A look at where we are
This is the period of time where there’s not much to theorize – it’s too early – and there’s not much to recap – it’s all been said. But I am going to write about the bullpen today. The state of it in fact. I thought of the idea when the season was winding down, but pushed it off because it wasn’t timely and I could write it at any time. This is that any time.
The 2024 bullpen could be called a top 10 unit – they were 7th in ERA, 8th in FIP, and 10 in xFIP. They were tied for the 2nd most blown saves as a unit (28), which sounds like a lot, except they had the most chances to blow a “save” in baseball and 10th place has just two less blown saves than the Cardinals. They were 4th in holds (103) and 1st in saves (55), so they held the door shut quite a bit.
Oddly, the team most similar to the Cards’ bullpen is the Dodgers. They had 27 blown saves, were one of six teams with 100+ holds, and had 50 saves. There were definitely better bullpens, but this is pretty easily duplicating that 2023 season if the bullpen was bad. They had many opportunities to break, and mostly didn’t.
Departing
Andrew Kittredge
Stats: 74 G, 72 IP, 23.3 K%, 7 BB%, 45.2 GB%, .263 BABIP, 2.80 ERA/3.96 FIP/3.64 xFIP
Weird pitcher, weird season. This season actually reflects his career quite nicely. Has a homer problem, so his fWAR never looks impressive. But despite that, his ERA tends to be much better than either his FIP or xFIP. His RA9 WAR is 2 wins better in his career than fWAR and quite a bit of that is this year, with 1.5 RA9 WAR and 0.3 fWAR.
Also odd season. I remember him being good in the 1st half and not so great in the 2nd half, but clearly I can’t trust my subjective opinion. He was great in April, very bad in May, solid for the next three months with not particularly impressive wOBA againsts and then pretty dominant in the last month. He actually had a .315 wOBA against and 3.53 ERA for the first half, .247 wOBA and 1.65 ERA for the 2nd half. Is this blowing anybody else’s mind?
I would say his jump from 11.2 IP to 72 IP would cause some fatigue that may have affected his numbers, but on the other hand, he will be 35. So age-related decline probably outweighs any hope he’ll be better next season. Cardinals are right to pass on re-signing him.
Keynan Middleton
N/A
They should obviously reject his option – his track record is already pretty short, he’ll be 31 and completely missed this past season. I am not opposed to re-signing him for a lower salary though. Just cause like… I would like to see him pitch.
The Closer
Ryan Helsley
5.105 years of service, $6.9 million projected salary
Stats: 66.1 IP, 29.7 K%, 8.6 BB%, 36.8 GB%, .292 BABIP, 2.04 ERA/2.41 FIP/3.35 xFIP
As a team that seems to be approaching 2025 as a rebuilding year, or at least “we’re not really trying” year. Whatever label you want to put on it, an elite closer doesn’t really make sense for that team. Making no comment on the validity of either approach, it really kind of seems like you should either extend him or trade him. Like if you don’t believe 2024 is a playoff year, just holding onto Helsley doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
I suppose this offseason will tell us of the Cardinals’ true intentions. They can say what they want, but holding onto Helsley to me indicates they have some hope of making the playoffs. Why risk him getting injured, he has not exactly been a model of health?
Letting the season play out and then deciding whether or not to trade him at the deadline is not really an approach that jives with “we are rebuilding.” Again, I have no problem with running the team more or less the same, with the exception of the departing free agents, and just hoping it goes better, but that’s not a rebuild.
Helsley is entering his age 30 season and will be a free agent after next season. He just had a career year. He doesn’t have the most trade value on the Cardinals, but he is very obviously the guy you trade if you’re soft punting on 2025. So this will be interesting.
Fixtures
JoJo Romero
4.045 years of service time, $1.9 million projected salary
Stats: 65 G, 59 IP, 21 K%, 6.6 BB%, 48.8 GB%, .270 BABIP, 3.36 ERA/4.27 FIP/3.84 xFIP
Now this guy, this guy has some 1st half/2nd half splits. He was fantastic in the 1st half, terrible in the 2nd half. He also ended up being a pretty bad pitcher against right-handed hitters, which I’m pretty sure was not the case in the 1st half. Or at least certainly not to this extreme.
