Also get the chance to vote on the #6 prospect
I had good intentions. I planned to add the winner of the Raniel Rodriguez and Yairo Padilla poll to the general voting. The thing is that I implicitly kind of assumed Padilla would win, which was a mistake because Rodriguez had way better stats and was a catcher. Padilla did not win, and for a moment, I planned to add Rodriguez, because I wanted a representative of a DSL prospect.
But that’s actually not necessary when I realized that Leonardo Bernal was still on this list. The list of people who think Rodriguez is a better prospect than Bernal depends entirely on how many family members of Rodriguez happen to read this article and vote on the poll. Bernal, as of now, has not made any traction, and so long as that is true, Raniel Rodriguez won’t have any traction. Ergo, I can wait to add Rodriguez until Bernal looks like a contender to win the next vote. Could be the next vote, could be three votes from now, I’ll monitor it as it comes.
Jimmy Crooks won Thursday’s vote to become the fifth best prospect in the system, according to the readers of VEB. That leaves the list at:
- JJ Wetherholt, SS
- Quinn Mathews, LHP
- Tink Hence, RHP
- Thomas Saggese, 2B/3B
- Jimmy Crooks III, C
Comparable Player Corner
The comparable player corner and the new additions are attached at the hip this week. I had five players I considered adding to the general vote and I considered the exact same five players for this section. And I honestly couldn’t decide who to put where. I went back-and-forth, changed my mind a few times, tried to figure out the best angle.
The deciding factor, ultimately, is which vote gives me the most useful information. Will my future additions be guided by how this vote goes. I found my answer to that question. So today, I am giving you a poll between three AAA starting pitching prospects who are remarkably similar. The separating factor is that whoever gets the least amount of votes among these three probably does not need to be added for a few more votes, which is more useful than the other two players I considered, who you will learn about in new additions. I wanted to keep my options a little more flexible, and learning the order of these three pitchers keeps me from being forced to add all three right away.
New additions
Today I’m adding two starting pitchers, Chen-Wei Lin and Darlin Saladin. They were considered for the comparable player corner, but I dismissed it because I realized I’d still feel compelled to add the loser of the head to head poll to the voting just about immediately. So what’s the purpose of running the poll if I’m just gonna add the second guy in a vote or two anyway? That’s probably not going to happen to whoever falls in third place of the AAA group.
Leonardo Bernal, C – 21
LYR: #13
Stats (High A): 96 G, 382 PAs, .270/.343/.419, 9.7 BB%, 22.8 K%, .150 ISO, .333 BABIP, 120 wRC+, 110 DRC+
AA: 14 G, 55 PAs, .204/.291/.286, 10.9 BB%, 16.4 K%, .082 ISO, .231 BABIP, 68 wRC+, 101 DRC+
AFL: 13 G, 51 PAs, .304/.373/.391, 9.8 BB%, 17.6 K%, .087 ISO, .361 BABIP
BP: A 20-year-old catcher who hits from both sides of the plate and has an assortment of well-rounded useful offensive abilities projects to be a starter more often than not.”
This is not a comparison I particularly want to make given how he has so far turned out, but Bernal as a prospect is of the Dylan Carlson mode – pre-breaking out in AA. What I mean is that nothing necessarily pops out at you except that he’s an above average hitter at a young age. He is also a switch hitter. And frankly, if Bernal manages Carlson’s career 94 wRC+ at catcher, that’s just a much better outcome than an outfielder doing that.
Won-Bin Cho, OF – 21
LYR: #11
Stats (High A): 107 G, 428 PAs, .227/.307/.305, 8.4 BB%, 31.3 K%, .078 ISO, .343 BABIP, 81 wRC+, 74 DRC+
BP: “Cho profiles favorably in the field, a solid corner outfield defender thanks to above-average speed and adequate reads, but is likely stretched in center field.”
For frame of reference on how much time Cho has, he could spend all of this upcoming season repeating High A, and then spends 2026 in AA, and only at that point will he need to be added to the 40 man roster without getting exposed to the Rule 5 and he’ll still just be 23-years-old in AAA. If anything goes better than expected, he’ll be in AAA before being on the 40 man.
Chase Davis, OF – 23
LYR: #8
Stats (Low A): 34 G, 131 PAs, .232/.337/.401, 12.7 BB%, 25.1 K%, .169 ISO, .293 BABIP, 111 wRC+, 114 DRC+
High A: 74 G, 315 PAs, .301/.388/.451, 10.1 BB%, 25.1 K%, .150 ISO, .383 BABIP, 144 wRC+, 103 DRC+
AA: 8 G, 31 PAs, .250/.323/.429, 9.7 BB%, 16.1 K%, .179 ISO, .273 BABIP, 103 wRC+, 99 DRC+
BP: “Davis has, at individual times over the last two years, flashed every tool and skill needed for a star outcome. He just hasn’t shown them consistently as a pro.”
Your faith in Davis probably depends on two things: your faith in his narrative and your faith in his defense. He’s a different kind of prospect if he can play CF even passably. And his narrative is that he figured out how to hit in pro ball some point repeating Low A, and now he can take off like the 1st round talent that he is. If you doubt either of those things, you probably aren’t as high on him as a prospect.
