Checking in on fangraphs and baseball reference’s WAR totals for 2024
Last week I let my mind wander around on Baseball Savant. I have a more specific idea this week. Many a VEB reader is accustomed to and much prefers Fangraphs version of WAR, fWAR. But many diehard old school statheads still reference bWAR, from baseball reference. The two most common forms of WAR (i.e. readily available) have been around for a while now and have grown to be widely accepted. Not everyone has accepted it though, as I see some social media pages constantly trying to put down WAR as a stat to compare total value provided by a player. It can get a little confusing though, because defense is difficult to evaluate, and less predictive in less than a season (or three). And some fans still use fielding percentage which is just weird.
We are still left with a conundrum, when trying to directly compare players since there is no other general stat which also encompasses defensive value. For years people were left comparing RBI totals, hits, and batting average. We have come a long way since then. WAR has become more accepted and is even referenced in the mainstream for years now.
Let’s jump right in to an idea I had, just comparing the two most readily available WAR models. I checked in on ESPN’s WAR and it appears to be just the same as Baseball Reference, which we already include here. Basically what you will usually see is either fWAR (fangraphs) or bWAR (baseball-reference) Wins Above Replacement (level) stats. It is my impression that if you see MLB quote WAR, it will be fWAR though.
Today we are going to examine which players are favored by each of the two major systems, which players fWAR and bWAR agree on, how different they can be, and so on. For the sake of time and sanity, I am only looking at 50 players. And for now, I am just looking at position players.
First let’s look at our top 10’s:
fWAR
- Judge
- Witt Jr
- Ohtani
- Soto
- Henderson
- Lindor
- Duran
- Ramirez
- de la Cruz
- Marte
bWAR
- Judge
- Witt Jr
- Ohtani
- Henderson
- Duran
- Soto
- Chapman
- Lindor
- Ramirez
- Marte
Outside of the top 3, the two systems rankings are pretty different in order, and Fangraphs prefers Ely de la Cruz in its top 10 players, while baseball reference sees Matt Chapman as more valuable. So not entirely different, but not in agreeance really. Let’s first look at where the two evaluation systems agree.
Players fWAR and bWAR agreed upon (exactly the same or within .1 WAR total):
- Shohei Ohtani is slightly favored by b-ref 9.2 to 9.1. Since he was a DH, you can tell the offense is calculated slightly differently, but there is not much difference.
- Yordan Alvarez again, slightly preferred by BR, 5.4 b-war to 5.3 fWAR.
- Marcus Semien, on the other hand, is slightly favored by Fangraphs WAR 4.2 to 4.1.
- Alex Bregman is the the first player both systems totally agreed upon, exactly 4.1 WAR.
- Jackson Chourio slightly favored by fWAR 3.9 to 3.8 b-war.
- Ezequiel Tovar is the other player both systems agreed upon, exactly 3.7 WAR.
There are only six players the two component stat systems truly agree upon within the margin of .1 WAR error. Or only two of fifty players resulting in exactly matching calculated valuations. Outside of that, let’s allow for a little more margin of error because after all, they are calculated almost completely differently. How many do they agree on in a more general sense?
They pretty much agree on Judge, Soto, Ramirez, Harper, Betts, Ozuna, Swanson, Doyle, Kwan, Happ, Devers, Hoerner, and Machado. So if we extend the range to as long as it is less than half a win different, there are 19 of 50 players where the two stats value pretty much the same (granted this is now a much wider margin of error).
What if we were to look at the players that are definitely more than a little off, but still within 1 win of the two WAR totals? That’s 18 more players, so 37 total out of 50 that are at least within 1 win. So who are these 13 players that the two popular WAR systems cannot agree upon? Remember, these are all players that are more than a whole win above replacement level different in total.
Presented in countdown order:
- 1.1 win variation: Gunnar Henderson favored by baseball reference 9.1 to 8 fWAR.
- 1.2 win variation: Fangraphs preferred Ely de la Cruz, 6.4 fWAR to 5.2 bWAR.
- 1.3 win variation: Jazz Chisholm Jr favored by Fangraphs 4 fWAR to 2.7 bWAR.
