MBB Preview: Mizzou heads south for a rematch with Oklahoma

The Tigers took round one in dominant fashion, but winning on the road has proven incredibly difficult in the SEC.

In real-life, tigers are excellent swimmers.

However, whatever water the Commodores of Vanderbilt have been commanding this season drowned the cats from ol’ Mizzou on Saturday. The Tigers fell 97-93 in overtime, extending their losing streak in Nashville to three and costing themselves a chance at a double-bye in the SEC Tournament. Now, Mizzou will stay on the road, as it’ll make its first trip to Norman since 2014.

Lloyd Noble Center has recently drawn criticism for a lack of attendance, including from SEC Network host and OU alumni Dirk Nowkhah.

Even if those in Norman aren’t stormin’ to OU basketball games, winning on the road in the SEC has been a tall task this season. Four teams in the AP Top 25 have losing records on the road, including my hometown squad, No. 13 Maryland (4-5). The other three teams are from the SEC — Mizzou (3-6), No. 19 Kentucky (3-6) and No. 22 Texas A&M (4-5).

The Tigers have been able to pick up big-time road wins this season, but part of their weaknesses have lie in their ability to win away from Mizzou Arena, especially against teams behind them in the standings like Texas, Arkansas and Vanderbilt. Winning their last game away from home before postseason play starts would be ideal.

Missouri @ Oklahoma

When | 7:00 p.m. CT

Where | Lloyd Noble Center; Norman, Ok.

TV | SEC Network

Radio | Tiger Radio Network // Sirius/XM -119/199

ESPN win probability | 50.9% chance

The Starters

Mizzou (21-8, 10-7 SEC)

G: Anthony Robinson II (SO, 9.7 PPG)

G: Tamar Bates (SR, 13.3 PPG)

G: Tony Perkins (SR, 8.3 PPG)

F: Mark Mitchell (JR, 13.9 PPG)

F: Trent Pierce (SO, 7.2 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Caleb Grill (SR, 14.3 PPG)

Oklahoma (17-12, 4-12 SEC)

G: Jeremiah Fears (FR, 15.9 PPG)

G: Sam Godwin (SR, 6.3 PPG)

G: Brycen Goodine (SR, 8.3 PPG)

F: Duke Miles (SR, 10.1 PPG)

F: Jalon Moore (SR, 16.6 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Kobe Elvis (SR, 7.8 PPG)

Note: These starting lineups are projected.

Get to know Oklahoma: Derailing down the stretch (again)

For high-major teams, conference play isn’t supposed to be easy (unless you’re Duke, Louisville or Clemson, in which case conference play has been a cakewalk due to most of its competition tripping over themselves constantly).

Oklahoma has felt that feeling since head coach Porter Moser’s first season in 2021-22. If the regular season last just 15 games, the Sooners would be in business. Unfortunately for OU, that would be incredibly foolish, just like expanding the NCAA Tournament. When conference play has come around, Oklahoma’s struggles have just barely kept it out of the Big Dance.

However, a sentiment written in the Arkansas preview from a couple of weeks prior gives OU more hope than other bubble teams at this juncture of the season:

“Luckily for the Razorbacks and other SEC bubble inhabitants like Oklahoma and Georgia, their conference presents a unique advantage. Since there are so many elite teams in the SEC, that equals more opportunities for signature wins. In both college basketball and college football, quality wins are like platinum. Their weight is enough to both vault a team into the field or keep it out.”

Sure enough, the Hogs and Bulldogs have each given themselves a lot of breathing room since the last Saturday of February. Georgia knocked off Florida and Texas, while Arkansas also beat the Longhorns after toppling Mizzou. On the other hand, after snapping a five-game losing streak against Mississippi State, the Sooners lost by one to Kentucky and three to Ole Miss.

At some point, losing close to good teams isn’t going to cut it. A large enough volume of losses will keep several teams out of the tournament, even if they’ve played difficult schedules and/or defeated elite teams. It’s an issue that several teams in the Big Ten are facing, including Ohio State (16-13, 8-10 in-conference) and Nebraska (17-12, 7-11 in-conference). Both teams have numerous ranked wins, but those records being very close to .500 might be the difference between dancing in the NCAA Tournament versus the NIT.

