Yeah, this seems like a thing I am qualified for.
It has been a long time, so I could be misremembering, but does anyone remember that scene from the acclaimed 1995 film Clueless where Cher is picking out her outfit for the day? She had, for the time, a sophisticated inventory of all her clothes and a device that allowed her to preview each outfit in a photo of herself without having to try on the outfit and leaving a trail of outfit rejects on the floor of her room. It was the dream.
My approach to finding the St. Louis Cardinals a late-inning reliever is similar. I have an inventory of options and a preview of what they might look like as members of the St. Louis Cardinals (or rather, what I think we can expect based on their recent performance). Then we can swipe through each one until we find what we are looking for. Simple and elegant. Let’s get started.
The first step is identifying the Cardinals’ needs. According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch, the Cardinals are specifically looking for a reliever to replace the output of Andrew Kittredge, whom they lost to free agency at the beginning of the offseason. Kittredge appeared in 74 games for the Cardinals, pitching over 70 innings (the most among Cardinals relievers in 2024). In those innings he posted a 2.80 ERA with a 3.96 FIP. He struck out over 23% of batters while walking 7%. Throughout his career he has been a good fireman, leaving nearly 77% of runners on base (to be clear, that is LOB%, or runners left on base overall, not only inherited runners). In 2024 that rate was almost 82% (the highest among Cardinals relievers that pitched a significant number of innings in 2024). He has also performed well in high-leverage situations over his career. Per Fangraphs Clutch stat, which measures how well a player performs in high leverage situations versus context neutral situations, Kittredge is 2.25 runs ahead over the course of his career.
Looking at his arsenal, Kittredge throws three pitches regularly but primarily relies on two: a slider and a sinker. The third pitch a four-seam fastball, which is not nearly as interesting to me from him. It is a slight change from previous seasons where he threw his sinker more often than his slider. In 2024 he was throwing the slider for almost 50% of his pitches. According to Baseball Savant, he is in the 100th percentile in Chase percentage at 38.9%. This is largely due to having a slider with a 41.3% Wiff rate and a .177 batting average against. The pitch gets more vertical and horizontal break than average comparable sliders. It has been a very good pitch for him.
This brings me to my first free agent to discuss, which is… Andrew Kittredge. He and the Cardinals parted ways at the end of the season and with the Cardinals having announced interest in giving some of their younger prospects more playing time, it seemed like the Cardinals might round out the bullpen with players from within the organization. However, the team finds itself looking to replace the largest workload in the bullpen and are reportedly in the market. The player that held the position before would be a fine candidate.
Of course, the Cardinals are also reportedly looking to shed payroll and if the team is unable to offload the salaries of a player like Nolan Arenado, perhaps they would be less willing to shell out the estimated two years, $14 million that MLB Trade Rumors has predicted Kittredge could sign for.
An option that Goold speculated on was Texas Rangers right-hander José Leclerc. Apart from a really spectacular 2018 season, Leclerc has had mixed results, but pretty consistently a FIP in the mid 3s. In 2024 his ERA was 4.32, but his FIP was lower, though still unremarkable at 3.48. He has a 4-seamer that he throws over 95 mph on average that has a .176 batting average against as well as a slider that has a 45.7% Wiff rate. In 2024 the Rangers picked up his club option for $6.25 million, so he could demand a similar contract to Kittredge.
Another pitcher that has been mentioned as an option is Chris Martin, a right-handed free agent from the Boston Red Sox. Martin, going into his age-39 season is an interesting option for a few reasons. Though he would likely command an AAV similar to Kittredge or Leclerc, he might be more willing to take a one-year deal instead of two years, which is a big difference in risk for the Cardinals. The other aspect I found interesting about Martin is that he is a fastball pitcher, primarily throwing a cutter and a four-seamer with the occasional split finger and sinker. He is known as a strike-thrower that limits hard contact, but that doesn’t mean he can’t get batters to swing and miss. His career K% is over 25% — in 2024 it was 27.8%. Even more impressive though was his 1.7% walk rate, even lower than his career average of 3.2%. (There is just something particularly delightful to me about a pitcher that strikes batters out with fastballs and never issues walks. It just feels like baseball at its least complicated, but most precise.)
Kyle Finnegan is right-handed free agent option previously on the Washington Nationals. He lacks the overpowering stuff that Leclerc and even Kittredge has but he has consistently logged solid innings in high-leverage situations. His Fangraphs Clutch stat is 1.4 runs in his favor and he has a career 3.56 ERA to a 4.24 FIP, logging over 66 innings every season in the last four seasons. Perhaps more importantly to the Cardinals, his 2024 contract with the Nats was one year, $2.325 million, which seems likely to be similar to what he would sign for 2025.
An even more cost-friendly option yet might be a reunion with former Cardinal Joe Kelly. Kelly is going into his age-36 season after having a few down seasons in row as far as results were concerned. Since 2022 he hasn’t pitched over 40 innings in a season and his ERA hasn’t been under 4.00. He is still striking batters out though, with a K rate over 30% in 2022 and 2023, but a drop in 2024 to 24.5%. Kelly also has late-inning experience, which might be something the Cardinals are looking for specifically. (It is presently unclear if his handshake grip has become any stronger since we last spoke.)
Other pitchers I think might be good options (and maybe worthy of another post — or a Fanpost, should you feel inspired), in no particular order:
Kirby Yates (Texas Rangers)
Tommy Kahnle (New York Yankees)
Ryne Stanek (New York Mets)
Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins)
Lou Trivino (New York Yankees)
Spencer Turnbull (Philadelphia Phillies)
Paul Sewald (Arizona Diamondbacks)
You might have noticed, but I sort of organized them in order of fits I like the best to the least. The more I wrote about Andrew Kittredge, the more I convinced myself that they should just bring that guy back. There are few I didn’t get to that I think could give the Cardinals what they are looking for — stability at the end of games for a bargain. Kirby Yates and his 2.50 FIP certainly looks like a good option, though I imagine that would come at a cost. Lou Trivino has an interesting pitch arsenal to me. There are still lots of options for the Cardinals. Until they pick, we will just have to keep rotating through them until we find what we like! Happy Sunday (and stay safe out there — I am writing this at 3am to the soothing pitter-patter of sleet and ice hitting the windows)!