Also a chance to vote for the #15 prospect
Well, I’ll say this much. It’s becoming a tradition for me to be not very secretive about which picks I disagree with, and this year coming all the way down to #14 actually kinds of warms my heart. Victor Scott was the #3 prospect last year! And the year before, it was Moises Gomez at #10. The latter one isn’t ever going to look good, but Scott at least has a chance. I don’t think as high as #3 will ever look “right” given the information we had, I’ll say that. But if he becomes a starting CFer at the MLB level, it will age well.
The difference this year though is that #14 looks pretty reasonable for Koperniak’s ceiling. Like this is where you’d put a player like Koperniak if you believed in him. I do not. I view him more like Nick Martini, who is not actually a great comp, but is an effective way to express my skepticism. And Martini did manage a 131 wRC+ in 192 PAs one year, so maybe that can happen to Koperniak. In essence, I see Koperniak hanging around for years as outfield depth, but is not actually a guy you want to be the plan on Opening Day. That puts the list at:
- JJ Wetherholt, SS
- Quinn Mathews, LHP
- Tink Hence, RHP
- Thomas Saggese, 2B/3B
- Jimmy Crooks III, C
- Michael McGreevy, RHP
- Chase Davis, OF
- Leonardo Bernal, C
- Cooper Hjerpe, LHP
- Tekoah Roby, RHP
- Chen-Wei Lin, RHP
- Gordon Graceffo, RHP
- Sem Robberse, RHP
- Matt Koperniak, OF
Comparable Player Corner
Last week, I started the reliever carousel and honestly you guys aren’t making it easy. The winner of that poll is a coin flip away from the others. I would not be surprised if today is the same as the two prospects seem roughly similar. One is a year older, but also a level above. So it could go either way.
Luis Gastelum, who was signed out of Mexico in April of 2023. He will be 23 next season, and presumably at High A. Because he dominated Low A. He struck out 34.5% of batters with just a 5.4 BB%. It led to a 2.81 ERA and 2.12 xFIP.
Joseph King, drafted in the 9th round of the 2022 draft. He will be 24 next season, and presumably at AA. Because he dominated High A. He did spend most of the year injured, but in the 14 innings he threw, he struck out 34% of batters and walked just 3.8% of batters with a 2.51 ERA and 1.96 xFIP.
I actually didn’t think they were that similar, until I wrote out their stats which are crazy close. Good luck picking one of them.
New addition
The Cardinals made a move on Thursday that is both great timing and terrible timing. I had a plan to add someone else to the voting. But because Michael Helman and Matt Koperniak are the same kind of prospect and Koperniak was selected, well there’s an obligation to add Helman to the voting. Fans have no connection to Lil Mayo, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t do very well, but my hand is kind of forced here. Helman has only 29 days of service and 10 MLB PAs.
In the event where Helman does win this vote, here’s what is going to happen. On the next vote, Helman will face off against Koperniak head-to-head. If he wins that vote, he becomes the #14 prospect. And this will go on until he loses a H2H vote to someone right above him. I don’t expect him to win and even if he does win, I don’t expect him to rise in the rankings, but I feel like if we’re including him in the vote, it’s only fair to see how people really feel about him, instead of assuming he just so happened to get added at the exact right time. This was also my plan with Yairo Padilla when I added him and it’ll be my plan for anybody who wins the same vote that I add them, for the record.
Ian Bedell, RHP – 25
Stats (AA): 12 G, 64.2 IP, 29.5 K%, 7.1 BB%, 36 GB%, .265 BABIP, 4.73 ERA/4.59 FIP/3.46 xFIP
AAA: 9 G, 43 IP, 16.4 K%, 12.7 BB%, 37.7 GB%, .215 BABIP, 5.02 ERA/7.03 FIP/6.68 xFIP
BP: “The stuff is not overpowering but the arsenal is deep, allowing Bedell to turn over a lineup and stick as a starter.” (From June)
There’s a version of Bedell who was more lucky than the current one. If you remember correctly, he was drafted all the way back in 2020. Now, him missing the rest of 2020 isn’t unlucky, because he probably would have been shut down. But he literally threw 2.2 IP in 2021 and then needed surgery and he subsequently missed all of 2022 as well. His timing could have been better.
Won-Bin Cho, OF – 21
LYR: #11
Stats (High A): 107 G, 428 PAs, .227/.307/.305, 8.4 BB%, 31.3 K%, .078 ISO, .343 BABIP, 81 wRC+, 74 DRC+
BP: “Cho profiles favorably in the field, a solid corner outfield defender thanks to above-average speed and adequate reads, but is likely stretched in center field.”
I’ve stressed it in the past, but a belief in Cho, the prospect, necessarily requires that you sort of discard his past season. It was not a good year, there’s no way to make it look like a good year. But he also had a bad year in High A at 20-years-old, and most of this list were older than 20 when they reached High A. (Or haven’t reached it yet)
Michael Helman, 28 – IF/OF
LYR: Not in system
Stats (AAA): 72 G, 314 PAs, .271/.350/.487, 9.2 BB%, 24.2 K%, .217 ISO, .323 BABIP, 116 wRC+
BP: Much the same as Koperniak, I don’t know that BP has ever written a word about Helman.