Cooper Hjerpe, LHP – 24
LYR: #7
Stats (High A): 11 GS, 37.2 IP, 35.2 K%, 12.6 BB%, 50.6 GB%, .297 BABIP, 3.35 ERA/3.57 FIP/3.38 xFIP/3.78 DRA
AA: 4 GS, 14.2 IP, 35.1 K%, 14 BB%, 24.1 GB%, .207 BABIP, 3.07 ERA/2.23 FIP/3.63 xFIP/4.76 DRA
BP: “That Sale-ish weirdo delivery gives Hjerpe a lot of the same positives as Sale, although nowhere near as pronounced and with some concerns attached…. He does not yet possess anything close to Sale’s ability to spot the ball around the strike zone, and his command and control remain spotty.”
This might be the make or break season for Hjerpe to stay healthy for longer than 20 starts. His career professional high so far is just 15 starts, which he did reach last season, although he only managed 11 more innings last season than when he appeared in 10 games in 2023. I feel like they are going to give him the Ryan Helsley treatment if he has another injury-filled year and honestly it’d be hard to blame them if he has three straight years of making less than 20 starts.
Michael McGreevy, RHP – 24
LYR: #9
Stats (AAA): 27 GS, 150 IP, 21.6 K%, 6.9 BB%, 49 GB%, .314 BABIP, 4.02 ERA/3.86 FIP/4.17 xFIP/4.66 DRA
BP: “He throws basically every offspeed imaginable—something in the gyro slider/cutter range, sweeping slider, change, overhand curve, he’s got them all—and the sweeping slider is the best now, but we’re not talking an obvious plus offering, either.”
McGreevy comes with a couple questions, namely “How much do you trust his AAA stats to translate to the MLB?” and “How much do you care about ceiling?” However you think about him as a prospect hinges on your answers to those two questions.
Chen-Wei Lin, RHP – 23-years-old
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Low A): 22 GS, 116 IP, 26.6 K%, 7.8 BB%, 45.3 GB%, .282 BABIP, 2.79 ERA/2.94 FIP/3.38 xFIP/3.82 DRA
BP: “Lin turns 23 next week and has yet to pitch above Low-A, but whenever a pitcher pairs this sort of velocity on his fastball with an extremely high-whiff changeup, the right dev team is going to have a lot to work with.”
One thing I did not actually know about Lin and forgive me for not knowing this, is that he was 6’7. Yes Lin is a gigantic human being. He is also very thin. The above quote mentions the whiff-heavy changeup, and the current downside to Lin is probably that, despite the speed, his fastball doesn’t actually get many whiffs. That could change, and obviously the contrast with the change helps get the change more whiffs. But the fastball to date isn’t getting swings and misses in zone.
Sem Robberse, RHP – 22
LYR: #10
Stats (AAA): 16 G (14 GS), 84.1 IP, 21.8 K%, 7.8 BB%, 44 GB%, .273 BABIP, 4.59 ERA/4.77 FIP/4.61 xFIP/5.25 DRA
BP: Robberse at least has some whiffier offerings in his sweeper and hard changeup—which is only four mph off his fastball—and his cutterish slider has utility too, so of this group he might have the most relief conversion potential.
If you were wondering, the league average ERA in the International League is 4.83. Theoretically, that is the bar to judge all of his stats by, not just ERA. That’s at least how those stats are supposed to be tailored anyway. So he effectively was roughly around league average as a starter last season.
Tekoah Roby, RHP – 23
LYR: #4
Stats (AA): 7 GS, 33.1 IP, 21.4 K%, 7.8 BB%, 37.4 GB%, 6.75 ERA/6.59 FIP/4.19 xFIP/5.47 DRA
BP: “Roby is a stuff-model darling. The problem is that Roby just can’t stay healthy, and even when he pitched this year his stuff wasn’t as sharp and he got tattooed.”
It’s relatively likely that his stuff wasn’t as sharp last year because of the injury that knocked him out of most of last season, but nonetheless it’s still a concern because it can have long-lasting effects. With that said, I’m more worried about staying healthy than his actual stats last year, which was incredibly small sample, and again, probably influenced by his injury.
Darlin Saladin, RHP – 22
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Low A): 11 G, 60 IP, 26.8 K%, 7.4 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .287 BABIP, 1.95 ERA/2.61 FIP/3.29 xFIP/3.16 DRA
High A: 12 G, 63 IP, 27.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 42.8 GB%, 42.8 GB%, .344 BABIP, 3.43 ERA/2.73 FIP/3.29 xFIP/4.00 DRA
BP: “Saladin is another low-VAA fastball oddity king; you can really see the Cardinals trending hard in this direction over the past few years. After three years mostly bopping around the complex, he showed up in A-ball this year and torched both levels working primarily off a low-to-mid-90s heater from a flat angle.”
I imagine Saladin will start next season in High A, but there’s at least a chance he’s in AA when he makes his first start, because besides getting hit by the BABIP bug, he has remarkable similar stats in Low A and High A. I wonder if they did some offseason stuff with him last year, because he went from 49 IP to 123 in one year, which is quite the jump.