The Cardinals AFL Choices

The Cardinals are sending 8 players to the Arizona Fall League.

With the minor league season now officially ended, teams have begun to announce which prospects they are sending to the Arizona Fall League, which begins play on October 7th. The St. Louis Cardinals are sending something of a mixed bag of minor leaguers, with only 2 ranking among the teams top prospects, at least according to public rankings.

And, frankly, when the list of names was announced, I was more than a bit surprised considering some of the names aren’t exactly promising prospects, at least in my eyes (though I recognize that others, and the organization itself, may have different evaluations).

Here is the list of players the Cardinals are sending to Arizona this fall:

What I want to do today is dive into each player’s profile a little bit and give some suggestions as to why they might have been chosen to go to Arizona, what they mightbe working on, or who I would have preferred to see instead.

While I’m still working on my updated prospect ranking, I’ll cover the players in the order I have them ranked currently. So let’s get to it.

Thomas Saggese

Thomas Saggese was an interesting choice because he is a prospect who has already reached the majors, although he didn’t play particularly well in his brief exposure to the highest level.

He actually put a positive fWAR (0.2) despite having a wRC+ of just 67 and that was entirely due to him playing excellent defense in his 14 game major league sample. While that was certainly a huge positive for Saggese, his bat was really his calling card in the minors and that is the part of his game that looked overmatched at the major league level.

The reason is simple too – his swing decisions were terrible.

That’s not something that was unexpected either. In fact, I wrote about my concern with that exact aspect of his game when he was first promoted to the majors. It’s Saggese’s biggest flaw as a hitter.

Take all these numbers with a grain of salt considering the tiny sample size of 43 plate appearances but Saggese had a chase rate of 43.5% (MLB average is 28.5%) at the major league level while swinging at a below average rate of pitches in the zone.

So basically he was aggressive when he should have been passive and passive when he should have been aggressive.

So, the reason why he’s going to Arizona seems fairly simple to me – to work on his swing decisions.

Saggese can be a good hitter because he excels at the exact part of hitting a baseball that is so difficult to do – finding the sweet spot and pulling the ball in the air consistently. His ability to hit the ball at the optimal lauch angles and in the optimal direction for doing damage is incredible and is allows his mediocre raw power to really play up in games.

To maximize his profile, though, he will need to make better swing decisions and this is why I was such a big fan of him getting promoted to the majors at the end of the season. It gave him the opportunity to see MLB-caliber pitching and learn exactly what he’ll need to work on in order to do damage at the level.

Now he gets the chance to make immediate improvements in the AFL so I do like this decision to send him to Arizona quite a bit.

Leonardo Bernal

Leonardo Bernal is another player that absolutely deserves a chance to shine in the Arizona Fall League. He is probably the top catching prospect in the system, depending on how high you are on Jimmy Crooks, who probably gave Bernal some competition for this spot.

It would have been great to see Crooks continue his season after putting up a ridiculous 156 wRC+ in Double-A but there is only so much playing time to go around for catchers and as Crooks and Bernal would have been on the same AFL team (and other teams also can send a catcher), the team couldn’t send both.

Bernal is an excellent prospect, though, and one who could really get a lot out of this experience. He’s still extremely young as he has yet to turn 21 but that didn’t stop him from producing at a rate 20% better than the league average in the High-A Midwest League and it didn’t stop him from reaching Double-A by the end of the year.

The catcher has a strong all around profile with a bit of pop in his bat, good bat-to-ball skills, solid plate discipline and an arm that threw out 34% of base stealers this years. Seeing as how he’s among the system’s top prospects and is super young, this is simply a chance for him to build on his already successful season and gain some exposure against a higher level of competition.

Ixan Henderson

Henderson is a bit of an underrated prospect in the system who hasn’t gotten a ton of attention from national prospect publications but looks like a potential major league arm to me. He has a deceptive left-handed release from a lower than normal slot and brings a solid mix of pitches and solid control.

