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Nolan Gorman Breakout: A Deep Dive

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Nolan Gorman Breakout: A Deep Dive

Expectations were high when the St. Louis Cardinals selected Nolan Gorman with the 18th overall pick in the 2018 draft. Somehow, Gorman has managed to exceed those expectations nearly five years later in his second MLB season. The 23-year-old infielder has been arguably the most productive Cardinals hitter this year, leading the club in OPS+ (139), home runs (15), and RBI (46). Gorman’s breakout bat will be vital as the Cardinals seek to climb out of the basement of the NL Central.

Quality Over Quantity

Gorman’s swing has always been capable of producing good results. In 2022, his barrel rate of 14.4% ranked 20th of all hitters with at least 150 batted balls. This year, that figure has increased marginally to 15.6%. What has changed drastically has been the quality of swing decisions. Gorman has lowered his swing percentage from 51.1% in 2022 to 47.3% this season. The impressive part about this transition is that Gorman was simultaneously able to increase his meatball swing percentage by over 6%. Gorman is not simply resting the bat on his shoulder. He is chasing less and swinging more at better pitches, allowing his elite swing to work for him. Gorman’s improved swing decisions have been a major factor in his offensive ascension.

Hit the Heater

It is no secret that big league pitchers today are throwing harder than ever. As any given team likely has an assortment of pitchers that can exceed 95 mph, hitters have to be ready for the heat. Gorman had immense troubles with the fastball in 2022, posting a .194 average against the pitch. 2023 has been a completely different story as Gorman raised his average versus fastballs to .273. Additionally, nine of his 15 home runs this season have come against the fastball. Gorman is hitting fastballs more often and with authority. In  April, he spoke about making the off-season adjustment: “It’s always good to…have that struggle so you kind of know…what they’re attacking you with. So, I was able to have that last year, go into the offseason and…plan for the next year, this year, and…attack those weaknesses.

Perhaps it was the result of an offseason swing adjustment, becoming more accustomed to big league velocity, or a bit of both. Regardless, Gorman’s performance against fastballs this year has been a night-and-day difference from his rookie season. Gorman, like every other hitter, sees more fastballs than any other pitch. Therefore, it makes sense that such a change may lead to an offensive outburst.

Clutch Factor

Gorman takes his performance to another level when the game is on the line. In late and close games, as defined by Baseball Reference, he has registered an other-worldly 1.304 OPS and five home runs over 38 plate appearances. This has translated to Gorman’s 1.4 WPA which leads the Cardinals by a wide margin. On May 20 against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Gorman had his biggest clutch moment so far this season. Gorman turned on an offering from lefty Victor Gonzalez for a three-run homer for what would prove to be the difference in a 6-to-5 Cardinals win. From this perspective, Gorman’s outstanding stat line may sell him short in terms of his impact on the Cardinals’ success. It takes a special player to succeed in the highest-leverage situations against the game’s top relievers. Gorman has done that better than any other Cardinal this season.

Concluding Thoughts

It is an encouraging sign that Gorman’s success seems to be related to experience. The talent was already there, it was just a matter of putting it all together. He is still yet to play a full MLB season, so improvement is to be expected as he becomes more accustomed to big league pitching. Gorman seems to be making the necessary adjustments and blossoming into a superstar, and he still has room to grow. His 28.8% strikeout rate checks out at the 14th percentile in MLB. However, this is an improvement from his 2022 rate of 32.9%. If Gorman can continue improving in this department, the sky is the limit.

 

Photo Credit- Jerome Miron- USA TODAY Sports

Players Mentioned- Nolan Gorman, Victor Gonzalez

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