Luther Burden’s draft stock has dropped. But why?

Is it NFL draft cloak-and-dagger or will Burden really fall out of the first round?

Entering into the 2024 season, Luther Burden III was at the top of the mountain. He was second-team All American in 2023, a preseason first-team All American as well as top 10 in the Heisman betting odds. Perhaps even more importantly for Burden’s long-term future, he was at the tip of every NFL scout’s tongue as one of the top one (or two) wide receivers in the upcoming 2025 NFL draft. Over the 2024 summer he was consistently mock drafted in the top 10 by just about every site that engages in such click-baity exercises.

All of these (ultimately meaningless) accolades were given for good reason. Burden had just posted a stellar sophomore campaign, racking up 86 catches, 1,212 yards and nine touchdowns for one of the nation’s biggest surprise teams. The hype was real and warranted. Fast forward 10 months and Burden’s draft prospects have seen a sharp decline across the board, falling from a sure-fire top 10 pick to out of the first round based on a consensus of draft experts.

Why did such an obviously talented player drop so far? Is it a real drop or just typical NFL cloak-and-dagger BS to throw other teams off the scent? Scouts and draft experts alike point to two big reasons for his drop, so we’ll examine both and see if either hold water.

Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden III fails to catch a Brady Cook pass as he is guarded by a Florida defensive back during a game on Saturday, Nov 11, 2023, at Faurot Field in Columbia, Mo. Florida was not called for pass interference on the play. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M)

Statistical slump

Perhaps the biggest (and most legitimate) reason for Luther Burden’s draft stock drop is his significant drop in production from 2023 to 2024. After putting up more than 1,200 yards receiving in his sophomore year, Burden only tallied half that in 2024 at 676 yards on 61 catches. What might be even more concerning to scouts, according to ESPN’s Field Yates, is that his yards per reception drastically reduced as well from 14.1 in 2023 to 11.1 in 2024.

“What changed for Luther Burden that led to a dramatic downshift in production from 2023 to 2024? We see this happen when guys lose their quarterback. Wasn’t the case!…The explosion was not nearly as impressive this year as it was the year prior. The run after catch stuff was not even close to the same area in 2024 as it was in 2023. Scouts have been trying to figure out why. What happened? It’s why, and we talked about this weeks ago, these next two months are more important for Luther Burden III than maybe any other wide receiver in this class.”

Mizzou fans are more aware than anybody that Luther Burden’s production took a nose dive this past year. Of all the (numerous) frustrating things about the Mizzou offense in 2024, his drop off might top the list. But was his lack of production all his fault? Definitely not. The offense he played in really dropped the ball. While no one has yet to truly crack the case as to why the 2024 offense was so underwhelming, there are several non-Burden reasons to blame. First, his quarterback was injured much of the year, and played worse than 2023 in the games where he was relatively healthy.

Second, the offensive scheme became bland and predictable. Gone were the numerous slot fades that Burden feasted on 2023. Gone were the post routes and crossers that schemed him open against man and zone defenses alike. What replaced those proven plays were seemingly nothing but short outs and the occasional screen. Often, Burden would go full halves without even being targeted once. He went from a guy for whom the offense was designed around to an afterthought in many games.

Is it understandable for scouts to be concerned by a 50% drop in production? Absolutely. For scouts tasked with studying dozens and dozens of players, they often lack the capacity to dig in deeper to find out how and why players reach their current production levels beyond the individual plays they watch on film. Ultimately, while this concern by scouts is legitimate, it doesn’t (or at least shouldn’t) explain his draft board drop.

Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden III (3) leaves the field after the end of a game against Alabama on Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024, at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala. Burden had three catches for as many yards in the game. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)

Character concerns

The second reason scouts are pointing to when explaining Burden’s drop down draft boards are the amorphous and unquantifiable “character concerns.” In Burden’s case, a single anonymous “scout” made assertions about his family and his work ethic without bothering to be brave enough to put his name to his comments.

These alleged character “concerns” have since been recycled throughout the draft world by media members and other scouts alike, when, in reality, they were generated by a single anonymous source. There has been no verification, no sourcing and no follow up reporting to dig into the allegations, where they came from, and why.

Even if there was follow up reporting, what would they even find? Oh no, a five-star player was coddled at his school? That never happens! His girlfriend is his “manager?” What does that mean and why does that matter? His mom is a “problem?” How? Even if that were true, have there never been successful NFL players with problematic family members?

The only real complaint in that recycled quote is that he is “ordinary Monday through Friday,” meaning he isn’t over-the-top dedicated to game prep. While unverifiable, that doesn’t sound amazing for Burden. But even so, they didn’t say he was a poor preparer. Just ordinary. On the field, Burden is anything but ordinary and this “scout” had nothing to say about him on that front.

The bottom line is that these “character concerns” stink of NFL draft bull****. Teams, especially those with picks later in the first round will often say and do anything to throw teams higher in the draft off the scent of players they want to drop to them. Vague, anonymous slop like the quote above seems to fall squarely into that category and any team who chooses to believe that those “concerns” will hurt Burden’s pro potential are foolish at best.

At this point, it’s clear that Burden won’t be a top 10 pick like he was projected to be this time last year. As for whether or not he falls completely out of the first round is yet to be seen, but as they always say: it only takes one team. Regardless of whether he falls into the 20s, 30s or even 40s, whichever team takes him will get an absolute steal based on the talent he has flashed so far in his young career. My advice to NFL teams needing a receiver? Pass on Luther at your own peril.