Also a chance to vote on the 18th prospect
I suppose it’s no surprise that Zack Showalter won the most recent vote. After all, Showalter lost the most recent prospect vote by just two votes. Now just because someone barely lost a vote doesn’t guarantee that they will the vote after it, but it is at least unusual for that not to be the case. He won handily, or what constitutes as handily at this point, so this next vote is anyone’s guess. The current list:
- JJ Wetherholt, SS
- Quinn Mathews, LHP
- Tink Hence, RHP
- Thomas Saggese, 2B/3B
- Jimmy Crooks III, C
- Michael McGreevy, RHP
- Chase Davis, OF
- Leonardo Bernal, C
- Cooper Hjerpe, LHP
- Tekoah Roby, RHP
- Chen-Wei Lin, RHP
- Gordon Graceffo, RHP
- Sem Robberse, RHP
- Matt Koperniak, OF
- Yairo Padilla, SS
- Darlin Saladin, RHP
- Zack Showalter, RHP
Comparable Player Corner
We’re going to do the same thing we did last week, except pitcher edition. We’re going to give you another chance to put a pitcher who lost their comparable player in the voting. I think this will be the last comparable player corner of the voting, because I don’t need anymore. This week is someone I intended to add earlier, and the next two votes are going to be the winners of the “loser” poll.
Andrew Dutkanych IV, a 21-year-old right-handed pitcher out of Vanderbilt. He is almost all potential. He was a top 50 prospect coming out of high school, but chose to go to Vandy. He threw 17 total innings at Vandy. He missed most of 2023 to a hamstring injury, and underwent TJ at an unspecified date, but they announced he needed it at the end of March last year.
Brycen Mautz, a 23-year-old who carried a 23.8 K%, 5.18 ERA, and 4.86 FIP (4.01 xFIP) in 121.2 IP of work. He was also sent to the AFL, where he displayed a revamped changeup he developed late in the year.
Juan Salas, who fits more of the Saladin mold of prospect. He’s been around without making much of a splash until he arrived in Low A this year. He is so little known that The Cardinal Nation calls him Gerardo Salas, and I assume they’re correct, but both B-R and FG have Juan as his first name. Anyway, he’s Saladin with worse stats (though still good) and without a promotion to High A.
New addition
Today, we’re adding starting pitcher Ixan Henderson, who I confess at the beginning of this, I did not think I would add to the voting. Not because he’s not deserving, just because he hasn’t really been on anyone’s radar. But I saw his stats, put him in a comparable player poll against Brycen Mautz, and he won the vote. Brian Walton then mentioned him on the podcast – spoiler alert if you haven’t listened to that yet. So he has earned his way into the voting.
Ian Bedell, RHP – 25
Stats (AA): 12 G, 64.2 IP, 29.5 K%, 7.1 BB%, 36 GB%, .265 BABIP, 4.73 ERA/4.59 FIP/3.46 xFIP
AAA: 9 G, 43 IP, 16.4 K%, 12.7 BB%, 37.7 GB%, .215 BABIP, 5.02 ERA/7.03 FIP/6.68 xFIP
BP: “The stuff is not overpowering but the arsenal is deep, allowing Bedell to turn over a lineup and stick as a starter.” (From June)
Bedell is a hard prospect to grade, primarily because of how late of a start he got. The typical rules you tend to follow for prospects are harder to follow when a player gets his professional debut – more or less – at 23-years-old. So there’s a good reason he’s sort of not as young as you’d prefer. But he did bomb in AAA last year, and this is probably his last shot to be on a top 20.
Won-Bin Cho, OF – 21
LYR: #11
Stats (High A): 107 G, 428 PAs, .227/.307/.305, 8.4 BB%, 31.3 K%, .078 ISO, .343 BABIP, 81 wRC+, 74 DRC+
BP: “Cho profiles favorably in the field, a solid corner outfield defender thanks to above-average speed and adequate reads, but is likely stretched in center field.”
There’s only so many ways I can say that Cho’s 2024 was effectively a lost year. Statistically speaking, there’s not really many positives that I can say. To repeat myself once more though, he’s a 21-year-old CF prospect who will still be in High A. He’s like the opposite of Bedell in fact, who is running out of time despite not having much. Cho seems to have a ton of time and he’s been playing pro ball for as many years as Bedell.
Luis Gastelum, RHP – 23
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Low A): 30 G, 48 IP, 34.5 K%, 5.4 BB%, 41.9 GB%, .359 BABIP, 2.81 ERA/2.47 FIP/2.12 xFIP
BP: He’s a 23-year-old relief prospect who “broke out” last season in Low A, so naturally BP hasn’t written a word about him.