- 1.3 win variation: Masyn Winn and Jeremy Pena both favored by baseball reference.
- 1.4 win variation: Riley Greene favored by baseball reference 5.4 to 4.
- 1.5 win variation: Teoscar Hernandez favored by BR 4.3 to 2.8 WAR.
- 1.6 win variation: one of each system favors Zach Neto and Will Adames. Fangraphs favors Adames and baseball reference favors Neto.
- 1.7 win variation: Matt Chapman really exemplifies how these systems are going to evaluate elite defenders’ value differently. 7.1 bWAR to 5.4 fWAR.
- 1.8 win variation: baseball reference really loves Daulton Varsho, while fangraphs has him at 3.3 fWAR. In fangraphs estimation, Varsho is barely even in this study at all, but in BR world Daulton Varsho is easily a top 20 player! I just find this hard to believe.
- 2 win variation: ok now we get into the top tier of WAR vs WAR, only two players are 2 or more wins off between the two WAR systems. The first one is Jarren Duran. 129 OPS+ on baseball reference, 114 wRC+ on fangraphs. Mostly a different evaluation offensively there. Oddly enough, the two win bump only moves Duran up the WAR leaderboard two spots from #7 to #5.
- 2.1 win variation: Fangraphs and baseball reference really cannot agree on this guy’s total value, 4.6 bWAR to 2.5 fWAR. And that players is Brice Turang. The two systems agree on his offensive performance, which was well below average. BR is giving him a lot more value for his defense at second base. He must be a really good second baseman, baseball reference!
Ok. I hope that was fun. I enjoyed it. There isn’t really much point to it, but statistics are always fun to look at and it’s interesting to think about what all goes into evaluating these two systems, and why they are evaluating certain players so differently. They were just about completely off from each other on around 25% of the players performances. And they agreed upon even less. Hopefully the two WARs can come together and agree on something.
Oh wait, there’s more! I have calculated what the consensus is between these two stats, just for shots and goggles. I will include all 50 players I calculated:
Consensus WAR ranking
- Judge 11 WAR
- Bobby Witt Jr 9.9 WAR
- Shohei Ohtani 9.15 WAR
- Gunnar Henderson 8.55 WAR
- Juan Soto 8 WAR
- Jarren Duran 7.7 WAR
- Francisco Lindor 7.4 WAR
- Jose Ramirez 6.65 WAR
- Ketel Marte 6.55 WAR
- Matt Chapman 6.25 WAR
- Ely de la Cruz & Vladimir Guerrero Jr 5.8 WAR
- Brent Rooker and Yordan Alvarez 5.35 WAR
- William Contreras 5.15 WAR
- Cal Raleigh & Bryce Harper 5 WAR
- Jackson Merrill 4.85 WAR
- Riley Greene 4.8 WAR
- Corey Seager 4.75 WAR
- Mookie Betts 4.6 WAR
- Marcel Ozuna 4.5 WAR
- Kyle Tucker 4.45 WAR
- Freddie Freeman 4.4 WAR
- Zach Neto 4.3 WAR
- Masyn Wynn 4.25 WAR
- Daulton Varsho 4.2 WAR
- Dansby Swanson and Marcus Semien 4.15 WAR
- Alex Bregman 4.1 WAR
- Julio Rodriguez 4.05 WAR
- Jurickson Profar and Steven Kwan 4 WAR
- Willy Adames and Rafael Devers 3.9 WAR
- Brendan Doyle and Jackson Curio 3.85 WAR
- Nico Hoerner 3.8 WAR
- Ian Happ 3.75 WAR
- Corbin Carroll and Ezequiel Tolvar 3.7 WAR
- Jose Altuve 3.65 WAR
- Brice Turang, Teoscar Hernandez, & Colton Cowser 3.55 WAR
- Jeremy Pena, Trea Turner, & Eugenio Suarez 3.45 WAR
- Manny Machado 3.4 WAR
- Jazz Chisholm Jr 3.35 WAR
So here it is, the “between the stations” bizarro world consensus WAR player rankings. Ignore the 1 through 38 numbers as there are many ties taking up spots there, it’s just a different and easy way to number it. But you get the idea. As you can see only one Cardinal is in this study and that’s because Willson Contreras was injured off and on this season, so he just missed the cut. Mookie Betts however missed playing time too but he made this list since he’s just ridiculously good. So I easily could have included Contreras but maybe another time I will evaluate the Cardinals in this way.
