When analyzing young big league hitters and trying to project, there are a few critical boxes to check. Fundamentally, the major pillars are discerning balls and strikes, making contact with the ball, and hitting the ball hard. In many cases, these young players can be successful in some areas but lag behind in others. Some players are granted a long leash to figure it out at the plate due to their defensive excellence or pedigree. Or they perform well even with those initial deficiencies as a hitter and allow for another level to be unlocked with more improvements around the edges. Some are also forgotten about due to injury. Let’s take a look into a few different hitters who are now flying under the radar and their future outlooks.
Profiling Under the Radar MLB Hitters
Nolan Schanuel
Los Angeles Angels first baseman Nolan Schanuel was famously fast-tracked to the majors six weeks after being drafted in 2023. He possesses many of the ideal plate discipline and contact traits you would want, perhaps among the best in the league. Per FanGraphs, he ranked inside the top 12 in walk-to-strikeout ratio (among qualified hitters). However, he also has some of the worst raw power in the majors. By maxEV, which is the maximum exit velocity of a ball off a bat, only Cleveland Guardians contact savant Steven Kwan has a lower maxEV (105.9 MPH). Comparatively, Schanuel is a 6’4″ first baseman and Kwan is a 5’9″ outfielder.
Notable Numbers
| BB% | 11.2% |
| O-Swing% | 25.5% |
| SwStr% | 5.5% |
| Barrel% | 3.5% |
Schanuel is in the 87th percentile or better for all of these marks except Barrel%. Despite owning bottom-of-the-barrel power, the former first-round pick managed to pop 13 home runs in his first full season. The floor is already set reasonably high with his propensity to draw walks and avoid whiffs. In 2024, Schanuel slashed .250/.343/.362 (104 wRC+). An approach to hit for more power has been prevalent for hitters who have a plus hit tool and a good sense of the zone but poor raw power. Players like Alex Bregman, Marcus Semien, and José Ramírez have mastered this approach. Look to get out in front of the ball and pull it for power.
In addition, a popular training tool for hitters looking to add bat speed is weighted bats. Introduce young hitters with excellent bat-to-ball skills and discipline but limited power to weighted bat training and you end up with guys like Jose Ramirez and Mookie Betts. Of course, those are outlier types of names. Relating him back to Kwan is interesting, though. Kwan has similar contact quality numbers and pulled only 12.6% of his fly balls in 2023 leading to only a five home run season. In 2024, Kwan doubled his pulled fly ball rate and subsequently almost tripled his home run total. Schanuel was above that at 28.7%, so there is the possibility depending on his preference of approach.
Future Outlook
There is a fine line to walk between unlocking more power and ruining a player’s swing. Given Schanuel’s unique ability to square the ball up and avoid swinging and missing, there is some risk in messing with his timing to where it is a negative. Focusing on pulling can potentially lead to bad habits and increased swing-and-miss. Ideally, the lefty can maintain his strong approach while also having a cue to be aggressive in certain situations to do damage. With his low strikeout rate, he could afford to whiff more in exchange for more power. Furthermore, Schanuel’s swinging strike rate and line drive rate are among the top in the league. So while he only hit .250 last season, there is real potential for at least a .260-.270 average.
Ultimately, if Schanuel had even average to above-average power, he would be one of the better hitters in baseball. He checks almost all of the process stats you want to see except maybe the one that most determines a hitter’s upside. He even chipped in 10 stolen bases last year. Schanuel remains one of the more intriguing under-the-radar hitters in the game. He is still only 22 years old and getting better. There is a chance he could hit around .270 with a high OBP and near 20 home runs and 10 steals next year. Michael Brantley feels like an interesting potential comparison for his future production style.
Iván Herrera
Another of the group of under-the-radar hitters entering 2025 is St. Louis Cardinals catcher Iván Herrera, whose stock is on the rise. It was reported shortly after the season’s conclusion that Willson Contreras will move off catcher in 2025. This opens an opportunity for a healthy amount of playing time for the young backstop. Herrera displayed an enticing offensive profile in 2024, slashing .301/.372/.428 (127 wRC+) across 259 plate appearances. Pedro Pagés is there as well and should serve as the backup. Pagés looks like the superior defender but was poor with the bat (83 wRC+).
