. They have their breakout season, and eventually transition into the closer role. In that initial breakout season, they are not even necessarily the named closer, but being the most reliable reliever, they get the most save chances. At some point after that breakout season, they have enough pull to put more restrictions on when they pitch. Pitchers are creatures of habit and if you know for a fact that you are not pitching until the 9th inning (or later) and only if it’s a close game, it’s a lot easier than always being on high alert.

This is a natural human thing. No matter how good the reliever is, I’m sure every reliever would love to know that they will pitch in an exact inning before the game starts. It’s just that the majority of relievers understand that they are replaceable so they’ll do whatever is needed so they can keep collecting an MLB paycheck. Elite relievers know they are not replaceable. They know that throwing just one inning probably increases their chances to stay healthy. That only pitching in save situations will increase their earning potential.

So if you’re wondering at why Helsley never seems to come into the 8th, I kind of think this is a Helsley thing more than a Marmol thing. We kind of saw this play out with Josh Hader and the Brewers, though that was a little more public. I think it’s something they’ve probably worked out well before this year and it worked very well last year, so there wasn’t really a thought to change it up.

So weirdly, we seem to have two extremes of the consequences of having an elite, one-inning closer in back-to-back seasons. Because there’s a lot made of the fact that the Cardinals’ bullpen was a strength last season, but the thing is that nobody was actually elite except Ryan Helsley. JoJo Romero and Andrew Kittredge had their stretches where they seemed elite, but at the end of the year, their underlying stats were more reflective of a middle reliever than an elite one.

Helsley blew four saves all last year – two of them were, ironically enough – multi-inning appearances in extra innings where he gave up one unearned run. So what you had was an elite closer elevating the rest of the bullpen. The Cardinals had good enough relievers to get to him. But nobody was actually elite. The bullpen outkicked its coverage because of the closer.

Then you have this season, where we find out how useful an elite reliever is if he never actually gets to pitch in a close game. Cause you do need to pitch 8 innings to get to that guy. And yes I know there are legitimate quibbles that he’s not being used in tie games before getting to extras, but history tells us that someone would have to pitch after Helsley anyway (the offense has been good, but it seems like as soon as its tied and late in the game, they just die), and those guys have usually given up runs at that point.

And actually, the Cardinals to date have a similar bullpen structure to last year. They have effectively replaced Romero and Kittredge with Kyle Leahy and Phil Maton. And as I said Romero and Kittredge had their dominant stretches, but Leahy and Maton have actually been better than those guys. So far anyway, it’s a long season. The difference is that the middle relief last year had effective performances from Ryan Fernandez, John King, and Chris Roycroft. And somehow all of them, along with Romero, have been worse than a random reliever from AAA. That is inconceivable.

How do we fix this? I’ll say I don’t think putting Matt Svanson in instead of Ryan Fernandez gives the Cardinals the win. I think Svanson is benefiting greatly from backup QB syndrome right now. He had a 20.8 K% in AA as a 25-year-old and struck out 17.4% of batters in AAA in his limited time there. It’s hard for me to imagine that guy getting out of 2nd and 3rd, one out without allowing a run. I get it. He couldn’t have been worse than Fernandez. My broader point is: there were no good options.

Let’s look at the middle relief and see if it’s solvable at all. We’ll go through the MLB players and minor league players.

Nick Anderson

AAA Stats: 6 G, 9 IP, 22.5 K%, 7.5 BB%, 28.6 GB%, 4.00 ERA/3.88 FIP/4.56 xFIP

I don’t know what the details of Anderson’s contract are – typically a veteran such as himself can opt out after 30 days – but these stats are usually not going to get a non-40 man reliever promoted. He’s not striking out a lot of batters and almost everything is in the air. It sort of depends on if he ever can or intends to opt out. From his perspective, this is probably about as good of an opportunity as he’ll ever get to the MLB – he just needs to pitch better.

Conclusion: There are better options for now. I’d like to try him at some point, but I’d like to see his stats get better. Also, he’s not the best performing reliever who isn’t on the 40 man. And the other guy has more than just this year in terms of years of control.

Ryan Fernandez

MLB Stats: 11 G, 8.2 IP, 15.6 K%, 11.1 BB%, 42.4 GB%, 11.42 ERA/6.14 FIP/5.48 xFIP

To be honest, here’s what confuses me about the narrative that Ryan Fernandez has to work on his stuff at the MLB level: the Cardinals as an organization will benefit from sending him down. They will get an extra year of control if he’s down long enough. Most baseball organizations would love an excuse to get an extra year of control. And the Cardinals have the easiest excuse of all time.

Conclusion: Send him down ASAP. Seems to have worked for Roycroft (see below)

Gordon Graceffo

AAA Stats: 3 GS, 11.1 IP, 29.4 K%, 7.8 BB%, 35.5 GB%, 7.94 ERA/6.44 FIP/3.11 xFIP

I don’t think Graceffo is a real option because I think the Cardinals haven’t given up on him as a starting pitcher. He was not on my top 20 prospects, because I consider him a future reliever. The bigger issue is that the AAA starting depth is kind of limited at this point. Michael McGreevy is the next man up. Graceffo is the best of the healthy options by far after that. So until Sem Robberse comes back or Quinn Mathews is healthy and pitching well, I don’t really think there’s a chance he’s converted to reliever.

Conclusion: Unfortunately, injuries to what I consider better prospects prevent a move to to the bullpen for now.

