Yay Seniors. Beat Arkansas.
Missouri is 9-2 in their last 11 games against Arkansas, 11-4 overall, and has never lost to the Razorbacks in Columbia. I like those streaks. I don’t want that to change this Saturday.
Here’s the preview I wrote in July. I spent most of it believing that Pittman would be fired by at least the conclusion of the year and, now, that doesn’t seem to be the case. Whether that’s because of the marginal improvement in the team, the money tied up with luring away John Calipari, the uncertain nature of the House decision, or just a little more patience, it seems that Pittman will be back next year.
Which is good! He’s a nice guy and while I wish he’d find a less sleazy offensive coordinator, I think it’s a good thing when programs are patient with their guys.
Also he’s only beaten Missouri one time. As long as that number doesn’t change he can stay as long as he wants in my opinion.
Let’s break down this Senior Day match up.
When Missouri Has the Ball
Arkansas’ defense is good. Competent. Effective. What it is not is havoc-forward. They rank 61st in sacks, 115th in pressure rate, and 47th in blitz down success rate. Landon Jackson and Xavian Sorey are threats and get about one havoc play per game; outside of that, there really isn’t much there in terms of disruption.
However, they are one of the best rushing defenses in the country so Mizzou’s “punch them until they take a nap” offense that worked against Mississippi State probably won’t work here.
Pass to Win
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The flip side of Arkansas having the 14th-best rushing defense is that they also have the 99th-best passing offense. They rank 85th in yards per drop back, 99th in completion percentage allowed, 80th in passing explosiveness, and 92nd in interception percentage. If Brady Cook, Luther Burden, and Theo Wease want to have a memorable Senior Day then I’d suggest they get busy tearing stuff up in the secondary. A 45% success rate would be a great start here.
Keep Up With The Chains
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Arkansas’ defense in standard downs: 65th. Arkansas’ defense in passing downs: 36th. Kirby Moore has stunk very badly in scripting opening drives but is pretty good at adapting on the fly. My suggestion would be to take advantage of Arkansas’ crummy pass defense, throw on early downs, and then sporadically run the ball in less obvious situations to keep them off balance. In any case, Mizzou needs to find a way to be at least 50% in manageable 3rd-down conversions as this defense thrives in obvious passing situations.
Finish Your Dang Drives
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This will be one of the stingier scoring defense Missouri will see so far, with Arkansas currently ranking 14th with 3.5 points allowed per opportunity. Missouri has scored at least 20 points in every victory this year and Arkansas has allowed at least 20 points in every loss so let’s start there: 6 scoring opportunities at 3.5 points per opportunity for a total of 21.
When Arkansas Has the Ball
On offense the Razorbacks are, essentially, a better version of Missouri: 5th in rushing, 57th in passing, 7th in efficiency, 90th in explosiveness. They are almost the exact same offense in both standard downs and passing downs and are one of the best 3rd-down conversion offenses out there. So why are they ranked worse than Missouri then? Two things: havoc allowed and turnovers. They currently rank 126th in havoc allowed, are 133rd in blitz down sack rate, and 104th in pressure rate allowed. For as good as their offensive line is in run blocking they are equally bad at pass blocking. Sound like any team you know? So what does that mean for the keys to the game? Well…
HAVOC
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Arkansas is currently allowing a 35% pressure rate which is absurdly bad. Those pressure turn into sacks 24% of the time, also absurdly bad. Their sack rates are nearly identically bad in standard downs and passing downs. If Johnny Walker wants a memorable Senior Day, this is a great opponent to have it again. No matter the type of havoc, let’s shoot for at least 22%.
Turnovers!
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Given the amount of fumbles and types of passes batted around, Arkansas should have turned the ball over about 23 times by now; in reality, they’ve had 20 turnovers. So while they’ve been technically lucky in the turnover department in that it hasn’t been as bad as it could be, they are still very bad at turning the ball over. And while Mizzou’s defense isn’t the best at creating those turnovers, they are super good at taking advantage when the opportunity presents itself. A +2 in the turnover department would be a good omen for victory.
Conclusion
This is it: the last time you can see this team play football in Faurot. While most of Missouri’s goals are out the window by now they can still be on pace to win 10 games and extend Arkansas’ futility in this rivalry game if they show up and win. I guarantee you it won’t be pretty but that’s not how this team operates. Win for the seniors!