Analyzing Mizzou’s upcoming opponent with an analytics-based deep dive into the scouting and matchups that have this game in the balance.
Welcome to the Week 13 Mississippi State edition of Between the Numbers, where we preview Mizzou’s game with an analytics deep dive. I’ll look into tendencies, weak spots, strong spots, opportunities — areas the Tigers can exploit and things that they will need to step up. I will use advanced metrics such as PFF charting (and occasionally grading, although that system is a broadsword, not a scalpel). There will be a heavy dose of EPA, pulled from sources like Game on Paper and College Football Insiders. And, of course, some good ol’ fashioned SP+, as well.
This article will be less a big-picture list of goals that the Tigers need to do well, like in Nate Edwards’ indispensable weekly preview. It will be more of a spotlight on key matchups for this week’s opponent.
We are lucky to have a highly analytics literate readership here at Rock M Nation. If you want to discuss any of this content further, push back on some of my conclusions, or ask questions about the numbers, please post in the comments, on RockM+, or reach out on Twitter. Let’s get to it.
The penultimate game of Mizzou’s season offers the final chance to earn a road conference win. You only get four chances a year at one of those, and the Tigers have already biffed their first three. It will also be the easiest chance: the Mississippi State Bulldogs are a very manageable play right now.
Mississippi State is the worst non-Vanderbilt team since the Chad Morris years at Arkansas. The roster has completely collapsed from a long run of reliably producing NFL draft picks, and coaching and program identity has flipped twice in a year. Head coach Jeff Lebby has installed his version of the veer-and-shoot; he is Art Briles’ son-in-law, so it’s close to the original recipe. The extreme pace and inefficiency does little to support an undermanned defense called by a first-time coordinator. All told, the Bulldogs are playing out the string in a true reset year.
Defense has been the hardest hit. That side of the ball was always an underrated part of the MSU program, with Sunday players in abundance. But the team is now 97th in defensive SP+; it is hard to find any split in defensive performance where the team is even average. They are in the very bottom of the nation in Havoc (10th percentile) and EPA/game (123rd).
They let you stay on schedule (123rd in early downs EPA), and let you move the chains (127th in late down EPA). Their defense is terrible at controlling the game, ranking 133rd in Parker Fleming’s ECKEL rate, measuring how often teams allow quality drives. (Mizzou’s defense is sixth in that metric.)
After last week’s matchup with an athletic, physical, and aggressive South Carolina outfit — especially in the trench — it is going to feel like taking the donut off a baseball bat. Mississippi State ranks dead last, 134th out of 134, in both pass rushing and coverage on PFF grading.
At this point, we know what the Mizzou offense is, and this should be a tuneup game for the team to prepare for Brady Cook, Luther Burden, and Theo Wease’s final game at Faurot Field the following weekend.
The other side of the ball might get hairy, and potentially keep this game competitive for longer than Eli Drinkwitz and his staff want it to be. True freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren took over for veteran Baylor transfer Blake Shapen after the latter was lost foe the season. He pilots an offense that is a little better on the ground (63rd in EPA/rush) and the air (81st in EPA/pass.)
The offense is more “mediocre for FBS” rather than the defense’s “maybe worst in the entire country.” It does have one button it can push: they will create some chunk plays, ranking 99th percentile for explosives. Mizzou’s defense is middle of the pack in preventing big plays, at 55th percentile. However, Mississippi State is SO impotently inefficient outside of the big play — 16th percentile in EPA on non-explosives — that the Mizzou defense can mitigate things just by controlling the line of scrimmage. The Bulldogs’ patchwork offensive line — built out of internal spare parts and Group of Five transfers — is 109th in PFF pass blocking, and 119th in PFF run blocking.
This is one of the worst teams in the trenches that Mizzou will play this season on both sides of the ball, and the Tigers would be well-served to take advantage to tune up for the finale against the Razorbacks.