He really leaned on his fastball this year, throwing both a sinker and a four-seamer with the sinker leading the way but he also throws a changeup, a curveball, and a slider.

His sinker actually isn’t a traditional sinker at all as it gets 16 inches of riding life on average from a 5.6 ft release to go with nearly 12 inches of arm side run. That combination allowed the pitch to miss bats at a 30% rate in Single-A despite the pitch sitting just 92 mph.

The secondary offerings are all various degrees of solid though it’s worth mentioning that Henderson really drops his arm slot when he throws his slider. That could be a bit of a tip for hitters as Henderson ascends the ladder though it does help the pitch profile a bit differently.

Overall, though, his stuff is solid but would really benefit from a velocity boost which is why he may profile best as a reliever at the highest level. Still, though, he is an intriguing prospect, especially for someone who was an 8th round pick, and this is a good chance for him to get some exposure to higher level hitters as he did see his strikeout rate dip after a promotion to High-A.

I was a bit surprised to see Henderson get sent to the AFL but I do like the decision.

Matt Svanson

Matt Svanson is probably the last player on this list that I was a fan of sending to the AFL. His numbers actually took a bit of a step back this year but I like him quite a bit as a relief-only prospect.

He’s pretty much a two-pitch pitcher with his sinker/slider combo but he has used those pitches quite effectively to miss bats and keep the ball on the ground. You’ll notice from his stats that he took a step back in both of those departments this season while also walking more hitters but as he is already 25 years old and will be 26 by the start of next season, the AFL gives him an opportunity to keep his career moving a little bit.

A strong performance could give him a springboard heading into next season and really put his name on the map as a potential bullpen reinforcement for the 2025 season.

The other factor here is the Rule 5 draft as Svanson will be eligible to be selected for the first time this offseason. Svanson’s Arizona Fall League stint is an opportunity for him to prove himself and earn a 40-man roster spot.

Brycen Mautz

I will freely admit to being the low man on Mautz but I really don’t like the decision to send him to the Arizona Fall League this year. His sinker and slider have both performed well despite not measuring well in stuff metrics but his changeup is simply not a good pitch and has not developed a ton since his college days.

Mautz has also toyed with a curveball to try and find a viable third pith but that’s more of a get-me-over pitch than an actual quality third offering. So I’m really not high on Mautz as a prospect and I think he’s miscast as a starter. I totally understand leaving him in the rotation when he is developing but he looks more like a two-pitch lefty reliever to me and I do wonder if that’s the kind of role he will have in the fall league, especially since he has already thrown 121 innings this year.

Beyond the lack of a true third pitch, Mautz also had pretty extreme lefty/righty splits this year (.890 OPS vs RHBs, .568 OPS vs LHBs) and given the solid enough bat-missing abilities of his sinker/slider combo, it seems like Mautz could progress through the system as a lefty-oriented reliever but isn’t likely to have high-level success in the rotation.

I’m not a huge fan of sending Mautz to the fall league this year considering how many innings he has already thrown but also because I think there are more interesting and more promising arms that should have gotten an opportunity and because I hate saying that without providing actual names that I would have considered, I will give a few names.

Tekoah Roby and Ian Bedell are two names who come to mind here who dealt with injuries late in the season but worked their way back for a few appearances before the end of the season. I’m surprised that they weren’t simply shut down at the end of the year if they’re not going to Arizona.

I would have also thought about pitching prospects that are more interesting starters aor higher level relievers. Darlin Saladin, Sem Robberse or Jack Ralston are players that come to mind here.

Nathan Church

Nathan Church was a bit of a pop-up prospect in the first month of the minor league season as he batted .349 through his first 100 plate appearances but then cooled off and finished the year with a wRC+ of exactly 100.

Church is at least interesting as a prospect because he makes so much contact and almost never strikes out but he doesn’t have a whole lot of pop in his bat and has a somewhat aggressive approach at the plate. If he came into some more power then he would be a much more interesting prospect but he’s at least a guy with a strong hit tool and that’s always a valuable tool to have.

