Following a dominant loss at Auburn, Dennis Gates’ crew will look for a bounce-back against the Bayou Bengals.
Amidst a rocking Neville Arena, Mizzou basketball’s first SEC contest went about as expected. Against No. 2 Auburn, Johni Broome & Co. dominated from start to finish, handing MU an 84-68 loss in which the home Tigers led by as much as 26 points.
However, the road Tigers could take solace in a couple of things. One is that Auburn is likely a machine that seems primed for a deep NCAA Tournament run, and it’s arguable that Bruce Pearl’s team played incredibly more than Mizzou played poorly. Plus, the Black & Gold weren’t the only SEC team to end up on the losing end of a blowout that day; Arkansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Texas each lost by at least 20 points.
Now, MU will return home to face a different set of Tigers, with these ones hailing from Baton Rouge, Louisiana. On paper, LSU presents an easier matchup than Auburn, but in the SEC, cakewalks appear to be non-existent.
LSU @ Missouri
When | 8:00 p.m. CT
Where | Mizzou Arena; Columbia, Mo.
TV | ESPN+ I SEC Network+
Radio | Tiger Radio Network // Sirius/XM -119/199
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
ESPN win probability | 61% chance
The Starters
Mizzou (11-3, 0-1 SEC)
G: Anthony Robinson II (SO, 10.7 PPG)
G: Tamar Bates (SR, 12.6 PPG)
G: Tony Perkins (SR, 8.7 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (JR, 13.3 PPG)
C: Josh Gray (SR, 2.9 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Marques Warrick (SR, 9.0 PPG)
LSU (11-3, 0-1 SEC)
G: Camryn Carter (SR, 17.3 PPG)
G: Dji Bailey (SR, 10.1 PPG)
G: Jordan Sears (SR, 14.8 PPG)
G: Daimion Collins (SR, 7.7 PPG)
F: Corey Chest (FR, 7.9 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Vyctorius Miller (FR, 11.1 PPG)
Note: These starting lineups are projected.
Get to know LSU: Potential victims of the gauntlet
Matt McMahon’s first two seasons in Baton Rouge were far from spectacular — LSU went a combined 31-35 and 11-25 in conference play, including a 2-16 campaign in 2022-23. Heading into the 2024-25 season, expectations didn’t seem very high, as LSU was picked to finish No. 14 in the SEC preseason poll.
With conference play still in its infancy, almost every SEC team seems to have a legitimate shot to make the NCAA Tournament. 12 teams are in both Jerry Palm (CBS) and Joe Lunardi’s (ESPN) most recent edition of Bracketology. In Palm’s bracket, Vanderbilt is one of the Last Four In, while the Commodores and Mizzou are two of Lundardi’s First Four Out. The only two teams not in the picture at the moment are South Carolina and LSU.
That’s not to say that LSU can’t get there. It ranks No. 60 in KenPom which, historically, is around the range of a team that has an argument for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Through their first 14 games, the Tigers have been primarily lifted by transfers and freshman. Cam Carter (Kansas State via Mississippi State) has led the scoring charge, averaging 17.3 points per game. His three-point shooting has skyrocketed, as he’s shooting nearly 12 percentage points better than last season (30.9 to 42.5) on similar volume (5.6 three-point attempts/game to 6.2). The combo guard has registered double-digit points in all but one game this season; he’s also scored at least 20 points seven times, with his season-high resting at 26 in a win over Florida State on Dec. 3.
Following Carter in scoring is Jordan Sears (Tennessee-Martin via Gardner-Webb), who’s averaging almost 15 points per game this season. Averaging nearly 22 points per game last season for the Skyhawks, the 5-foot-11 Sears has looked extremely comfortable quarterbacking LSU’s offense amidst his transition from the OVC to the SEC. Down low, freshman Corey Chest has been a pleasant surprise for LSU. Although he stands at just 6-foot-8, Chest has been a menace on the glass, averaging just over eight rebounds per game.
LSU opened conference play with an 80-72 loss to Vanderbilt, and the road won’t get any easier, especially without Jalen Reed. The 6-foot-10 junior had started in each of LSU’s first eight games before suffering a season-ending torn ACL in his right knee against Florida State. Four of LSU’s next five games are on the road, including trips to No. 10 Texas A&M and No. 5 Alabama.
Every LSU head coach since Dale Brown, who took the Tigers to 13 NCAA Tournaments in 25 seasons from 1972-97, has made the Big Dance at least once. McMahon is no stranger to the tournament, having led Murray State there three times in his seven seasons with the Racers. However, especially considering the likely rocky road to get there, McMahon returning to March Madness doesn’t seem very likely.
3 Keys to the Game
Get Going from Long Range
Until Mizzou can eradicate its inconsistencies from three-point range, this key feels like it could be a mainstay in these previews.
So far, the national average for team three-point percentage sits at around 33.25%. Mizzou has shot below that mark in eight of its first 14 contests, including its last game against Auburn where the it started 2/16 from beyond the arc. While the Tigers have been able to remedy their three-point struggles in some games, it’s costed them in several other games as well. Auburn was able to build a comfortable lead in large part due to it knocking down nine of its first 15 attempts from three-point range.
As a team, LSU isn’t a great three-point shooting team, as they’ve shot 32.4% from beyond the arc. However, Sears and Carter are more than capable of lighting up opponents from downtown. If one or both of them does so, and Mizzou isn’t able to respond, the home Tigers could easily find themselves in trouble
Create Second-Chance Opportunities
On the surface, it may seem like one of LSU’s strengths is preventing its opponents from gaining extra possessions.
Its 28.6 defensive rebounds per game rank No. 19 nationally; however, its defensive rebounding percentage of 71.2 ranks No. 225 nationally. Mizzou, meanwhile, averages just 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, which ranks No. 198 nationally. But its 32.2% offensive rebounding percentage ranks No. 64 nationally.
Albeit an elementary statement, the home Tigers giving themselves extra chances to score would help a ton.
Get to the Free Throw Line
This hasn’t been an issue for Mizzou all season, as it remains at the top of free throw rate nationally.
However, should MU continue struggling from beyond the arc, supplementing the lost points with other means of scoring, such as free throws, will become necessary.
Game Prediction
My prediction: Missouri 75, LSU 67
Once again, easiness doesn’t exist in the SEC. LSU has quality contributors that’ve already gotten the Maravich Assembly Center up and rocking.
One matchup that will be particularly intriguing is Mark Mitchell and Corey Chest down low. However, I believe Mitchell will win that matchup, as will several other Midwest Tigers. A win would be Mizzou’s first against an SEC opponent since Mar. 10, 2023, when it defeated Tennessee in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals.
Tuesday seems like a ripe time to snap that streak. I believe Mizzou will do so and move to 12-3 on the season.