It seems to be something about home sickness, maybe? Or maybe April stats are a mirage.
The 2025 Cardinals have had themselves some trouble on the road. The road can be a dangerous place, with random events, loss of sleep, and gas station food. There can even be stretches with no gasoline, car wrecks, road rage, and the aforementioned Random Events which can happen at any time when away from home. Adventure is fun, until it isn’t.
Well for the 2025 Cardinals, what is it that makes the road a losing place? Sure it’s a dangerous but these guys are most presumably Well Taken Care Of. What is causing the Cardinals to lose baseball games while traveling? I mean, many of these guys don’t even live in St Louis.
When using away splits on Cardinals team offense, they are bottom third of MLB. But still better than a number of teams. Which members of the Cardinals offense aren’t hitting on the road? Lars Nootbaar is one of the worst on the road, along with Luken Baker. Until the April 21st Braves game, Nolan Gorman was a black hole on offense, while on the road. Contreras, Page, and Scott II also cannot hit on the road this year. Very bad. The worst away split has been Jordan Walker though.
Which Cardinals CAN hit on the road so far? Brendan Donovan and Thomas Saggese actually like hitting while traveling. A LOT. (And before Winn got hurt, he was hitting well on the road). editor’s note: written before April 22
But the hitting seems like it could actually be worse for road splits. The pitching must be insanely awful right?
Yes… the Cardinals are last place in ERA as a pitching staff in MLB, while away from home. Their away split isn’t nearly so bad by FIP and xFIP, but it’s still bottom third like the hitting is. Mikolas, King, Fedde, and Pallante are all getting eaten by the wolves while roaming. Liberatore will be fine once his ERA calms down (on the road). Matz, Gray, and especially Leahy fair well whilst traveling.
Now, when looking at home stats, the Cardinals pitching staff is really damn good! There’s no question. There is something weird about when the Cardinals travel this year, so far. Unsettling! Ok, a big part of the Cardinals home pitching success is BABIP based. So everything should regress to the mean eventually. It all comes out in the wash right?
I suspect this pitching staff is rather mediocre, and that eventually they will get worse at home and better on the road. So eventually they will be middle of the road, where they probably belong. It’s a long season, and there’s plenty of time for freaky deaky streaks to continue happening. Luckily the streak ended! The Cardinals whooped Atlanta’s butt tonight.
Some of the worst road teams of all time only won 13 games all season while on the road, dating way back. The 2021 Rockies were also really bad on the road. What other teams this year have been having a tough time away from home? Well, the Braves actually. The White Sox. Rockies of course. The Pirates… and Rays (who are winless on the road but have been playing mostly at home so far).
Tonight the Cardinals broke out of their slump and cascaded to victory. The Cardinals offense all the sudden scored 10 runs! On 12 hits to the Braves 8. Lars Nootbaar hit his 4th home run tonight, Pallante was not good tonight and the Braves Matt Olson also hit his 4th home run. Masyn Winn returned and contributed to the Cardinals win and knocked in a run.
The big hit of the game last night came from Nolan Gorman, who has been on the fence that is between a starter and a bench player so far. Thank goodness he got to play and was able to win this game with a 3 run double. Granted Gorman was only 1 for 5 but he is capable of getting the big hits we so desperately need at times. Willson Contreras has shown signs of life as well with a 2 for 4 night with 2 walks!
Austin Riley has been super annoying this series. 3 for 4 with a walk! This guy kills us lately.
Burleson my other pet peeve was 2 for 5, not so bad. He scored twice.
But let’s not forget: Victor Scott II was 3 for 4 with a walk! What a night. As much as it is surface level that Nolan Gorman provided the difference making RBI, Victor Scott II actually won the WPA award for hitters tonight with his hitting performance. And by WPA, somehow Jordan Walker’s two timely walks were worth nearly as much as Nolan Gorman’s RBIs.
Steven Matz was also a huge influence on the Cardinals 10-4 victory, coming out of the bullpen to ensure a Cardinals win. It seems he is the perfect pitching role player this year. Personally, I would like to see him pitch in the rotation.
The big losers of last night’s game were Montero, Pallante, and especially De Los Santos at -.415 WPA. I can’t decide between Victor Scott II and Nolan Gorman as Start of the Game. Both deserve to be starters at this point, in my opinion.
The strike zone tonight looked constricted again, by the way.
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