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The Cardinals Must Move On from Former MVP

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While the St. Louis Cardinals have rebounded from a slow start this year, veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has continued to have his worst offensive season. Due to his struggles, age, and expiring contract, many feel the Cardinals must move on from the former MVP after the season.

However, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently reported that the team has an interest in retaining Goldschmidt for 2025. Goold mentions that talks regarding a potential return will likely start after the season. He also mentions that the team could treat Goldschmidt similarly to how they handled Adam Wainwright late in his career.

Perhaps that’s not the most surprising development considering the organization’s player-friendly reputation. And while Goldschmidt established himself with the Arizona Diamondbacks, his success in St. Louis likely earned him a prominent place in the franchise’s history.

In his six seasons with the Cardinals (including 2024), Goldschmidt has posted a .844 OPS (130 OPS+) with 827 hits and 148 homers. His accolades during this time include a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, All-Star nomination, and the 2022 MVP Award.

The Cardinals Must Move On from Paul Goldschmidt This Offseason

Unfortunately, it seems like the 37-year-old is already well into his decline. This year, Goldschmidt has hit just .228/.288/.384 (87 OPS+) with 17 homers and a 28.3 percent strikeout rate. Additionally, his Defensive Runs Saved put him just above league average, while his Outs Above Average rank as below average.

On the bright side, metrics indicate that Goldschmidt has made solid contact, which could indicate poor luck and better production in the future. Plus, he is a great clubhouse presence who will likely earn less than his current $26 million salary in 2025.

There is some logic to the Cardinals wanting to bring Goldschmidt and his elite reputation back. However, part of the team’s struggles this year is poor offense against left-handed pitching. Struggles from expensive and aging veterans Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have played a big role in this.

Relying on a rebound performance from a late-30s first baseman is a poor roster-building strategy. This is especially true when the team has plenty of quality in-house replacements, as the Cardinals do.

The best organizations know when to move on from players. In order to get back to being a real National League force, the St. Louis leadership must make tough, innovative decisions this winter. Moving on from Goldschmidt must be the first move for the Cardinals.

Replacements

Alec Burleson

Perhaps the first option to replace Goldschmidt is Alec Burleson. The former top prospect and second-round pick is having a breakout offensive season. Burleson has hit .278/.313/.463 (114 OPS+) with 19 homers and 15 doubles.

His production also comes with Strikeout and Squared-Up percentages that each rank amongst the best in the league. He has not walked much, but he doesn’t whiff and has decent access to his power. At just 25, Burleson is clearly developing and trending upwards.

Burleson has predominantly played outfield and DH this season. However, he has seen limited time at first base this year (76 innings) and throughout his big league career (209 1/3 innings). Though the sample is the smallest, defensive metrics view his defense at first much more favorably than in the outfield.

Moving Burleson to first base in 2025 could strengthen the lineup while improving run prevention via outfield defense. Plus, the Cardinals could take advantage of the financial benefits of playing Burleson and his less than $1 million salary.

Luken Baker

Also on the 40-man roster is another former second-round pick, Luken Baker. Baker is a big slugger who struggled mightily in his first big-league appearance last year. In 33 games, the 27-year-old produced a 72 OPS+ with two homers and a strikeout rate of 31.3 percent.

This season, Baker has hit .237 with a .890 OPS in 98 Triple-A games. His strikeout rate is just above 23 percent (closer to the MLB average) while his walk rate is just under 14 percent. However, the Cardinals want to win next season and will likely prefer a proven option.

It doesn’t seem that the organization views Baker as anything more than organizational depth. It’s more likely that Baker loses his 40-man roster spot this winter than having a starting role on the 2025 Cardinals.

Re-Allocating Goldschmidt’s Salary In The Offseason

If the Cardinals move on from Goldschmidt, they could decide to reallocate his $26 million salary this winter. One option could be to spend that money on a younger first baseman. Pete Alonso might be the only free agent who could command close to (or more than) $26 million annually.

Cheaper but still solid options include Christian Walker. Walker replaced Goldschmidt in Arizona and could do the same in St. Louis. He’s not as good of an overall hitter as prime Goldschmidt. But, he possesses more power and might have the best glove among the available options.

Rhys Hoskins represents another free-agent option. Hoskins has struggled defensively throughout his career, but consistently takes quality at-bats. He’s hit for decent power in his career, including in 2024. However, he’s produced a 108 OPS+ this season (a would-be career low) and has the worst walk rates in his career. That said, perhaps the Cardinals project better production from him one more year removed from serious knee surgery.

The Cardinals could also look to spread money around and platoon players. Burleson has struggled against southpaws this year but has mashed righties. There is logic to signing someone like Wilmer Flores and platooning him with Burleson at first. This would likely be a cost-effective option for 2025 and could allow the Cardinals to sign high-upside arms.

It’s doubtful that St. Louis would ever spend big on someone like Corbin Burnes. However, high upside arms on shorter deals, like Walker Buehler, Nathan Eovaldi, or Sean Manaea could go a long way in elevating the team’s potential. It would especially make the team better than sticking with Goldschmidt solely out of loyalty.

 

Photo Credit: © Jeff Le-USA TODAY Sports

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