Masyn Winn was arguably the most exciting Cardinals position player in 2024. It was his rookie season, he threw the hardest of all the full time shortstops, and he had moments where he looked like an MLB hitter, even though he was just on a streak at the time. Still, his offense looked pretty good for a young player, and the defense, while a work in progress, was evaluated very positively, both by WAR and by many fans.
Winn was evaluated so differently by fWAR and bWAR that many of us stare at the baseball reference total in awe, like how could that be… but also feeling fangraphs may have rated him a little unfairly. Whatever the case, it is more exciting to hear of Masyn Winn as a top 30 MLB player, than it is going with the Fangraphs total, which still puts him in the top 50. The Cardinals can say that they are not one of the teams that do not have a top 30 player, if we go by consensus WAR totals.
The standard deviation or average deviation of the 50 players is .728 off from each other, using fWAR and bWAR. A range of 0 to 2.1.
There were 25 players that Fangraphs gave more WAR to, 24 players that baseball reference gave preference to, and 1 player that the two systems completely agreed on. So it would appear one system is not simply giving out more WAR for defense or any other apparent pattern of bias. The one bias there is though, is that Baseball Reference was more likely to play favorites and “overrate” certain players.
Baseball Reference favoritism (more than 1 win greater than fWAR, well beyond the .728 standard deviation):
- Gunnar Henderson
- Jason Durran*
- Matt Chapman*
- Riley Greene
- Zach Neto*
- Daulton Varsho*
- Brice Turang*
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Jeremy Pena
- Masyn Winn
I am not sure why Baseball Reference evaluated these players more highly than it probably should have. I would suggest taking both systems with a grain of salt, but especially Baseball Reference WAR.
* an extreme bias of more than 1.5 WAR higher than fWAR
When fangraphs prefers a player in its WAR total, the results are less extreme and much less than when BR spikes up in its total on some players. The only player it favored by more than a win more than bWAR was Jazz Chisholm Jr. And only two players were even close to 1 win more besides him. All I can say is there must be something to bWAR that keeps it around, and fWAR isn’t always right either. I think it’s safe to say Fangraphs seems more accurate, and has more advanced defensive metrics in play as the defensive component. But it is interesting to look at the standout bWAR players, to see who are these anomalies.
Thanks for reading, it was a fun project this week and hopefully I can do the pitching portion soon. As for choosing from the two Jacksons to go up against Rookie of the Year competitor Paul Skenes, Jackson Merrill is preferable by a whole win over Jackson Chourio.
This is one year that it is no question who the MVPs of each league should be. And they are now facing each other in the World Series. ‘Til next week, more baseball!!!
Now I will switch over to music writing, you can stop reading here if you’re just here for the baseball
Dr Howl’s Hall of Fame of Albums
VEB covers the media too! Well anyways this is my little corner where I present to you what I think is a perfect album. All killer no filler start to finish. Production fits the music, the performances are either spot on, artful, or otherworldly, it is inspiring or brilliant in some way, and it demands repeated listens while never getting old.
Since Halloween approaches, it’s gotta get more Metal. Or scary. Dark. Whatever. Maybe goofy costume music. Well, in that case you have to go with Mr. Bungle.
Eureka, California’s finest signed to Warner Bros Records so long ago that it was over 3 decades. I can’t believe I’m saying that. Ok, it was way back in 1990. If you don’t know who Mr. Bungle is, in recent times they have appeared as a thrash metal band, which goes back to their high school roots. However, if you were into Mr. Bungle in the 1990s, you are familiar with a different sounding band. A band with many dimensions, styles, and a rather wild range of themes.
