Everyone has reported to spring training and it’s time to take stock on how I predicted it would go.
My first article I submitted for Viva El Birdos back at the beginning of November was actually created in mid-October before the festivities of the offseason had begun. At the conclusion of the season Cardinals top brass held their end of season press conference and signaled a shift in their roster building philosophy. Cardinals President of Baseball Operations, John Mozeliak, indicated they’d be investing more significantly in player development rather than spreading themselves thin on that front and pushing every available dollar to the MLB roster for the intention of contention. The team faced uncertainty of a new TV deal, decline in revenue from ticket sales, and inconsistent play from young players attempting to establish themselves at the Major League level. Lets review how (poorly) I did based on my ability, or apparent lack thereof, to “read the room.”
The Cardinals will go outside the organization to hire a new hitting coach.
One for one so far and I feel good about it! I had speculated at the outset of the offseason the Cardinals should approach AAA hitting coach for the Boston Red Sox Rich Gedman who has STL ties, a successful track record of working with young hitters, and is familiar with Chaim Bloom during their time in Boston together. Instead, the team opted to hire Brant Brown who has worked with the LA Dodgers, Miami Marlins, and Seattle Mariners previously and came highly recommended by Skip Schumaker and Albert Pujols. Brown brings with him former MLB experience as a player and an understanding of both analytical and traditional hitting approaches and philosophies and John Mozeliak described him as a “middle ground between Jeff Albert and Turner Ward.”
It was important and long overdue that the Cardinals go outside the organization to affect change to their hitting group and baseball operations department. This was an encouraging first step in that direction and all offseason we’ve heard hitters have taken a liking to what Brown has instructed of them. Time will tell when they start playing games just what type of impact that change will have.
The Cardinals will shed significant salary.
Two for two and this is about as good as it is going to get for me. The team faced significant financial questions at the outset of the offseason and their most prolific cost cutting measure was to let all of their veteran players leave in free agency. The Cardinals declined options on Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Keynan Middleton. They also allowed Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Kittredge to leave via Free Agency which resulted in over 50 million dollars in savings. The only financial growth that occurred for the Cardinals players over the offseason were their raises through Arbitration. Fangraphs projected the Cardinals opening day payroll to be 147 million in 2025 which is 40 million dollars lower that 2024.
The Cardinals will trade 2 of their veteran players.
Two for Three and I’m still hitting .667 and goes to show how hard perfection is to obtain. Between Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, and Steven Matz I predicted that two of them would be traded. Unfortunately, for my prediction, Sonny and Willson both proclaimed a desire to stay and given their NTC they have the power to say no to any deal. We heard rumblings in the middle of the offseason that the Tigers and Guardians had levels of interest in trading for Steven Matz but a deal never materialized. The Nolan Arenado saga has been beaten to death over and over and over again so I’ll save you that and just say the inactivity is frustrating from both a fan perspective and one who relies on the team to do things to provide interesting and compelling content for fans. However, as I’ve monitored Nolan’s Instagram activity, hitting in the cage and such, and knowing the fierce competitor he is, I’m not betting against him this season to bounce back. Even if he’s his 2023 version of himself, that’s a valuable player and an easier commodity to trade with one less season of commitment attached. If the goal is solely to move him and not compete with him then it should be more than possible next season if he bounces back. Anyway, they traded 0 of the 4 players and I’m a big stupid doo-doo head, in the words of my 7-year-old, respectfully.
The Cardinals will sell high on Helsley and Siani
Two for four is still .500 and a good day at the plate but I’m no longer confident in my abilities and may get sent to the written media version of AAA (you all can decide what that is.) Ryan Helsley displayed an ability to stay healthy and dominant for the entirety of the 2024 season and was a significant reason the team overperformed their Pythagorean record. For that reason alone, I felt his value as a pitcher would never be higher and the risk of carrying him into the 2025 season would be far too great for a risk averse front office group and maximizing on selling the asset at its highest value would be smart business practice, even if it made the team worse. Similarly, Michael Siani showed 99th percentile defensive accumen and probably has gold in his glove. He had a 3 month offensive stretch that was (probably) unsustainable over a career and trying to sell the asset at peak value with 5 years of remaining control when he cost nothing to acquire in the first place, claiming him off waivers from Cincinnati, and obtaining an asset or two from a defense needy team and providing a clearer runway for Victor Scott II to everyday CF at bats made a lot of sense to me. Mozeliak laughed in my metaphorical face and kept both and so the world turns.
The Cardinals extend Brendan Donovan to a 5 Year 62.5 Million dollar deal.
Two for five is my final tally and I couldn’t be more disgusted with myself. I’m considering retirement after my initial Lin-sanity run (That’s a joke, I enjoy annoying you all with my opinions.) This one felt like the most obvious to me and I can’t understand the rationale behind not doing so. Donovan has been a consistent offensive performer amassing at least 10% above league average offensive production each season according to OPS+, he’s versatile and a gold glove defender, he runs the bases well, a tremendous leader in the clubhouse. All around he makes sense as someone to keep around in the same way that the 2010’s Cubs teams valued Ben Zobrist and his versatility and team first attitude. Oh well, what do I know. (eye roll)
-Thanks for reading.