For Oklahoma, its recent rough stretch has seen its defense struggle mightily, even as its offense has put up solid numbers as of late. Over OU’s past four games since getting bown out by Mizzou, Jeremiah Fears has averaged 20 points per game, and sharpshooter Brycen Goodine is 15/32 (46.9%) from three-point range. But the Sooners have allowed at least 80 points in seven of their last eight contests, including an 82-58 smackdown in Columbia on Feb. 12.

Oklahoma likely needs to beat Mizzou and win a couple of games in the SEC Tournament to feel comfortable about its NCAA Tournament hopes. If not, the Sooners could be among the First Four Out for the third time in four seasons. Yowza!

3 Keys to the Game

Get Mark going

When these two teams last met, Mark Mitchell couldn’t be contained. The junior big man finished with a career-high 25 points, which was bested a week later when he dropped 31 on Alabama. With Oklahoma diverting much of its attention to MU’s array of three-point shooters, it opened up the painted area for Mitchell, who scored all 25 of his points either from the paint or the free throw line.

“We just took what the defense gave us,” head coach Dennis Gates said on Tuesday.

However, ensuing opponents made adjustments, and Mitchell wasn’t as productive down low. The main switch? Sending extra defenders towards Mitchell. Against Arkansas and Vanderbilt, Mitchell committed 11 turnovers — six against the Hogs and five against the ‘Dores. When help was sent towards the big man, Mitchell was often stripped of the ball or made a pass that was intercepted. A lot of his success came when he was on an island against a defender; in recent games, that island has turned into an archipelago, and Mitchell hasn’t quite adjusted to the new inhabitants. Should Oklahoma do so on Wednesday, whether Mitchell counters with an adjustment of his own may play a part in swinging the game.

(For those who don’t remember middle school science, an archipelago is a group of islands clustered together. I totally didn’t write peninsula before the Internet corrected me.)

Rebound!

On Saturday, the shipmen left the sea for the skies, taking a page out of the Air Force’s book and finding a ton of success doing so.

Vanderbilt outrebounded Mizzou 37-23. It marked VU’s largest rebounding margin over a power conference team this season; conversely, it was MU’s largest rebounding loss of the season against any team. Additionally, the Commodores registered 18 offensive rebounds; the Tigers haven’t allowed that many in a game since Braggin’ Rights two seasons ago, where they also gave up 18 against Illinois.

“We’ve got to do a better job blocking out and pursuing the basketball. It’s just that simple,” Gates said. “Our guys were in a sort of midway point where they thought someone else would get it versus themselves.”

Oklahoma isn’t very good at rebounding, as only six power conference teams average fewer rebounds per game than the Sooners. But in the SEC, the road has seen extraordinary become ordinary. For Mizzou, the road has seen one of the best offenses in the sport go ice-cold and Arkansas give MU a taste of hell over the course of 40 minutes. The good news for the Tigers? They grabbed 52.4% of rebounds against OU in their first matchup.

Find Goodine

Just like his previous stop at Fairfield, the aforementioned Goodine has been one of the nation’s best three-point shooters. With the regular season winding down, Goodine is converting over 45% of his shots from beyond the arc on 4.6 attempts per game.

A few weeks ago, Goodine and Duke Miles each went 2-of-4 from three-point range; everyone else on OU shot 1-of-14. Mizzou was doing a superb job of closing out on shooters, and it helped them build a large lead. However, against Vanderbilt, the Tigers didn’t do so on the most important possession of the game. Even worse, the guy they left open was a 40% three-point shooter who’d canned seven triples in Vanderbilt’s previous game against Texas A&M.

At this point, the players and coaches have likely debriefed that play ad nauseum. The bounce-back from that defensive gaffe will have to wait until gametime.

Game Prediction

My prediction: Mizzou 83, Oklahoma 78

In almost every road game Mizzou has played so far this season, the Tigers have endured a rough stretch. Even against Georgia, a game in which MU won by 13, the Tigers trailed by three at halftime.

With that in consideration, a close game is probably. However, I believe the tides will turn back in favor of Mizzou, who will ride into Senior Day against Kentucky on a new wave of momentum.