Romero is a guy who does not make sense to trade. Yes, he only has two years of team control and no I’m not making an argument to keep him for 2026. But he had a relatively unspectacular year in the bullpen and he’s shown flashes of being elite. The opportunity cost of not trading him is simply not high. I don’t think he’d fetch much. If he regains his 1st half form, his trade value skyrockets. Pretty simple. If the Cards are out of it by the trade deadline, and Romero has a similar 1st half next season, I think you should both trade him and I think it’d be a pretty good return.
Ryan Fernandez
1.000 years of service time, league minimum
Stats: 62 G, 66.2 IP, 24.9 K%, 11.2 BB%, 42.9 GB%, .307 BABIP, 3.51 ERA/3.35 FIP/3.90 xFIP
An effective reliever for nothing. That’s exactly how you want to compile your bullpen. I’m not sure he’s quite earned late innings for a good team with his stats, but he’s better than your average middle reliever at the very least.
Matthew Liberatore
1.144 years of service time, league minimum
Stats: 60 G, 6 GS, 86 IP, 21.2 K%, 7.8 BB%, 42.2 GB%, .290 BABIP, 4.40 ERA/4.11 FIP/4.17 xFIP
I’m still not sold on putting him in the bullpen for good, but it’s hard to look at the 2025 roster and see how the hell he starts. A whole bunch of spots open up after 2025, but for next season? Injuries are gonna have to force him there.
His K/BB numbers were actually pretty similar starting and relieving (13.5 K/BB%, 13.4% relieving), he just had a huge home run problem. He allowed 5 homers starting, 6 homers relieving. But he threw 63.1 innings relieving, 22.2 starting. 4 of his 6 homers allowed relieving, he faced 6 or less batters. So it could be a statistical blip or he’s not cut out for starting.
Decision-Time
John King
3.145 years of service time, $1.5 million
Stats: 56 G, 60 IP, 15.3 K%, 5.6 BB%, 61.7 GB%, .279 BABIP, 2.85 ERA/3.73 FIP/3.78 xFIP
John King is probably out of options, which I only say, because when I went through when he was called up and sent down earlier in the year, it seemed like he was always called up before 20 days were up. But MLBTR’s service time at least suggests he was called down long enough to burn an option, because his service time last year was 2.148. I don’t think his service time can go down without burning an option.
He can’t be a shuttle reliever if that’s the case, but he really fits the spirit of that category more than a “fixture.” I also assume the Cardinals will be tendering a contract, because he’s an effective and cheap reliever. He is the type of reliever I would really like to be able to send down, but also he’s not exactly a reliever you care about DFA’ing if his stuff stops working.
Zack Thompson
Between 1 and 2 years service time, league minimum
Stats (AAA): 21 G, 90 IP, 27.4 K%, 14.2 BB%, 44.6 GB%, .271 BABIP, 4.40 ERA/4.68 FIP/4.93 xFIP
Thompson and King are both out of options, which is why they’re in this category and in theory, it’d be a weird bullpen to have both them, Romero, and Liberatore. Of course, next year is promising to be a weird year so they very well may have all four! But Thompson can no longer be sent to the minors. So if he’s here, he’s probably in the bullpen.
The Shuttle
Chris Roycroft
Between 1 and 2 years of service time, league minimum
Stats: 27 G, 34.1 IP, 21.3 K%, 11 BB%, 53.5 GB%, .293 BABIP, 4.19 ERA/3.84 FIP/4.22 xFIP
An effective reliever for nothing. He also still has two options that can be burned. This is exactly who you want for your bullpen shuttle.
Kyle Leahy
Between 1 and 2 years of service time, league minimum
Stats: 33 G, 48.2 IP, 17.3 K%, 5.2 BB%, 41.1 GB%, .252 BABIP, 4.07 ERA/3.56 FIP/4.41 xFIP
You know for a guy who was running 10% or higher BB rates in AA and AAA prior to this year, kind of odd for him to be a low K, low BB guy. Anyway, if Roycroft is a bullpen shuttle guy who starts the year in the majors, Leahy a bullpen shuttle guy who starts in the minors for me.
Riley O’Brien
1.009 service time, league minimum
Stats: 8 IP, 23.9 K%, 17.4 BB%, 38.5 GB%, .458 BABIP, 11.25 ERA/7.04 FIP/5.68 xFIP
Good chance he’s not back, but maybe they’ll try again next year. Their usage of him somewhat suggests they will give it another chance. He made the team out of spring training, immediately got hurt, had a long rehab assignment, was activated from the injured list, and called up 16 days later. That’s under 20 days. Despite being terrible, he stayed in the majors the rest of the year.
