Also a chance to vote on the #14 prospect
Sem Robberse was not on the initial vote, nor the next vote – the top three in the system is so widely agreed upon that there was only two votes needed – but he was in the third vote for the #4 prospect. Which is my way of saying, he’s been here for a while. If for no other reason than I don’t have to keep coming up with blurbs to write about the same player, I am happy he’s on the list. And just generally, he’ll be somewhere in my top 12, so I’m happy in that sense too. That puts the current list at:
- JJ Wetherholt, SS
- Quinn Mathews, LHP
- Tink Hence, RHP
- Thomas Saggese, 2B/3B
- Jimmy Crooks III, C
- Michael McGreevy, RHP
- Chase Davis, OF
- Leonardo Bernal, C
- Cooper Hjerpe, LHP
- Tekoah Roby, RHP
- Chen-Wei Lin, RHP
- Gordon Graceffo, RHP
- Sem Robberse, RHP
Comparable Player Corner
Today, we’ll be covering a part of the system that, quite frankly, we all got interested in prospects for. That’s right, everyone’s favorite, reliable position: relievers. This is my third year doing this feature and the first time a reliever has placed on the list was #18, and it happened both years.
So the next few comparable player polls will be relievers and I have a very specific strategy. There are three relievers in AAA who I think are pretty directly comparable as prospects. You will be voting on the best of them today. Next week, I have two relievers who are similar in age and level. You will vote on them next week. The winner of today’s poll and the winner of next week’s poll will face off to be the first reliever added to the voting. That will be in time for the #17 prospect. Here are your three relievers today:
Andre Granillo, a 25-year-old drafted in the 14th round of the 2021 draft. He repeated AA to the tune of a 31.9 K%, 13.9 BB%, 1.47 ERA, and 3.73 xFIP. He only lasted 14 appearances before being promoted to AAA, where he had a 27.9 K%, 15.2 BB%, 4.82 ERA, and 5.15 xFIP.
Ryan Loutos, a 26-year-old who went undrafted and signed in 2021. He repeated AAA to the tune of a 25.8 K%, 10 BB%, 3.40 ERA, and 4.27 xFIP. He also made his MLB debut, appearing in 3 games. He didn’t allow a run but didn’t strike out anybody either.
Matt Svanson, a 26-year-old who the Cardinals acquired for Paul DeJong. He played all of 2024 in AA, striking out 20.8% of batters, walking 8.8% and managed a 2.69 ERA and 4.08 xFIP. He was also sent to the AFL, where he struck out 33.3% of batters while walking 4.4% of batters, but he also allowed 3 homers that led to a 5.91 ERA.
New addition
In years past, this player would have already been added to the voting, but VEB readers have not latched onto pitching prospects who haven’t thrown a professional inning, which I can’t say I blame them for. In this case, it’s Brian Holiday, who actually won two comparable player polls to get on the list – against his fellow draftees and against another prospect who will probably be his teammate soon enough – if not immediately.
Ian Bedell, RHP – 25
Stats (AA): 12 G, 64.2 IP, 29.5 K%, 7.1 BB%, 36 GB%, .265 BABIP, 4.73 ERA/4.59 FIP/3.46 xFIP
AAA: 9 G, 43 IP, 16.4 K%, 12.7 BB%, 37.7 GB%, .215 BABIP, 5.02 ERA/7.03 FIP/6.68 xFIP
BP: “The stuff is not overpowering but the arsenal is deep, allowing Bedell to turn over a lineup and stick as a starter.” (From June)
It’s really quite a bummer that the league decided it was a good idea to experiment with an ABS strike zone in AAA, which has made pitching stats virtually useless. It’s never clear whether a pitcher’s walk problems will follow him to the big leagues or is a product of a tough strike zone.
Won-Bin Cho, OF – 21
LYR: #11
Stats (High A): 107 G, 428 PAs, .227/.307/.305, 8.4 BB%, 31.3 K%, .078 ISO, .343 BABIP, 81 wRC+, 74 DRC+
BP: “Cho profiles favorably in the field, a solid corner outfield defender thanks to above-average speed and adequate reads, but is likely stretched in center field.”
My opinion of a prospect is sometimes shaped by how fans perceive that prospect. If I feel fans are unreasonably high on a prospect, I might speak a little bit more harshly on that prospect. But if fans seem low on a prospect, I might be a bigger supporter. I’m getting the sense that Cho is going to go from overrated as a prospect to underrated.
Brian Holiday, 22 – RHP
Stats (College): 16 GS, 113 IP, 28.6 K%, 4.2 BB%, .089 WHIP, 2.95 ERA
BP: “Because he’s short—listed at 5-foot-11—and has visual effort in his motion, he’s going to carry a future reliever tag until he doesn’t, but if the Cardinals are truly improving on pitcher development, Holiday has the type of arsenal they should start to see more successful outcomes with.”
Holiday is your classic control guy pick, which is to say that his excellent control is his best attribute. Sometimes, that can mean that you never strike out enough guys to be successful, but sometimes it means you’re so good at locating, that you craft a career out of this thing.
