This team is a mystery wrapped inside a riddle curled up into a conundrum… or just mediocre?
Greetings VEB, we are getting closer to some real games! The NL Central is full of intrigue this year with the Cubs as the new team to beat, the Brewers still formidable, and the Cardinals and Reds not far behind in sort of a rebuild phase.
The NL Central appears to be the Cubs division to lose this year, with a consensus of projections systems favoring their roster, depth, and all around good-on-paper team. This is because they made the biggest splash within the division during the offseason by signing Kyle Tucker, who should be a difference maker for them. The Reds appear to be a little bit improved with an entering his peak years Ely de la Cruz, and a decent supporting cast and rotation and perhaps healthier years from some of their key players. The Brewers will probably be even better than projected, as has been the case in recent years. And the Cardinals should be a mystery team that could finish anywhere in the standings.
The Pirates just don’t seem to have as much to offer in order to compete. 1B Spencer Horowitz probably won’t be worth more than 2 WAR. 2B Nick Gonzalez should crack 2 WAR but not much more than that. Isiah Kiner-Falafa is some guy I have never heard of at SS, barely above a win over replacement level. Ke’Bryan Hayes plays 3B and will also not crack 2 WAR. C Joey Bart is closer to a 1 WAR player than a 2 WAR. RF Bryan Reynolds should be their star but probably won’t even be above 2.5 WAR. CF Oneil Cruz could also be a star and projects to be a bit better than anyone on their team with a strong chance he will be worth more than 3 WAR. And they have Tommy Pham in LF who is not supposed to be very good this year. DH Andrew McCutchen is their elder statesman but should not be much of a factor either in 2025 at an age approaching 40 years old.
The Pirates real star is obviously Paul Skenes who might crack 5 WAR this year. The consensus of projections see him as more of a 4.86 WAR level and he’s still pretty young, but if you ask the average baseball fan the sky’s the limit with Skenes. Rotation #2 spot is occupied by Mitch Keller and he could be worth about 2.5 WAR. Jared Jones is another solid rotation arm adding another 2.5 WAR if they’re lucky. Andrew Heaney and Bailey Falter round out the rotation with 1 to 1.5 WAR arms, if I am very optimistic about them. So their rotation is a strength but it is not like a world beater or anything.
The Pirates positional players outside of Cruz and Reynolds are really holding them back because their rotation is going to be 12+ WAR probably. Without question, Pittsburgh has the best starting pitching in the NL Central with Paul Skenes at the top, so they will be annoying for the whole division… but they will probably finish in last place as per usual unless the Cardinals play like they did in 2023.
As a Cardinals fan I have no idea whether or not to be optimistic or pessimistic about the 2025 squad, so I have decided to be neutral about them and expect about the same performance as last year, probably around .500 mediocrity. That way they might be a pleasant surprise if they do well, and if they can’t figure it out, well, at least it’s a transition year. The scapegoat lame duck Mozeliak will be gone soon enough. But they will probably be aggravatingly mid.
This will be another year that the Cardinals have the anticlimatic 1 game opening day and then a day off just after. They open the season at home vs the Twins on Thursday March 27th at 3:15pm. And then the Angels and the Red Sox! I cannot even begin to explain how weird it is that the Cardinals are beginning the year vs three American League teams but I suppose the leagues do not matter anymore with Manfred’s designated hitter “position” still in effect for both leagues. I will always demand the DH be removed from NL play.
Spring Training
I just noticed that the Brewers have hit over 25 home runs in spring training. The Cardinals aren’t hitting the ball too well with the new hitting coach in place, towards the bottom in total number of hits. They are walking a lot though so maybe they are focusing more on plate discipline this spring? Or opposing pitchers aren’t giving them much to it?
The stolen bases and home runs are pretty middle of the pack, but the lack of total hits is worrisome. That said, spring training is darn near meaningless and there is a small sample size caveat. The Cardinals have a run scoring problem this spring, whether that means anything or not is anyone’s guess. But last year they had a problem knocking runners in. So this makes me a little worried, if it weren’t for sequencing and the fact that Paul Goldschmidt is no longer with the team.
