Nolan Arenado will likely remain a member of the St. Louis Cardinals in 2025

A deal is not materializing.

I am taking a risk because I am actually writing this post a few days in advance and not mere hours before it is supposed to be published, per tradition. I won’t have the time to do that, so this is what I must do. Writing this early is a risk because the thesis of this post is that Nolan Arenado looks likely to start 2025 as the St. Louis Cardinals third baseman. The risk though, is that if the Cardinals do happen to pull off a blockbuster trade before this post is scheduled to go up on Sunday morning, I am going to look like a real donut.

There is still a chance the Cardinals make a trade, but it is growing ever slimmer with each passing day in this offseason. The Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals have all been suggested to be potential trade partners for the Cardinals, but due to payroll constraints or Arenado’s No Trade Clause, none seem like a great fit. Reports indicate the only real potential trade partner left for a deal would be the Boston Red Sox. And even then… it doesn’t really make a lot of sense for the Red Sox to do that. They have a third baseman signed through 2033 in Rafael Devers. Devers’s defense is not quite up to what Arenado could bring, but moving Devers to first base would push out 24-year-old Triston Casas. In that case, perhaps the best avenue for the Sox would be to trade Casas, but it is debatable if trading for Arenado, then trading away Casas would be anything better than break-even as opposed keeping that part of the roster as is. Then on top of all that, according to MLBTradeRumors, the Red Sox might be more interested in Alex Bregman.

If that is the best chance the Cardinals have at making a deal with a team, the odds seem low one will materialize, at least this offseason. According to Katie Woo of The Athletic, the Cardinals are not interested in eating a significant portion of Arenado’s remaining contract. The intention in trading Arenado in the first place is to lower the payroll. A trade where the Cardinals are responsible for a large amount of Arenado’s salary would certainly hinder that goal.

If course there is still a lot that could happen. Certainly nothing is a guarantee. The signs just don’t seem to point to an Arenado trade just yet, not considering what other teams want, Arenado wants, and what the Cardinals want. Perhaps as the season goes on and either injuries or ineffectiveness begin to settle in for teams, the market will open in the Cardinals favor. Or maybe it doesn’t and the Cardinals just move forward with Nolan Arenado as their third baseman. There are certainly worse things.

Let’s end with some quick updates on the Cardinals arbitration eligible players:

The Cardinals agreed to contracts with three of their six arbitration eligible players:

The three players the Cardinals did not reach agreements with and will likely go to arbitration are:

That’s all I have for you all this week. Do you think the Cardinals will trade Arenado this offseason? I’m curious to know everyone’s thoughts. Happy Sunday!