The lack of activity in the offseason will have consequential circumstances for certain players.
Remember how well my last predictions went? Pepperidge Farm remembers. As some of you eloquently stated, I maintained a .400 average on my predictions, and that’s a nice thought. However, I grade myself on the traditional scale and a 40% out of 100 is still an F.
As I attempt to channel my inner Fire Marshall Bill; “LET ME SHOW YOU SOMETHING!” while tattered and beaten down by my previous examples that won’t dissuade me from potentially setting myself on fire once more in an effort to show you how dangerous something is. I’ll lay out my predictions for how I (think) the roster will look come opening day as we begin spring games activity.
Starting Rotation:
SP1 Sonny Gray
SP2 Erick Fedde
SP3 Andre Pallante
SP4 Miles Mikolas
SP5 Steven Matz
Explain yourself: It’s no secret this team in the offseason still valued veteran stability going into the regular season and, though some disagree and feel that this group is holding back the “transition” as were calling it now. From John Mozeliak’s experienced position, having the necessary innings covered going into the season is still something they value; thus, we begin with this veteran group of five. The obvious caveat to this group is Steven Matz, and perhaps Michael McGreevy, who would likely fill that spot should the oft injured Matz not make it to opening day.
Bullpen:
CL Ryan Helsley
SU JoJo Romero
SU Ryan Fernandez
MRP Matthew Liberatore
MRP John King
MRP Riley O’Brien
MRP Nick Anderson
LRP Kyle Leahy
What you talkin’ bout’ Willis?!: Helsley and JoJo were two thirds of the most dominant relief trio in the NL last season and youngster Ryan Fernandez proved more than enough last season he’s capable of logging high leverage appearances and making the most of the opportunities. I have the fullest confidence he can step into the Kittredge role this season before being a front runner next season for the available closer spot going into ‘26.
Liberatore and Leahy have been instructed to come into spring prepared as starters and this has been a pretty common practice across baseball for swing relievers to be more adequately prepared to handle bulk innings in relief spots. Both showed enough last season they should have sturdy holds on bullpen spots, though Leahy is likely going to ride the Memphis shuttle a couple times this season as well as names like Graceffo, Roycroft, Svanson, Munoz, Loutos should all get opportunities to cycle through at various points of the season.
Riley O’Brien was named specifically at Winter Warm Up by Ryan Helsley as someone he thought would be a nice fill in for Kittredge after he left, saying plainly “he’s nasty.” So, a healthy spring from him should all but solidify his spot on the OD roster. John King is in arbitration and earning a modest 1.6 million in 2025. He also proved himself as a genuine groundball specialist in the left-handed version of Seth Maness or Matt Bowman, posting a 61% ground ball rate. King does have an option remaining so, theoretically, he could be optioned but if we “follow the money” I would at least be mildly surprised if he doesn’t stay on the roster the entire season.
Finally, I think the front office targeted Nick Anderson for a reason and if he makes it through spring healthy (obvious caveat) then his veteran presence will be something they value and if the team is out of it at the deadline and Anderson rebounds he can be a chip the team uses to obtain an asset at the deadline. That’s best personal case scenario, though should they fall out of contention.
Starting Lineup vs RHP:
CF Lars Nootbaar
SS Masyn Winn
DH Alec Burleson
1B Willson Contreras
LF Brendan Donovan
3B Nolan Arenado
RF Jordan Walker
2B Nolan Gorman
C Ivan Herrera
Starting Lineup vs LHP:
CF Lars Nootbaar
SS Masyn Winn
1B Willson Contreras
3B Nolan Arenado
DH Ivan Herrera
LF Brendan Donovan
RF Jordan Walker
2B Nolan Gorman
C Pedro Pages
Say whaaaat?: Lets start from the top and work our way down. Lars Nootbaar has a career 13.6 BB% and is the 100th percentile in chase% according to Baseball Savant, which means he’s the best in baseball at only swinging at pitches in the zone. He’s 91st percentile in hard hit%, and 89th percentile in xwOBA. Lars works counts as well as any player in the league, he has a .348 career OBP and 116 wRC+ making him an ideal leadoff hitter in today’s game.
Masyn Winn in the two spot makes a lot of sense as a potential 20-20 guy. Winn displayed an advanced understanding of situational hitting and his ability to guide hits through the right side would be a benefit. For example, if Lars starts the game with a walk or base hit, then Masyn’s ability to shoot the ball through the right side in a two strike situation or ability to “turn and burn” on an inside fastball could line up a 1st and 3rd situation where Winn can use his speed and take 2nd base setting up RBI opportunities for 3-4-5 in the order whether that be Burleson/Contreras/Donovan or Contreras/Arenado/Herrera to NOT repeat last season’s putrid performance with RISP.