But again, let’s remind ourselves there is very little correlation between spring training statistics and how good a team is in the regular season. There is both a small sample size problem and the issue that players are working on warming up for serious play, trying new things out, and just not locked in yet. It’s just fun for the fans, because we have had no baseball for a while. And hopefully fun for the players too while they get back into the swing of things.
For every encouraging plot twist, such as Arenado’s increased bat speed, Matz looking like a really good starting pitcher, & Baker and Gorman flashing some power, there are worrisome things like Pallante and McGreevy getting crushed, Matz being injury prone, and the power hitters not making contact much. We are reminded this team needs a lot of depth for the gold to pan out. This year feels like there aren’t a lot of defined roles in the starting rotation, questions about the starting outfield composition, and who will play second base.
This will be better analyzed with more spring training info under our belts, since there are still weeks left for things to formalize. And even then the roster will ebb and flow over the months beyond opening day.
Things I don’t like about spring training: the Cubs have 5 players with 10 hits or more. Pete Crow-Armstrong is batting over .500 at the time of this writing (somehow higher than his .500 OBP). Meanwhile Cardinals players Victor Scott II, Thomas Saggese, Willson Contreras, and Matt Koperniak all have 7 hits on Monday night. All of those 4 Cardinals have a really good on-base percentage .375 to .475 range. Small sample size theater!
Which Cardinals hitters are having the best season so far? It is now Tuesday night. Willson Contreras, Luken Baker, Ivan Herrera, and Victor Scott II are all having the best spring at the plate on the Cardinals with OPS north of 1.000. Actually many of the hitters are not having a bad spring at the plate, but some of them are off to a horrendous start. Masyn Winn, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado, and up and comers Chase Davis, JJ Wetherholt, and the injured Jordan Walker are not hitting too well. But hey, there’s not much to go on and it’s training time.
11 Keys to the 2025 Cardinals roster
- Will Nolan Arenado be traded this year? if so that will remove who is likely our best position player. He should be a 3 WAR player and if not, still above 2. The projections think he will only be a slightly above average hitter, but with plus defense. And with news of his bat speed increasing in spring training, he could perhaps raise up to a 4 WAR player if we are dreaming. Aging players like Sonny Gray, Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras still account for a lot of the Cardinals chances of winning.
- Willson Contreras ain’t no young bird but he could still be good for a 120 wRC+ (unless he hits like last year! he hit at 140) with around 20-25 home runs (maybe more!). The real plot will be how he looks playing first base, and how many Masyn Winn throws he can save (if Winn is still a bit wild).
- Sonny Gray will probably be our best player in 2025. He should deliver a 3+ WAR season, maybe even 3.5+ WAR. His floor is literally around 3 WAR and his ceiling is a Cy Young contender. The season rides a lot on how good Sonny Gray is this year. If he is not this good in his age 35 season, the rotation will not look good either.
- Let’s not forget another key to the roster that could supplant Arenado as the best position player: Masyn Winn! Steamer’s projection thinks that Winn could approach the 4 WAR level! He will also be similar to Arenado in that his value rides more on defense than offense. The offense projections don’t think he will be anything more than an average MLB hitter this year. If he ends up being more than that hitting-wise, watch out! He would be a star.
- If Nolan Gorman plays full time, he will be expected to hit 20-25 home runs or more while playing second base (unless of course, the other Nolan magically teleports to another team). If he struggles at the plate like he did last season though, and at other times during his career, he won’t be a full timer. This is why he’s such a key to the roster. Will he be a power factor or a non-factor? Or just in the way? So far in spring training he looks like he could still go either way. Streaky hitter.
- Lars Nootbaar will be a key player to the Cardinals roster if he can stay healthy. Another possible 3 WAR player would help win some games! He is up there with Contreras and Herrera in OBP so he should be one of the bats setting the table towards the top of the order. And he will also have a little bit of power approaching 20 home runs if we’re lucky. The defense ain’t great but he gets on base.