Why is this important? Well, he would retain his one option. So he can get sent down to Memphis, which is very important for a reliever who posts those stats. O’Brien struck out 37.7% of batters in AAA last season and just 17.3% this year in AAA, so either he’s lost it or he was a pitcher trying to find his mechanics after a long layover. On the flipside, he maybe can get DFA’d and go unclaimed ala Kyle Leahy last offseason.
Ryan Loutos
Between 1 and 2 years of service time, league minimum
Stats: 3 G, 2.1 IP, 0 K%, 10 BB%, 44.4 GB%, .222 BABIP, 0.00 ERA/4.45 FIP/7.69 xFIP
He was pretty good in AAA by the way. If he makes it through the 40 man through the offseason, I imagine we’ll see more of him next season. If not, I’m guessing he’ll be claimed by some other team.
Packy Naughton
2.003 years of service time, league minimum
I’m wishing this into existence. I don’t think he’s a Cardinal next year.
The Minor Leaguers
Andre Granillo
Stats (AA): 14 G, 18.1 IP, 31.9 K%, 13.9 BB%, 36.8 GB%, 1.47 ERA/3.25 FIP/3.73 xFIP
AAA: 34 G, 46.2 IP, 27.9 K%, 15.2 BB%, 31.3 GB%, 4.82 ERA/4.85 FIP/5.15 xFIP
Granillo needs to be added to the 40 man. He is Rule 5 eligible. I am not convinced he’d be picked, so he may not be added. But I expect, if he manages to survive the winter as a Cardinal, he’ll be a part of the bullpen shuttle one way or the other. The only reason he’s not in that category is uncertainty he’ll stay a Cardinal.
Alex Cornwell
Stats (AA): 19 G (15 GS), 83.2 IP, 23.5 K%, 9.5 BB%, 57.5 GB%, 4.95 ERA/3.82 FIP/3.60 xFIP
AAA: 6 G, 15.1 IP, 18.5 K%, 7.7 BB%, 61.7 GB%, 4.70 ERA/4.68 FIP/4.15 xFIP
In theory, he could have John King’s career. Just a lefty who is a groundball machine.
Matt Svanson
Stats (AA): 53 G, 63.2 IP, 20.8 K%, 8.8 BB%, 52.7 GB%, .342 BABIP, 2.69 ERA/3.93 FIP/4.08 xFIP
The return for Paul DeJong. He won’t be added to the 40 man, but he may very well make his MLB debut as a Cardinal next year.
Connor Thomas
Stats: 53 G, 90.1 IP, 20.6 K%, 6.3 BB%, 53.5 GB%, .331 BABIP, 2.89 ERA/3.87 FIP/4.13 xFIP
Yes, he’s still around. Got moved to the bullpen last year. Nothing special, but could be next year’s Kyle Leahy as an effective replacement when the Cardinals need innings.
Another name worth monitoring is Nathaniel Heredia, who is of course left-handed as just about every reliever in this system is. He was unimpressive in High A, got called up to AA and just… dominated. Struck out 35% of hitters, walked just 9%, decent amount of groundballs. 24 next season too. Only 18 appearances in AA, but if any of that sticks, he’ll ascend quickly.
Starter or Reliever
I’m not going to list their stats, just because they aren’t much use in this context. Just know moving to the bullpen could boost their stuff and stats.
Sem Robberse – He will burn his second of three options next year, so if there’s no room in the rotation, maybe he’ll get some MLB time in the bullpen just for experience’s sake.
Gordon Graceffo – I really have no idea what they’re going to do with him, but it’s easy to see why you might want to just put him in the bullpen now. There’s just so many prospects in this system who look like a better bet than him. The only thing he really has on any of the prospects is AAA experience and ask Connor Thomas where that got him.
Adam Kloffenstein – He does have a history of needing time to adjust to the new level. He does have a similar problem to Graceffo though, but he’s 24 next year so it feels less urgent.
Ian Bedell – Basically, this group all has the same problem. They are not Quinn Mathews, they are not Tink Hence, they are not Tekoah Roby, and they are not Cooper Hjerpe. The other problem of course is that they weren’t very good in AAA, that doesn’t help