He also has some speed, stealing 24 bases this year, can play all 3 outfield spots, and has a strong arm, tallying 12 outfield assists this year and 9 last year.

That’s a fun little blend of tools and while Church isn’t the loudest prospect it’s easy to see what makes him appealing.

The Cardinals don’t have a ton of upper level outfield talent so it’s not too hard to see why Church was chosen, though one could make a case for Matt Koperniak. Personally, I’m fine with Church being a Cardinals representative but I would have been intrigued to see Chase Davis get to continue his season after starting slow in Palm Beach but then tweaking his swing and earning his way to Springfield by the end of the year.

Alex Cornwell

Alex Cornwell didn’t have the best season this year and while I’m not super high on Cornwell overall I do think he’s consistently underrated in this system. He’s not a huge bat misser but he throws a ton of strikes and keeps the ball on the ground, so you can probably see how the Cardinals value him enough to send him to the AFL.

His primary fastball is a sinking four-seamer that gets just 8 inches of induced vertical break and only 4 inches of arm side run on average but can flirt with 0 at times. That kind of sinking action and occasional cutting life has led to plenty of ground balls and generally allows the pitch to manage contact effectively. It’s something of an Andre Pallante-lite kind of fastball with it’s high release, movement profile, and ability to keep the ball on the ground.

His cutter and curveball (often labeled as a slider) are his go-to secondaries with the curveball being thrown at 80 mph with some 12-6ish shape and the cutter being thrown at 88 mph with 3 inches of cut. Neither are tremendous offerings but they’re at least passable. He’ll also mix in a changeup with more riding life than his fastball (but a lot more running life) and a sinker.

Again, this isn’t a tremendous profile but for someone who can keep the ball in the zone and on the ground, it makes him someone who might have an MLB debut in his future.

The Arizona Fall League offers him a chance to show more than he did in the minors this year and also gives the Cardinals a chance to evaluate him even further leading up to the Rule 5 draft, which he will be eligible for.

I wouldn’t expect Cornwell to get a spot on the 40-man but I also wouldn’t expect Cornwell to get an AFL assignment so I do think there’s a chance that the Cardinals are legitimately considering protecting him this winter.

Trent Baker

As I’ve mentioned, I’m not a huge fan of some of the AFL decisions the Cardinals made this year and this is another one that I didn’t love. I listed a bunch of pitchers earlier that I would have rather seen than Mautz and that same list applies here.

Baker just isn’t all that interesting of a prospect, especially as one who legitimately struggled as a 25-year-old in Double-A.

He’s primarily a sinker/changeup pitcher who will mix in a slider with only slight glove side breaking action. His sinker is far and away his most used pitch and has riding and running life to it. His changeup, which is clearly his go-to secondary, also has strong running life and decent depth to it. The slider just isn’t all that impressive but will sit in the mid-80s instead of the low 80s which does help it some.

Baker’s command took a bit of a step back this year, although he did strike out hitters at a higher rate, so the Cardinals could be looking to give him some extra innings this year to see if he can find some of the command that he showed last year.

I’m not in love with the stuff (although it could be interesting in a bullpen role if he could sit 95) but Baker has shown really strong control in the past and while he is fly ball prone, he has shown an ability to keep the ball in the yard.

I would have liked to see a more interesting prospect in this spot but Baker can certainly use this opportunity this fall. He too is Rule 5 eligible this offseason which does add an extra wrinkle to his AFL season.

Final Thoughts

The Cardinals have a pair of top prospects heading to the AFL this year and it will be fun to track their results and see if they can perform against other top prospects in the case of Bernal or show improved swing decisions in the case of Saggese.

The other 6 players being sent are more mid to lower tier prospects which is a little disappointing as there are some other players I would have rather seen get the opportunity to continue playing.

Still, there is plenty of intrigue with this AFL season as good performances could be even more notable for these mid to lower tier prospects. Some of the Cardinals Rule 5 roster decisions could also be tied to this year’s AFL season and that is another reason to watch.

Thanks for reading.