Helman also got 10 plate appearances at the MLB level, hitting 2 doubles and batting .300. You guys already know he plays all over the field – no idea what to list his position at to be honest. And another nugget of info is that he seems to be able to steal bases efficiently with 81 stolen bases to 12 caught stealing since 2021.
Brian Holiday, 22 – RHP
LYR: Not in system
Stats (College): 16 GS, 113 IP, 28.6 K%, 4.2 BB%, .089 WHIP, 2.95 ERA
BP: “Because he’s short—listed at 5-foot-11—and has visual effort in his motion, he’s going to carry a future reliever tag until he doesn’t, but if the Cardinals are truly improving on pitcher development, Holiday has the type of arsenal they should start to see more successful outcomes with.”
It’s tough being the “safe pick” when you haven’t actually pitched an inning of pro ball. Like he’s probably not going to run into much trouble until AAA, but since we haven’t actually since him pitch, he doesn’t feel as safe.
Travis Honeyman, OF – 23
LYR: #20
Stats (Low A): 14 G, 60 PAs, .321/.367/.446, 5 BB%, 13 K%, .125 ISO, .375 BABIP, 133 wRC+
BP: Honeyman has a punchy little line-drive oriented swing, a tight barrel loop that generates explosive impact out in front of the plate. He’s geared to turn and burn, sending most of his contact to the pull side.
Honeyman is a position player who has the prospect profile of a pitcher. Theoretically, a position player with his injury history isn’t as risky as a pitcher would be. Remember Tommy Pham, who has had a weirdly healthy MLB career given his minor league injury history. But also if he is never actually on the field, it’s kind of hard for him to advance!
Yairo Padilla, SS – 18
LYR: Unranked
Stats (DSL): 162 PAs, .287/.391/.404, 10.5 BB%, 17.9 K%, .118 ISO, .355 BABIP, 121 wRC+
BP: “Padilla is an eye scouting marvel: a tall, skinny, classically projectable 17-year-old who takes a smooth swing from both sides of the plate. If you believe in the old ways of scouting even a little bit, you’re liable to see a future star here.”
Padilla is probably the one prospect this low in the rankings to have a chance to become the best prospect in the system at some point. On the other hand, assuming an 18-year-old develops strength and starts hitting the ball harder is less than reliable. And even if that happens, it’s not like it’s a guarantee either.
Max Rajcic, RHP – 23
LYR: #12
Stats (AA): 25 G, 131 IP, 23.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 39.2 GB%, .314 BABIP, 4.33 ERA/4.41 FIP/4.03 xFIP/4.59 DRA
BP: “He has a very pretty looking but humpy curveball, though his changeup has actually taken a step forward to claim the title of his best offspeed offering (to go along with various flavors of slider).”
I’ll have to remind people that the offensive environment at both AA and AAA is quite offense-friendly, which I point out because his AA numbers are above average. I know they don’t look above average, but they are. And it’s not like they are barely above average either. The average ERA in the International League was 4.83.
Rainiel Rodriguez, C – 18
LYR: Not in organization
Stats (DSL): 41 G, 184 PAs, .345/.462/.683, 16.3 BB%, 13.6 K%, .338 ISO, .345 BABIP, 186 wRC+
BP: “He hits the ball pretty hard for his age, makes enough contact, controls the zone well, and might stick behind the dish.”
Rodriguez is in an interesting spot as a prospect. He currently has both offense and defense going for him, but the odds that both remain strengths as he rises through the system seem slim. His bat needs to remain elite if he has to move to 1B and it is far too early to say if he can stick at catcher, though sticking at catcher would be the easier way for him to remain prominent.
Darlin Saladin, RHP – 22
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Low A): 11 G, 60 IP, 26.8 K%, 7.4 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .287 BABIP, 1.95 ERA/2.61 FIP/3.29 xFIP/3.16 DRA
High A: 12 G, 63 IP, 27.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 42.8 GB%, 42.8 GB%, .344 BABIP, 3.43 ERA/2.73 FIP/3.29 xFIP/4.00 DRA
BP: “Saladin is another low-VAA fastball oddity king; you can really see the Cardinals trending hard in this direction over the past few years. After three years mostly bopping around the complex, he showed up in A-ball this year and torched both levels working primarily off a low-to-mid-90s heater from a flat angle.”
I’m kind of excited to see how the surprise Low A guys perform this year. I don’t think I can remember a year where almost everybody seemed to pitch well out of nowhere at any level like what happened in Low A last season. Saladin is the only one who actually got promoted to High A, but just generally speaking, I’ll be curious to see how everyone translates (and Saladin translated just fine last year).
Zack Showalter, RHP – 21
LYR: #21 (He was close to winning 20th vote)
Stats (Low A): 24 G, 34.1. IP, 38.6 K%, 11.8 BB%, 43.9 GB%, .373 BABIP, 2.62 ERA/2.48 FIP/3.02 xFIP
BP: “His low-90s, sub-4 VAA fastball out of an extremely funky delivery was absurdly dominant against Low-A hitters, and he also weaponized a sweeper against same-side batters for a very tough look.”
I wonder what a successful 2025 season looks like for Showalter and what that does to his status as a prospect. It is unlikely to quell concerns, because he is unlikely to suddenly throw 100+ innings. I don’t think the Cardinals will allow that. But if he repeats his performance over 60 or so innings, where does that place him as a prospect next year?