Andre Granillo

AAA Stats: 5 G, 8.1 IP, 43.8 K%, 6.3 BB%, 25 GB%, 1.08 ERA/0.80 FIP/1.75 xFIP

If you were to go by 2025 stats, yes Granillo is the answer to our problems. Those are unbelievably great stats. Whenever they make contact, it is in the air, but that’s a small quibble when you are striking out over 40% of batters. I just… have a slight issue with the sample size here. He wasn’t good last season. He threw 46.2 IP in AAA and walked 14.9% of batters. His minor league history is walking a ton of batters. What do I think he’d do if he was promoted? Well, I think he’d walk a ton of batters to be honest. I think I would just like more than 5 games on his resume for promotion.

Conclusion: I’m exhausting other options before adding him to the 40 man. But if he keeps this up, I’m promoting him pretty soon.

John King

MLB Stats: 9 G, 7 IP, 11.4 K%, 11.4 BB%, 55.6 GB%, 6.43 ERA/5.45 FIP/4.84 xFIP

This is going to be a hot take, but for now, I don’t mind King’s presence on the roster. Marmol isn’t using him like he’s a high leverage reliever (like he is for Fernandez). King has pitched when the Cardinals are losing in the vast majority of his games. He hasn’t been good. But for a low leverage reliever who has been better than you’d think in his career, I’d give him more than 7 innings I think. You can use King as a punching bag in a way that you kind of don’t want to for somebody like Svanson.

Conclusion: Wait and see, though with an option, I will probably be looking to send him down without improved results by May.

Ryan Loutos

AAA Stats: 7 G, 7 IP, 16.7 K%, 6.7 BB%, 45.5 GB%, 3.86 ERA/4.72 FIP/5.14 xFIP

The Cardinals have more information than me, but that is a significantly lower strikeout rate than he had last season. So I would love to know if something’s different. But I’m going to ignore him except in cases of desperately needing a reliever until that K rate is better.

Conclusion: Just not enough strikeouts

Roddery Muñoz

AAA Stats: 5 G, 7 IP, 31.3 K%, 15.6 BB%, 37.5 GB%, 2.57 ERA/5.01 FIP/4.06 xFIP

He also has three MLB appearances, two good ones and one very bad one that make his stats look terrible. I suspect even if Muñoz works out as a reliever at the big league level, he’ll be a frustrating one. When he was last a full-time reliever in the Braves system in 2023, he walked 15.4% of batters. Pretty close to his current walk rate in AAA.

Conclusion: For now, I think being a part of the shuttle makes a lot of sense. Whenever you want to send down Svanson for bullpen help, Munoz is a good replacement.

Riley O’Brien

AAA Stats: 7 G, 7 IP, 46.7 K%, 10 BB%, 63.6 GB%, 3.86 ERA/3.01 FIP/1.61 xFIP

I don’t think this is true, because the Cardinals haven’t really done this and Riley O’Brien is 30-years-old, buuuuut for you conspiracy people out there, I believe O’Brien has been in the minors long enough for an extra year of control. It’s an absurd conspiracy because the idea of making sure you get O’Brien’s age 35 season makes no sense for an unproven guy. Nonetheless, I just want to put it out there that I think if he is promoted Friday, with 1.009 years of service time, he’ll fall under 2 years of service time if he’s in the majors all year, and thus have 5 additional years of control after this season.

Conclusions: Swap him for Fernandez. There is no reason to wait on O’Brien, he’s already 30.

JoJo Romero

MLB Stats: 11 G, 8.2 IP, 12.8 K%, 15.4 BB%, 55.6 GB%, 7.27 ERA/5.45 FIP/5.62 xFIP

Can… the Cardinals convince Romero he needs to go on the injured list? He has been somewhat shockingly bad. I’m sort of curious how long his leash is going to be. Longer than 8.2 IP I know. But… I don’t know it sort of feels like he’s not going to make it to the end of the year without getting DFA’d. I’m not sure when you consider doing that, but the fact that I can plausibly bring it up is just showing how bad he’s been.

Conclusion: Hide him as best as you can, hope results improve, do your best to convince Romero he is injured. I don’t know, kind of stuck on this one.

Chris Roycroft

AAA Stats: 3 G, 3 IP, 30.8 K%, 15.4 BB%, 66.7 GB%, 6.00 ERA/2.77 FIP/3.30 xFIP

Conclusion: Swap him and Svanson, let’s not waste bullets while his sinker is working. People forget he was an effective reliever last year!

Matt Svanson

AAA: 4 G, 5.2 IP, 17.4 K%, 8.7 BB%, 64.7 GB%, 1.59 ERA/3.08 FIP/4.21 xFIP

Ideally Svanson gets more of a chance that one inning of work. But he does have 5.2 career innings at AAA level, and didn’t really strike many out. I don’t see why he needs chances NOW. Given his current stats, I find it hard to believe in him. I’d rather hope Roycroft figured something out than run with Svanson to be honest.

Conclusion: I would send him down for Roycroft. He’s clearly not being used anyway, so he’s a waste of a bullpen spot.

So there are my solutions. Send down Svanson and Fernandez. Call up Roycroft and O’Brien. On May 1st, if Granillo is still mowing down hitters and King is in a similar place to now, I swap them. I consider DFA’ing Romero probably on June 1st if he’s anywhere near this bad. (If he hasn’t been IL’d by then).