Mike Patton is known as having the widest vocal range of any well known singer. He can almost hit the lowest of lows and the highest of highs. While he is most famous for the song ‘Epic’ by Faith No More, Patton has had an incredibly vast music career encompassing music scores, providing whacko sound effects in horror movies and video games, singing in the Italian orchestral band Mondo Cane, and singing some of the most punked out rock and heavy metal in history. He has incredible stage presence and he is really into his craft, while being extremely gifted vocally. This guy can sing everything from operatic haunting dirges to hiphop to punk to death metal to country to well, just about anything you can think of! Even Balinese monkey chants!
I could go on and on about each band member’s musical prowess and expertise but that would be a whole other topic. This is about inducting one of their albums into the album hall of fame. We might as well go with their first album, the self titled Mr. Bungle here, because it has very very Halloween impressions (although all of their albums are Halloweenish). This is a naughty, majorly disturbing cult classic album, and while it is catchy as hell, it jumps around several different genres within each song, making it a rather wild and memorable listening experience.
Not only is this album amazingly technically proficient in every way, produced extremely well by musical mastermind John Zorn, it is decked out with radically gawdy clown themes in its album art and with audio samples from old after school PSAs, giving the listener a disorienting musical experience between song, which tells a vague story but leaves the listener questioning what the hell just happened.
Genre-wise it heavily references heavy metal, funk, jazz, soundtrack, ska, rock, and the avant garde. You will hear a full horn section. You will hear a guitarist that has mastered all styles of guitar playing. The bassist (one of the all times greats) will play a technically complex but funky bassline that will leave your mind spinning as the album ends with a track titled “Dead Goon”.
Mr. Bungle has been known to cover a variety of pop songs live, and even “Mr. Rogers Neighborhood” theme more recently. So they really can do anything. And a few albums after their debut, Mr. Bungle became more pop oriented on their last 90’s album ‘California’ (which came out around the same time as Red Hot Chili Peppers ‘Californication’, and beyond that, there is a rivalry and even enmity between the two bands).
Since this is a very not safe for work album, I won’t be linking to it but if you haven’t already heard it, it won’t be hard to hear. Maybe one of the strangest run of 3 albums by any band released on Warner Records. The 1990s were a unique time to be alive, not gonna lie. There were so many odd gambles by record labels to find the next big alternative band. This was back when labels would actually try to find up and coming bands to sign and would go into music scenes nationwide. Not that that was necessarily a good thing, but it was a different world.
While all three of the 1990’s Mr. Bungle album are Hall of Fame worthy, the first two match better with a dark Halloween vibe. The debut is an absolute classic in this sense, and was the soundtrack to many a high school car drive when I was a teenager. ‘Disco Volante’ the follow up is my favorite, but it came out when I was in community college. And then ‘California’ was released when I moved to Chicago to go to art school.
Mr. Bungle’s self titled debut is the perfect intro to this band. It gives you a primer on their sound, schtick, and abilities, while not being too overwhelming with the genre hopping. I would play this album for someone from another country if they wanted to hear an audio representation of the underbelly of American culture while still being catchy and somewhat accessible.
This album is an unannounced concept album, presented without much description, a here it is, haunted looking album with disturbing artwork. It captures a vibe and makes its own weird little universe for you to enter, following the vague story of a character named Mr. Bungle, but also telling stories related to the band. It reminds me of what albums can be when written so well and presented with the utmost perfection in production. Rock music can be difficult to capture in this way and this album is mixed so well that it’s all a seamless magical spell on the listener. Your life will be changed by the world of Mr. Bungle. It is a demented, dark cartoon world coming from a small lumber town in northern California via a major label.
Check it out, if ya dare! The band used to wear crazy masks and outfits while playing live. I got to see them once, and a band called The Dillinger Escape Plan opened. It was one of the best concerts I have ever seen.
Next week I will induct the 4th album, and it will be something even spookier than Mr. Bungle! Then I’ll start inducting some other types of genres in November.
Album Hall of Fame
- John Coltrane – ‘Giant Steps’ (jazz)
- Meat Beat Manifesto – ‘Subliminal Sandwich’ (electronic)
- Mr. Bungle – ‘Mr. Bungle’ (multi-genre/undefinable)