Last week, I did a piece about the Cardinals and the trade deadline. Since Nolan Arenado is unlikely to be traded now, this will have been an offseason in which the Cardinals accomplished nothing in terms of adding or subtracting players. It also means that a lot of stuff is going to have to wait until the deadline.
In my piece last week, I talked about how I believe the Cardinals should prepare to be sellers rather than buyers. My reasoning for that is because it appears unlikely that they will be a serious contender in the National League, and that they might be headed for their second losing season in three years.
However, nothing is ever written in stone, and the Cardinals have surprised people in the past. I’m not sure I see that happening with this year’s team, but it’s always possible they could be better than expected.
So, if that’s the case and they’re in the mix at the deadline, what happens then? If they’re selling, I think it’s obvious that Ryan Helsley and Erick Fedde are their most tradable assets, but if they’re in the mix, they can’t trade them, right?
Well, not quite. In fact, I made clear in last week’s piece that no matter where they are in the standings, I think the Cardinals should find a way to move Fedde and Helsley. They’re in the final years of their contracts, and this will be their last chance to restock the farm system and get something valuable for those guys.
But even if they do trade them, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’d be quitting on the 2025 season. In fact, they’d be taking an approach that future President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom helped pioneer.
For years, Bloom worked in the Rays’ system. He’s been given a lot of credit for helping pioneer what is known as “The Rays Way.” The strategy the Rays use is quite complex, but because they don’t have as much money available as other teams, even including the Cardinals, the Rays make sure to always capitalize on their stars’ value while they still can.
They also make sure to land players in exchange that are Major League ready and can help them compete right away. This was the approach I was hoping the Cardinals would take last year and in 2023, even though 2023 had already gone south by the deadline.
The Rays draft and develop players like nobody’s business, and when those players reach their walk years when they’re about to receive a big long-term contract, they trade them away and add new players that they can help develop, and the cycle essentially repeats itself.
It’s helped the Rays remain competitive for years, and it’s a strategy that other small-market teams such as the Brewers and Guardians have perfected as well. So, yes, I am suggesting that this is what the Cardinals should do at the deadline if they find themselves in contention. In a sense, the Rays often buy and sell simultaneously at trade deadlines, and this is exactly what the Cardinals should do if they find themselves in the mix at the deadline.
That way, they can bring in valuable players that are going to help them win now, while also capitalizing on the value of players that are on expiring contracts. I would really hate to see the Cardinals not trade Helsley, only to lose him for nothing more than a compensation draft pick. They will have really missed a golden opportunity to capitalize on his value if that ends up happening. They almost certainly won’t be able to re-sign him anyway, so it makes sense.
But perhaps this is a strategy the Cardinals need to adopt in the future as well. They have more payroll space than the Rays, Brewers and Guardians, so they still should spend money on good players. But the way these teams have perfected the small-market strategy is noteworthy, and the Cardinals should be paying attention.
So, just because they may surprisingly find themselves in contention in 2025 doesn’t mean they shouldn’t still trade Helsley and Fedde. They just need to do some buying along with their selling.
Unfortunately, I don’t think they’ll find themselves in the mix, so my take from last week still applies here.