ST. LOUIS – An up-and-down season for Sonny Gray has seen more setbacks than strides in recent weeks.
The presumed leader of the Cardinals rotation is navigating through troubles with the home-run ball and pitch efficiency, unfortunately at a time where St. Louis’ postseason hopes seem to be fading.
Gray allowed three home runs in Monday’s loss to the Cincinnati Reds. He surrendered a season-worst six earned runs, working just five innings on 85 pitches.
With the three round-trippers, Gray has given up 17 home runs this year, which now more than doubles the total he had in the regular season last year (eight) with the Minnesota Twins. Gray has given up a home run in each of his last three starts and nine over his last five outings.
In recent seasons, the 12-year MLB veteran has taken pride in preventing the home-run ball, leading all qualified MLB starters with a 0.4 HR/9IP clip last year.
“I just got to find a way to keep the ball in the park,” said Gray after Monday’s start via Bally Sports Midwest. “I don’t know what that is yet, but if you look at it, I feel like [in this year’s] games, I have given up the three-run homer a lot more than I’m used to doing. I got to find a way to keep the ball in the ballpark. Everything else is fine. It’s just I’m just giving up the big homer, it feels like, on a semi-consistent basis.”
Pitch efficiency, though perhaps a little less obviously than the home runs, has also been an issue for Gray, specifically since flirting with a no-hitter against the San Francisco Giants on June 23, carrying a bid for history into the seventh inning.
Here’s a closer look at some notable trends…
| Pitches (Total) | Innings Pitched | Starts | Pitches (Per Game) | Innings (Per Game) | Pitches (Per Inning) | |
| No-hit bid and before (June 23) | 1,177 | 83.1 | 14 | 84.07 | 5.95 | 14.13 |
| After no-hit bid (Since June 23) | 743 | 47.1 | 8 | 92.88 | 5.88 | 15.79 |
Gray’s pitch count has increased around 10 pitches per game deeper into the season, which isn’t too surprising given he was recovering from a hamstring strain in the early weeks of the 2024 campaign.
What’s more concerning, however, is the return on investment. Gray hasn’t been able to work deeper into game post-no-hit bid compared to his pre-no-hit-bid. His pitches per inning rate has nearly increased by two.
According to the Society for American Baseball Research, pitchers who average close to around 14 pitches per inning are most likely to be effective for the long haul of a season. Higher pitch counts are usually a sign of working deeper into counts and in high-profile game situations more often than with ease.
Gray seems self-aware of his setbacks, vowing for improvement as recently as July 26 against the Washington Nationals, when he gave up five runs over five innings.
“I know what I need to do, and I know what I have to do to be a great pitcher,” said Gray via Bally Sports Midwest after the July 26 start. “It takes a lot of effort and a lot of energy, but I’ll commit to doing it again.”
The Cardinals head into Tuesday’s matchup with the Reds just one game above .500 (60-59). They are 2.5 games back of a National League Wild Card spot and 7.5 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central lead.
Gray, if healthy, could see around seven or eight more starts on normal rest for the rest of the 2024 regular season.