For Alec Burleson, I see him as a strong side platoon option at DH and that’s not a bad thing. We look at guys like Joc Pederson who have a niche role and succeed when put in the proper position to do so. For example, last season in 453 PA against RHP, Burleson slashed .292/.341/.464 good for an .805 OPS. However, in 142 PA against LHP he slashed .195/.229/.286 for just a .515 OPS. Also, given that Burleson ran out of gas down the stretch last season it might benefit him with the added rest to maximize his opportunities in the best possible conditions to succeed. Pedro Pages would be the other half of this platoon in a more unique way than the traditional platoon. In 2024, a season where he jumped basically from AA he had a .657 OPS in 218 PA. An aspect I think gets overlooked frequently is Pages really not having all that much time in AAA and is still growing and adjusting to MLB caliber pitching. I say that because in 2023 in AA he hit .267/.362/.443 with 16 HR and 72 RBI. I think Pages was thrust into a spot and had to, as quickly as he could, catch up and adjust to a giant leap. Pages has 25 career games in AAA which, as we know, is already a big enough gap between AAA and MLB, adding to the gap that exist between AA and MLB I can reasonably say that there’s more potential in Pages bat than was displayed in 2024 and I’m personally excited to see what 2025 brings for Pedro.
As Willson Contreras moves out from behind the plate defensively it’s reasonable that his offense could take another step up. In just 358 PA last season, Contreras still managed to amass an .848 OPS. Savant also places him in the 93rd percentile for xwOBA at .365 and 97th percentile for BB% at 12.6. Contreras is an elite hitter who has elite plate discipline and from a complete and healthy season should come a major offensive step forward from what the Cardinals received last season from Paul Goldschmidt. The defense will probably be a little clunky and at times he may make some learning mistakes. I expect by the end of the season we won’t really notice him at 1B which is all you can really ask for from someone in their first season transitioning to a new defensive position.
Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado, Ivan Herrera all should benefit from the opportunities to drive in runs that are afforded to them from those listed ahead of them in the order. In the case of Donovan and Arenado those guys are historically dependable as offensive contributors. In the case of Arenado specifically he has MVP upside if he can re-gain his form. Though that may be a lot to ask for, Goldy won his MVP at age 35 so it’s not to be ruled out by any stretch, but its best to temper expectations going into 2025 after back-to-back down seasons from the multi-platinum glove winning 3rd basemen. Ivan Herrera doesn’t quite have the track record the other two have displayed, though, he does have recent success and upside in his corner and an .800 OPS in 259 PA last season. If Herrera is given the necessary runway of PA across a full season underlying metrics suggest he will be one of the best offensive Catchers in all of MLB.
Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker — this is very well where this offense can be defined. If one or both of these guys take the steps forward and have the seasons everyone thinks they can, it immediately provides a boost to the offense that last year’s team never had and the team may be in better shape in the near future than anticipated. It’s also incredibly likely that if both players wind up realizing their potential that they wont stay in the 7-8 spots in the order for very long. If both players fail to take the step forward the offense will be left with a lot of interesting pieces but maybe no focal point/anchor for the immediate future and would require addressing from the new regime being put in place.
Bench:
Burleson/Pages (depending on handedness of pitcher)
Luken Baker
Michael Helman
Michael Siani
What’s the skinny: The bench is really quite simple. Baker is there for thump and late game pinch hit RBI situations though he’s limited to 1B and DH defensively that would restrict their ability to deploy him in the field. That would make Michael Helman, the recently acquired utility man from Minnesota, the obvious pick as his versatility along with a Brendan Donovan. He would give the Cardinals two flexible pieces to move around the diamond as needed. Helman is also known as a “true” shortstop and capable centerfielder meaning he can more capably play the positions than a Donovan, Saggese, or Fermin therefor giving him a leg up on the other potential utility options on that the 40-man.
Jose Barrero and Ryan Vilade are two other candidates to fill the 26th man spot on the roster, but as NRI’s they would have to spectacularly outperform all of the 40-man guys and have their underlying metrics support their performance to get that spot. If not, they’ll be valuable AAA depth. Lastly, Michael Siani is someone who I see as true 4th outfielder and someone who will get a decent amount of playing time and the organization has consistently stated it is built on defense and that’s what they’ve traditionally leaned into. Siani serves the team best as a runner off the bench, late game defensive replacement, occasional starter.
Best of the rest:
Victor Scott II and Thomas Saggese are staring up Mount Everest seemingly to try and make this roster given the glut of options at or near the MLB level. That being said the best thing for those players, if not guaranteed starters at the beginning of the season, is to return to AAA and play every day and prepare as the “next man up.” Both have too high of upsides to waste away on the bench at MLB level and, in my opinion, would be mishandling these talents if they did so.
Quinn Matthews, Tink Hence, TK Roby, Cooper Hjerpe, Sem Robberse – This quintet of starters should be the rotation at the AAA level to begin the season and Cardinals fans SHOULD be excited about the near future in terms of what these arms could provide in terms of upside. I know that it’s frustrating that the “reset” is mainly geared towards position players at the MLB level this season but the young pitching in the pipeline isn’t far behind and there’s a realistic path where this team is right back to contention mode next season if a LOT of things go right in their development cycles this season. Health most namely of those things. With new director of strength and conditioning Karl Kochan coming over from the LA Dodgers, I have a lot of optimism that this group will be ready and well prepared to fight for spots mid-season and leading into 2026.
-Thanks for reading.