Dylan Carlson is on his way to the Rays, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (X links) report that Tampa has acquired the former Cardinals top prospect for right-hander Shawn Armstrong. The Angels, Guardians, and Nationals were all linked to Carlson’s market leading up to the deadline, but it was Tampa who sealed the deal for the 25-year-old outfielder.
Trade speculation has swirled around Carlson for years, even when he was on the way up the ladder as one of the top minor leaguers in the St. Louis farm system. Both before and after Carlson made his MLB debut in 2020, there were whispers that the crowded nature of the Cards’ outfield picture might inspire the team to move Carlson to address another need, and it is perhaps now easy to second-guess the Cardinals’ decision to retain a player they once saw as a building block.
Carlson seemingly lived up to that early hype with a third-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2021, but injuries curtailed both his production and his playing time in 2022-23. A left hamstring strain and a thumb sprain hampered him in 2022, and ankle problems (and an eventual ankle surgery) limited Carlson to 76 games in 2023. Playing in 204 of 324 games over the 2022-23 seasons, Carlson hit .230/316/.364 over 743 plate appearances.
The struggles continued into this year, as Carlson has a .198/.275/.240 slash line in 138 PA while in a clear part-time capacity. Still just 25 years old, Carlson will now get a change of scenery with this trade to the Rays and a chance at a fresh start to his Major League career.
The Rays’ flurry of deadline moves has left plenty of opening around the roster, including the left field spot recently occupied by Randy Arozarena. Carlson’s center field defense has been declining along with his offense, but the metrics indicate that he is an average to solid defender in the corner outfield spots. Between that outfield versatility and his switch-hitting, Carlson somewhat fits the Rays’ preferred model of players who can shuffled around to different places on the diamond, though he’ll naturally need to show more at the plate in order to win regular playing time. Carlson is still under arbitration control through the 2026 season, so Tampa Bay has time to evaluate Carlson and decide whether or not he has something to offer as a big leaguer.
Armstrong has a 4.18 ERA over 327 1/3 career innings with Cleveland, Miami, Seattle, Baltimore, and two separate stints with Tampa Bay during his 10 Major League seasons. The righty is a free agent after the season and is therefore a rental pickup for the Cardinals, who will use Armstrong as some extra depth in their bullpen.
A big .370 BABIP has impacted Armstrong’s performance in 2024, as his 5.40 ERA is considerably higher than his 3.86 SIERA. It hasn’t all been plain bad luck, however, as Armstrong’s walk and hard-contact rates are all below average, and his 23.4% strikeout rate is decent but inspiring. Left-handed batters have a .982 OPS against Armstrong this season, while he has continued to pitch well against same-sided hitters, limiting righty-swingers to a .690 OPS.