- Ivan Herrera could be one of the best hitters on the team in 2025, but will he be a liability because people run on him all the time, and succeed? Or will he be improved enough to be more than a platoon player? Perhaps certain starters will prefer one of Herrera or Pages. Or will one of our burgeoning corps of minor league catchers force their way into the catcher’s seat? Catcher feels pretty safe and Herrera doesn’t have to be the guy there, if he cannot throw runners out. His on-base percentage looks to be similar to Willson Contreras so I think we will see him playing a lot, one way or the other.
- Brendan Donovan will be a key player as super utilityman and proven Good Hitter. I would bat him at leadoff due to his ability to spray the ball around the diamond and because he might possess the best on-base percentage of the whole damn team (if ZIPS is correct). At least that’s what the projections are looking like. We don’t know what position he will play most but he’s actually a pretty good defensive left fielder if we need to go that route. Must get his bat in the lineup towards the top, and he does have a little bit of pop too for his hitting style. He is in his prime years at 28 so maybe he will surprise us with more than a mid 2 WAR or even 3-4. I remember a time when we thought Brendan Donovan could even be a star player.
- Will Victor Scott II be the center fielder? He will be a better hitter than Siani but less of a defender. Albeit, still above average out there in the field. Can he surpass his sub 100 wRC+ projections? Or will his hitting or lack thereof allow the superior defense of Siani to take over again? Or will someone else end up being our center fielder? This is one of the bigger questions of the season. We don’t want Lars Nootbaar playing center field.
- Erick Fedde is either a good #2 starter with his newfound pitching skills, or more of a back of the rotation starter. If he can lock down the middle of the rotation and eat some innings, that will suffice. But it will pressure someone else to be the rotation’s #2. At least he isn’t expected to be the best pitcher on the staff or anything like that.
- …and of course Ryan Helsley! The second best pitcher on the team and best bullpen arm. Will he be a Cardinal all year or competing for a better team? Time will tell. But if he stays, he is certainly one of our key players locking down those close games. He has added a cutter to his repertoire which already included a scorching fastball, slider, and curveball.
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Album Hall of Fame
Unwound – ‘The Future of What?’ (higher quality YT music link) Unwound is the best punk band you may have never heard of. They’re too weird for paint by the numbers punk rock, but too catchy for some of the more “avant” punks. I have one of their vinyl box sets, most of their CDs (or did at one point), a t-shirt, and have seen them twice… once at the Fireside Bowl in Chicago on their last tour with the original lineup, and once during the reunion tour thanks to an internet stranger who randomly happened to be from St Louis. She helped hook me up with a discounted ticket and is now one of my best friends. What a saint. (she actually no longer lives in St Louis but we hang out when she visits her home town). The world is a strange, wonderful place.
Unwound is a DIY, cult underground leftist punk band with the best woman drummer in the world (in a rock band at least). The band’s bassist tragically died before their reunion tour, so they recruited the bassist from KARP and Big Business/Melvins fame. All of these folks being from Olympia, WA. I will be inducting several Unwound albums into the album hall of fame, but I’ll start with ‘The Future of What?’ because everything feels very up in the air and unsettled right now. What is this country? What are the Cardinals? What is the future? It’s a time of monsters and heroes who rise to the occasion. I mean, the Cubs are supposed to be good! That can never be a good thing.
The album starts out with thrilling urgency, a rallying cry: “Where’s your energy? There’s no energy! What about the future of what it is?”. Both times I have seen this band live, were two of the best concerts I’ve seen. They’re even better live. To say the experience is emotionally moving is an understatement. Absolutely soul crushing.
I will have to admit this is a band that you’ll either absolutely love, or not like much at all. Maybe a few of you out there will dig it. I’ve been a fan since I moved to Chicago in 1997 and hung out with the cool kids in college. One of my favorite bands ever and always will be. Thank you Unwound for all you do.
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That’s all I got for this week. Did not quite make it to 3,000 words, but I tried. Maybe next time true believer. Thank you for all your support and reading and commenting.