Notable Numbers
| BB% | 9.7% |
| O-Swing% | 29.4% |
| SwStr% | 9.4% |
| Barrel% | 8.9% |
Herrera is average to above average in each of these statistics. There are numerous other stats out there that can help as well, but these are important to consider. Immediately, the power and contact ability stand out. Combined with a solid walk-and-chase rate, it presents an appealing profile. While he had a much lower number of plate appearances, his rate stats and contact quality were near the top among catchers. He has also increased his maxEV every year of his career, starting at 104.6 MPH in 2022 and up to 112.4 MPH now.
Rookie hitters with a contact rate above 75% and a hard-hit rate above 40% in 2024 (Min 250 PA).
Jackson Merrill
Wyatt Langford
Jackson Chourio
Ivan Herrera
Andy Pages— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) October 16, 2024
Future Outlook
With MLB pitchers continuing to throw the fastball less, the ability to hit off-speed and breaking balls is even more paramount. Herrera was among the league’s best against these two pitch clusters, ranking 14th among all hitters in xSLG.
Herrera, 24 years old, will need to continue to make strides defensively to ensure he has the upper hand in playing time. It feels relatively similar in a way to Yainer Diaz performing well in a smaller sample in 2023, then being handed the keys in 2024 and enjoying a breakout season. Stylistically, they are much different hitters. Herrera’s batting average will fall as his batted ball luck normalizes. A possibly more apt comparison for Ivan Herrera would be Tyler Stephenson. However, an interesting differentiation is Herrera’s 3 MPH advantage in bat speed.
Jung Hoo Lee
The last of our under-the-radar hitters highlighted here is San Francisco Giants center fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Lee unfortunately had his first season ended shortly due to a labrum injury. The 26-year-old came over from South Korea known for his hit tool and speed with questions of what his power would look like. We did not get a complete answer in only 37 games, as he slashed just .262/.310/.331 (83 wRC+), but some things were learned. The hit tool and barrel control were already on display and looks like it will not have any issues carrying over to the majors.
Notable Numbers
| BB% | 6.3% |
| O-Swing% | 31.0% |
| SwStr% | 3.7% |
| Barrel% | 4.5% |
Superficially, Lee profiles similarly to Luis Arráez and Steven Kwan who are all fittingly in the top three of swinging strike rate (minimum 150 plate appearances). An important distinction about Lee lies in his power upside. Kwan and Arráez both sit at the bottom of the bat speed leaderboard. Here are some key differences in their bat-tracking metrics:
- Luis Arráez – 63.2 MPH Avg. Bat Speed, 6.0 ft. Swing Length, 0.3% Fast Swing Rate (at least 75 MPH), 43.9% Squared-Up Rate
- Steven Kwan- 64.4 MPH Avg. Bat Speed, 6.4 ft. Swing Length, 0.4% Fast Swing Rate (at least 75 MPH), 38.8% Squared-Up Rate
- Jung Hoo Lee – 70.6 MPH Avg. Bat Speed, 7.4 ft. Swing Length, 12.9% Fast Swing Rate (at least 75 MPH), 37.1% Squared-Up Rate
While Lee does not have above-average bat speed, he is at a much higher mark than some players he has been compared to. Moreover, Kwan and Arráez have uniquely short swings, whereas Lee’s is actually longer than the league average. Despite owning fairly different bat tracking characteristics, Lee is still right with both of them in terms of Squared-Up Rate. While this power upside was not present often, it can be reflected in his 41% hard-hit rate, a number that neither Kwan nor Arráez has sniffed. Furthermore, his approach isn’t as well-rounded as Kwan’s, but also not as aggressive as Arráez’s. But overall, Lee looks like he should have the most power and speed among this group.
Future Outlook
Lee has an interesting profile which suggests he should almost certainly hit for a close to .300 average. While he could tap into more power, it is important to consider that his home park is one of the worst for left-handed home run production. There have not been too many of his style of hitters in recent years. And among them, there is not a long list of sluggers.
While his stolen base upside may not be massive, he did show off 80th-percentile sprint speed in 2024. An interesting comparison for Lee’s production would be Wander Franco. His skillset could produce a season where he hits .300 and nears a 15-15 season.
Summary
Making good swing decisions, making contact, and hitting the ball hard are the things you want from hitters. In the case of these three under-the-radar hitters, they do some if not most of that. They are all 26 years old or younger and looking to improve. Projecting these things forward is always difficult, but they all have interesting upsides heading into 2025.
Photo Credit: © Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
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