Welcome home for the home team. Time to play in the Division.
Intro
This is my first series preview, so will have to work out the style and substance as I go. I’m not going to try to predict outcomes. I would be wrong 90% of the time and I don’t like doing that. I will stick with what I know (or think I know).
The Cardinals return home from a rough road trip. A 1-6 record with multiple games lost in the last AB. These late April mini-collapses are becoming an unwelcome feature of the Oli Marmol era.
The 10-15 Cardinals welcome in the 13-13 Brewers, who continue to defy 3rd party talent assessments, talent defections and the injury bug to remain competitive. More background on that mysterious phenomenon can be found here. Willy who? The Brewers are coming in off a peculiar one city, 4 game road trip to San Fran, with no travel day in between series. It was a tough, hard fought series of close games, which the Giants took 3 of 4. The last game was a particularly tough loss, with a blown save and 2 critical defensive miscues contributing. The series was rough enough that it inspired their manager to hold a closed door meeting with the team after yesterday’s unsightly loss. That certainly didn’t help their travel itinerary getting to St. Louis, likely early this morning.
The Pitching Match-ups
The Brewers appear to be in a modified 6-man rotation similar to the Cardinals. They’ve already had 9 guys make starts for them. With their injuries, it’s been difficult to discern their actual rotation, so I’m guessing a bit here. They could choose to throw Quintana on Sunday and displace one of the rookies. They have Monday off.
The Brewers are being naturally coy about it. I guess if you don’t know which pitcher to load into Trajekt, it gets harder to prepare. Will update when news becomes available, which I’d guess will be just before game start.
Friday – Liberatore vs Patrick @ 7:15p (Central)
Saturday – Gray vs Priester @ 1:15p
Sunday – Fedde vs Quintana @ 1:15p
Quick peak at the Brewers pitching
Of course, I look at the Brewers projected starters and ask “Who?”. Which immediately sends shivers down my spine as I experience PTSD effects from prior episodes of watching Cardinal hitters flail helplessly at pitchers no one even knows. Of course, this is negative bias. I can also suspect a Trajekt bias, too. It would suffer from small sample size distortions as it tries to simulate pitch actions, no?
Patrick is 26-year-old rookie RHP, acquired from Oakland in late 2023. He is not on the Brewers top 30 prospect list, even though he is eligible. I found that weird. Ran high ERAs in the minors, has 5 games MLB experience, with a 2.11 ERA. Of course! The Brewer pitching lab strikes again. Very good rising action on an average-ish FB velo. Will throw hard stuff about 80% of his pitches. Mediocre breaking pitches.
Priester is a 24 y/o RHP and was just acquired from the Red Sox earlier this month, ostensibly as an emergency fill-in for all their pitching injuries. He appears to be a heavy sinker guy. With parts of 3 seasons data, he shows around 90th percentile in GB rate. A perfect fit for Milwaukie’s system. Here is his prospect bio. He is the most highly thought of out of these three young pitchers, ranking #4 in Pittsburgh’s prospect list in 2023 before being moved to Boston (last summer) and then Milwaukie (this spring). 55 FV, so on the same level as Hence or Mathews. Not a high K guy, but he comes in with a 1.93 ERA in 3 starts this year.
In re: Priester, I find it fascinating that the Red Sox traded away a young, controllable SP. In a serious case of baseball arbitrage, this would be what I call a kindred special. Trade prospect#1 for prospect#2 (Priester) and then flip said prospect#2 for another prospect#3 PLUS a 33rd overall pick (Comp A), which will result in prospect#4. They turned one prospect into two in 9 months. Not to be confused with having a baby, talent accumulation is what they call that. Do that enough and the odds swing in your favor. Except in this case, the Brewers had it done to them, not by them. Funny how short-term needs can sideline the best long-term plan, huh?
Jose Quintana, the ageless lefty, needs no introduction. As I write this, I’m guessing he pitches Sunday, since he is LHP, which is Cardinal’s kryptonite and that would be a classic Brewers play.
Indeed, the Brewers are doing just that. Quintana in for Sunday, Henderson will not pitch this series. I will include his bio below since I wrote it anticipating he might get Saturday’s game.
Henderson, a RHP, is the Brewers#12 prospect, which tells us … not much. 45 FV. For a quick reference, the Cardinals #11-13 prospects are all pitchers. Roby, Hjerpe, Lin. Roby has a higher FV. A #12 prospect is the kind of guy with intriguing stuff who is close, but not that close to the majors (unless your team has a ton of injuries, which the Brewers do). You can read his prospect bio here. Incomplete prospect, a bit on the young side (23, and not a phenom). Stop me if you’ve heard this before. He sports a fastball and change heavy arsenal, needs a third pitch to succeed as starter. Book him for 6 IP, 3 hit, 9 K’s, 1 ER. That’s what he did against the Cubs in his MLB debut last Sunday.
A peak at the Brewer offense
The Brewers bring a middle of the road offense. They have a few guys (Chourio, Turang, Frelick, Contreras). Yelich has struggled. The bottom on their line=up is not strong with Durbin and Ortiz both struggling. Brewers feature excellent base running. They are among the league leaders in BsR with 4 (more than the Cardinals will accumulate all season) and look for them to run at every opportunity.
Cardinal updates
Getting Winn back in the lineup should help both the offense and defense.
About the bullpen…