The season is almost over.
The St. Louis Cardinals host the first place Cleveland Guardians for this weekend’s series. This is a series of two teams at two different trajectories: the Guardians are headed to the postseason with an 8.9% chance to win the World Series, while the Cardinals have been all but eliminated.
On offense the Guardians are 16th in the league in team wRC+ with 100. They are led by the 9th most valuable player in baseball, José Ramírez. He is slashing .271/.329/.510 with a 132 wRC+ and 35 home runs.
On Friday Ben Lively takes the mound for the Guardians. In 2024 he has a 3.87 ERA and 4.71 FIP. He throws a four seamer, sinker, sweeper, changeup, and a curveball. Per run value, his sinker is his best pitch.
Matthew Boyd will make his eighth start of the season on Saturday. He has a 2.52 ERA and 3.03 FIP with a 27.2 K rate against a 6.8% walk rate. He throws a four seamer, changeup, slider, and sinker. His four seamer and slider have been very effective pitches in the 35 innings he has pitched. His slider has a 42.2% Wiff rate and a 44.4% K rate.
Second-year pitcher Gavin Williams rounds out the starters on Sunday. He has a 5.12 ERA and 3.71 FIP. He throws a four seamer over 50% of the time and mixes in a curveball, cutter, and slider. In 2023 his fastball and slider were strong pitches, but this season this hasn’t been the case, despite his four seamer increasing in velocity from an average of 95.7 mph to 96.8 mph.
And that’s what the Cardinals are looking at for their third to last series of the season. The Guardians on paper are not a super remarkable-looking team, but they have been able to avoid glaring weaknesses and string together wins to earn a playoff berth.
Matchups:
Friday, September 20 at 7:15 pm CT: Ben Lively vs. Kyle Gibson
Saturday, September 21 at 6:15 pm CT: Matthew Boyd vs. Miles Mikolas
Sunday, September 22 at 1:15 pm CT: Gavin Williams vs. Andre Pallante