Travis Honeyman, OF – 23
LYR: #20
Stats (Low A): 14 G, 60 PAs, .321/.367/.446, 5 BB%, 13 K%, .125 ISO, .375 BABIP, 133 wRC+
BP: Honeyman has a punchy little line-drive oriented swing, a tight barrel loop that generates explosive impact out in front of the plate. He’s geared to turn and burn, sending most of his contact to the pull side.
Honeyman is a position player who has the prospect profile of a pitcher. Theoretically, a position player with his injury history isn’t as risky as a pitcher would be. Remember Tommy Pham, who has had a weirdly healthy MLB career given his minor league injury history. But also if he is never actually on the field, it’s kind of hard for him to advance!
Matt Koperniak, OF – 27
LYR: Unranked
Stats (AAA): 513 PAs, .309/.370/.512, 8.4 BB%, 18.7 K%, .203 ISO, .351 BABIP, 128 wRC+, 116 DRC+
BP: I’m going to be real. I don’t think BP has written a single word about him. And I mean ever.
Koperniak has a better track at the MLB than most of the prospects who will fall on the top 20. At least, as it pertains to 2025 specifically. Not sure that statement can be said more generally, although half the battle is just getting to the majors and he’s as well-positioned as anyone.
Yairo Padilla, SS – 18
LYR: Unranked
Stats (DSL): 162 PAs, .287/.391/.404, 10.5 BB%, 17.9 K%, .118 ISO, .355 BABIP, 121 wRC+
BP: “Padilla is an eye scouting marvel: a tall, skinny, classically projectable 17-year-old who takes a smooth swing from both sides of the plate. If you believe in the old ways of scouting even a little bit, you’re liable to see a future star here.”
Padilla is an exciting prospect, because he is a very traditional type of prospect. He would be considered a prospect in 1982, when scouting was nearly the entire way to judge a prospect. But he is also very young and definitely needs to add strength as his exit velocity numbers were low in comparison to similar prospects his age.
Max Rajcic, RHP – 23
LYR: #12
Stats (AA): 25 G, 131 IP, 23.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 39.2 GB%, .314 BABIP, 4.33 ERA/4.41 FIP/4.03 xFIP/4.59 DRA
BP: “He has a very pretty looking but humpy curveball, though his changeup has actually taken a step forward to claim the title of his best offspeed offering (to go along with various flavors of slider).”
I’ll have to remind people that the offensive environment at both AA and AAA is quite offense-friendly, which I point out because his AA numbers are above average. I know they don’t look above average, but they are. And it’s not like they are barely above average either. The average ERA in the International League was 4.83.
Rainiel Rodriguez, C – 18
LYR: Not in organization
Stats (DSL): 41 G, 184 PAs, .345/.462/.683, 16.3 BB%, 13.6 K%, .338 ISO, .345 BABIP, 186 wRC+
BP: “He hits the ball pretty hard for his age, makes enough contact, controls the zone well, and might stick behind the dish.”
I think Rodriguez is understandably being hurt by both Jonathan Mejia and Malcolm Nunez absolutely tanking in the year after their big breakout year in the DSL. Not necessarily a commentary on how he’ll be voted now, but performing well in rookie league in the US would probably make him into a legitimate prospect. (I assume there are no plans to send him to Low A)
Darlin Saladin, RHP – 22
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Low A): 11 G, 60 IP, 26.8 K%, 7.4 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .287 BABIP, 1.95 ERA/2.61 FIP/3.29 xFIP/3.16 DRA
High A: 12 G, 63 IP, 27.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 42.8 GB%, 42.8 GB%, .344 BABIP, 3.43 ERA/2.73 FIP/3.29 xFIP/4.00 DRA
BP: “Saladin is another low-VAA fastball oddity king; you can really see the Cardinals trending hard in this direction over the past few years. After three years mostly bopping around the complex, he showed up in A-ball this year and torched both levels working primarily off a low-to-mid-90s heater from a flat angle.”
If I can predict the future for a moment. Saladin will make this list soon and he will probably end up making AA at some point this upcoming season and he’ll probably have unimpressive, but nonetheless fine numbers at AA, and he will probably fall from whatever place he ends up finishing now. Although admittedly, it depends on how long he’s at AA, 4 starts will probably not damper enthusiasm, 15-20 starts would.
Zack Showalter, RHP – 21
LYR: #21 (He was close to winning 20th vote)
Stats (Low A): 24 G, 34.1. IP, 38.6 K%, 11.8 BB%, 43.9 GB%, .373 BABIP, 2.62 ERA/2.48 FIP/3.02 xFIP
BP: “His low-90s, sub-4 VAA fastball out of an extremely funky delivery was absurdly dominant against Low-A hitters, and he also weaponized a sweeper against same-side batters for a very tough look.”
Presumably, Zach Showalter will make the transition into a more obvious starter role even if his innings and innings per appearance don’t necessarily reflect a true starter. He has had injury problems and they are working on ramping up innings, and we’ll just have to hope he’s as dominant in High A as he was in Low A.