Gastellum is here because of basically his stats. And his amazing changeup. Sometimes, one great pitch is all you need to become a relief prospect. Because sometimes that one pitch allows you to strike out 34% of hitters.
Michael Helman, 28 – IF/OF
LYR: Not in system
Stats (AAA): 72 G, 314 PAs, .271/.350/.487, 9.2 BB%, 24.2 K%, .217 ISO, .323 BABIP, 116 wRC+
BP: Much the same as Koperniak, I don’t know that BP has ever written a word about Helman.
Helman is actually another player who had a late start, in his case because of the pandemic and because of injury-filled years. He also was drafted as an older college player. Basically, there is an explanation for each year he is over 25. Now just because there is an explanation doesn’t mean he’ll deliver.
Ixan Henderson, 23 – LHP
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Low A): 16 (11 GS), 73 IP, 26.3 K%, 9 BB%, 47.2 GB%, .261 BABIP, 2.10 ERA/3.02 FIP/3.57 xFIP;
High A: 6 GS, 31 IP, 19.5 K%, 10.5 BB%, 34.1 GB%, .341 BABIP, 2.90 ERA/4.57 FIP/4.80 xFIP
Henderson was an 8th rounder in the 2023 draft who only threw 3.2 IP in his draft year and they were all in relief and not particularly impressive. So it’s not really a shocker that he was and remains under the radar as a prospect. He’ll also probably repeat High A just because you’d prefer higher than a 19.5 K% from a pitching prospect.
Brian Holiday, 22 – RHP
LYR: Not in system
Stats (College): 16 GS, 113 IP, 28.6 K%, 4.2 BB%, .089 WHIP, 2.95 ERA
BP: “Because he’s short—listed at 5-foot-11—and has visual effort in his motion, he’s going to carry a future reliever tag until he doesn’t, but if the Cardinals are truly improving on pitcher development, Holiday has the type of arsenal they should start to see more successful outcomes with.”
Holiday is another difficult prospect to grade. Might as well group these 10 as difficult to grade prospects. In Holiday’s case, it’s because we have zero professional data on how good Holiday is. Normally, we are using scouting a little more than stats, but not entirely scouting in most cases.
Travis Honeyman, OF – 23
LYR: #20
Stats (Low A): 14 G, 60 PAs, .321/.367/.446, 5 BB%, 13 K%, .125 ISO, .375 BABIP, 133 wRC+
BP: Honeyman has a punchy little line-drive oriented swing, a tight barrel loop that generates explosive impact out in front of the plate. He’s geared to turn and burn, sending most of his contact to the pull side.
I have found the theme of the post. Difficult to grade prospects. Honeyman is not a lot different than Holiday actually. He has not played in many more games than Holiday. But Honeyman has injury issues. As a position player. We also judge position player injury differently than pitchers. Or at least theoretically we do.
Jonathan Mejia, 2B/SS – 20
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Complex): 205 PAs, .299/.395/.425, 12.2 BB%, 25.4 K%, .126 ISO, .405 BABIP, 127 wRC+
BP: They have spoken about him, but it is extremely dated (from 2023) and things have changed too much to share.
Mejia has taken an interesting route to where he is right now. I assume he gets his second crack at Low A next season. His first crack was a bit of an overambitious promotion in 2023 that effectively was a lost season for Mejia. And it’s not clear he should be considered a SS prospect anymore, although he did still play some last season.
Max Rajcic, RHP – 23
LYR: #12
Stats (AA): 25 G, 131 IP, 23.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 39.2 GB%, .314 BABIP, 4.33 ERA/4.41 FIP/4.03 xFIP/4.59 DRA
BP: “He has a very pretty looking but humpy curveball, though his changeup has actually taken a step forward to claim the title of his best offspeed offering (to go along with various flavors of slider).”
Rajcic is a pitcher who I have so little to say about that I simply have to keep repeating that his stats in AA are above average. You are probably annoyed at me saying it, but I honestly don’t have much to say about him besides the fact that I think he’s an interesting prospect.
Rainiel Rodriguez, C – 18
LYR: Not in organization
Stats (DSL): 41 G, 184 PAs, .345/.462/.683, 16.3 BB%, 13.6 K%, .338 ISO, .345 BABIP, 186 wRC+
BP: “He hits the ball pretty hard for his age, makes enough contact, controls the zone well, and might stick behind the dish.”
What is Rodriguez? A hard prospect to grade. In his case, because we have utter domination at a level where utter domination just doesn’t mean near as much as it would if it was done at any other level. He’s also a catcher, so he has a little more wiggle room for his bat to fall than, say, Malcolm Nunez did.