The Bulldogs have lost some heartbreakers to juggernauts at home, is Mizzou going to add to that list?
Mizzou has had a dazzling start to SEC-play with wins at no. 5 Florida and versus then-no. 16 Ole Miss at home, with its only major blemish coming in an unranked road loss to Texas. Mississippi State, on the other hand, has had to go under a gauntlet. After an impressive non-conference showing which included a 33-point win over Quad 1 opponent Pitt, a convincing win over Top 20 Memphis, and just one loss, the no. 14 Bulldogs are 4-4 in SEC-play. Each of their losses have come to teams ranked no. 6 or higher at the time of defeat.
The Tigers are coming off a week-long rest while the Bulldogs are looking to avoid their third home loss of the season. Josh Hubbard has been one of the best players in the SEC this year and is coming off of a 38-point performance in a loss to Alabama and you’d best believe he will be looking for a taste of victory on Saturday.
Missouri @ Mississippi State
When | 12:00 p.m. CT
Where | Humphrey Coliseum; Starkville, Ms.
TV | SEC Network | ESPN+
Radio | Tiger Radio Network // Sirius/XM -119/199
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
ESPN win probability | 70.9% Chance
The Starters
No. 20 Mizzou (16-4, 5-2 SEC)
G: Anthony Robinson II (SO, 10.2 PPG)
G: Tamar Bates (SR, 13.4 PPG)
G: Tony Perkins (SR, 7.7 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (JR, 13.1 PPG)
F: Trent Pierce (SO, 8.3 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Caleb Grill (SR, 12.7 PPG)
No. 14 Mississippi State (16-5, 4-4 SEC)
G: Josh Hubbard (SO, 17.3 PPG)
G: Cameron Matthews (SR, 7.6 PPG)
G: Claudell Harris Jr. (SR, 10.6 PPG)
F: RJ Melendez (SR, 9.0 PPG)
C: KeShawn Murphy (JR, 10.8 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Riley Kugel (JR, 10.2 PPG)
Note: These starting lineups are projected.
Get to know Mississippi State: An offensive ticking time bomb
Chris Jans took over for the legendary Ben Howland just three years ago and is on track for his third tournament appearance in three seasons as coach, but this year has been a significant test for him since this was the first year almost all of his players had not played for Howland. Tournament-wise, the Bulldogs have not won an NCAA tournament game despite many appearances since 2008 and Jans thinks this year’s group is the team to break that curse.
The Bulldogs are slated to earn the no. 4 seed in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology which would almost certainly be a round-one victory (totally ignoring March Madness voodoo right now). The most impressive thing about these Bulldogs is how they hang with tough teams, with their only blowout loss coming against No. 1 Auburn (a fact that Mizzou can relate to).
Mississippi State is almost identical in defensive makeup to Ole Miss, as they pride themselves on their rim protection, but it creates disadvantages for them from the mid-range and (more importantly) beyond the arc. Boasting a top-25 near-proximity defense but not even a top-280 three-point defense is a situation that Mizzou will be looking to exploit, but the nightmares for this Bulldog squad start on the offense. Ranking 18th in efficiency, 14th in FGs attempted, and the glaring stat of being top-10 in quick second-chance points. People complain that the mid-range shot is a lost art in basketball and this Bulldog team does no favors to that philosophy, as they rank 271st in mid-range attempts.
Looking at Jans, his background comes from the junior college level which makes him a perfect fit for the current era of college basketball where players switch teams more frequently than not. Junior college practically invented college basketball roster turnover, so he was built for this job no matter what. Jans also had an impressive career at New Mexico State where had three tournament appearances in five years with 25+ wins in four of them. In his final season with the Aggies he picked up an upset win over 5-seed UConn before losing 53-48 to 4-seed Arkansas.
As for the roster, Josh Hubbard is obviously the player to look at as he’s a firecracker who averages over 17 points a game. He takes a staggering 16 three-pointers per 100 possessions, but coming off the bench, KeShawn Murphy is the Bulldogs’ most efficient option. Jans running a team that ran itself off of Tolu Smith prior to this year makes it the least bit surprising that his big is his most efficient player, topping the team in eFG% and dominating the glass. Cameron Matthews is also a player to look out for as he can provide a sneaky amount of production from the guard spot.
3 Keys to the Game
Kick it out!
This is another team like Arkansas and Ole Miss that leaves threes wide open and unlike Ole Miss, opponents also convert them at a high rate as well. Tamar Bates and Caleb Grill seemingly used up their shooting magic last game, so players like Trent Pierce and Jacob Crews cannot afford to have the inefficient nights they had against the Rebels or else the Tigers will be traveling home unhappy from Mississippi.
Protect the Rim
Landing themselves at 12th in near-proximity percentage, Josh Gray and Mark Mitchell are going to be essential to Mizzou tomorrow. Gray is going to have his hands full with Murphy and Hubbard driving to the basket, which means Mizzou’s help defense is going to have to be phenomenal. Teams frequently lose to the Bulldogs because they give up great looks to efficient bigs down low, and Mizzou is going to need to play tough to avoid the same fate.
Get Steals and Get Moving
Like Ole Miss, the Bulldogs are also very good at defending points off steals, and without momentum from steals and a raucous home crowd on their side, Mizzou is going to need to feed off of each other for energy. This team is at its best when it is stealing possessions from other teams and the Bulldogs are going to make sure that doesn’t happen. They have weaknesses with some potential weak passes to wings on quiet possessions, but Mizzou’s steal happy defenders are all on tape for Jans and Co.
My Prediction
Missouri 67, Mississippi State 76
The Hump is a very tough and inhospitable environment, and I envision the road crowd playing a big factor in this one. SEC road games are always tough, and this Bulldog team is extremely battle-tested to the point the Tigers likely will not really be intimidating to them. I predict one of Bates or Grill to have a tough shooting night as the Bulldogs will place emphasis on stopping them. I could easily see this game going the same way as the Arkansas and Ole Miss game did, but it would take a hot start from the Tigers.