sometimes you think of a title and write an entire post around it
It is no secret to most people reading this that the St. Lous Cardinals haven’t made a lot of moves this offseason. We could probably come up with several theories as to why that might be, but I think we can probably boil it down to one specific Big Reason: Alex Bregman. Bregman, of course, is a free agent — maybe the biggest free agent of the offseason — after spending his entire 9-year career with the Houston Astros. During that time, he has hit for a 135 wRC+, has been one of the top defenders at third base, and has amassed 39.7 fWAR (and that is with a shortened 2020 season coming off the best season of his career in 2019). He has been really good and the Astros are interested in keeping him around, at least interested enough to reportedly offer him 6-years for $156 million.
That deal allegedly wasn’t exactly what Bregman was wanting though. Although reports indicate he wished to remain in Houston, he was looking for around $200 million. MLBTradeRumors wrote in their free agent contract predictions he might agree to an estimated 7-years, $182 million. In the previous two seasons his salary was $28.5 million. The deal on the table from Astros would put his annual salary at $26 million, per MLBTradeRumors. If you do the math, 26 is less than 28.5 and a player headed into their age-31 season might not be so keen to take what they view as a pay cut ([mumbling] though the $28.5 million is from a back-loaded contract and if you take the time value of money $26 million up front really might not be a pay cut and okay I’m shutting up). Bregman is represented by Scott Boras, an agent that isn’t known to be afraid to wait out the market and take a player unsigned into March. Thus, the Bregman Free Agency Saga began.
Other teams started becoming linked to Bregman: the Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox, and Toronto Blue Jays have all been reported as interested in acquiring the third baseman, with the latest news the Blue Jays have an offer out. None of these teams seem to be a great fit, though, whether for payroll or personnel reasons or both. It seems like the market has sort of settled around the price-range the Astros have already offered, which means if Bregman’s team plans to try wait it out for a better deal and teams become more desperate, it could very well be March before any movement is made.
The ripple effects of this extend throughout the league, including, and maybe especially so, the St. Louis Cardinals within their reach. The big question mark for the Cardinals remaining is where third baseman Nolan Arenado might end up. Several of the clubs linked to Bregman have also been rumored to be kicking the tires on Arenado, likely looking into a contingency plan should the plans for Bregman not work out. Ironically enough the Arenado backup plan might be a factor in keeping teams really looking at improving third base from going after Bregman more. This puts the Cardinals in a bit of a holding pattern as they wait to see to which team Bregman goes. It is the ole offseason ouroboros; Bregman can’t get what he wants to sign because teams have another viable option, but the Cardinals can’t trade Arenado until there’s more clarity on where Bregman goes. If things continue to look like they are as of now, that answer might not be available until March, by which time the Cardinals could likely just concede going into the season with Nolan Arenado as the starting third baseman.
I write “concede”, but, as I’ve said before, there are certainly worse things that having Nolan Arenado as your third baseman. There are clearly a few teams that want to be in exactly that position. The Cardinals are a better team with Arenado on it than not. Going into a season that was announced to be focused on giving younger players the chance to get everyday playing time and shedding payroll with Nolan Arenado as the starting third baseman does work counterintuitively to those goals, though. At the mercy of Bregman’s decision, there isn’t much else they can do.
I think that is the frustrating thing for people. The Cardinals announced plans to turn their attention more to a youth movement, which sort of led fans to believe there might be something interesting going in the offseason. But then Willson Contreras wanted to stay and Sonny Gray wanted to stay, and Nolan Arenado’s market is dependent on where another third baseman lands and all of a sudden it is February and no moves have been made. It might be more satisfying to find someone at fault, some sort of negligence or obstinance in the face undeniable fact, but it just isn’t the case. In my heading I mention asking Bregman to sign somewhere out of my own selfish wishes, but he has every right and perhaps even a responsibility to try to negotiate a deal as close to what he thinks he is worth as possible. That is what free agency is all about! And if he is comfortable waiting until Spring Training to accomplish that, then he should do exactly that. Those of us looking for interesting things to happen will just have to deal with it.
But that doesn’t mean I can try to manifest something, right?
Happy Sunday!