The Tigers are well-equipped to surf this version of the Tide, but the boys from T-Town still present a litany of challenges.
On Wednesday, throwback night at Mizzou Arena might invoke some throwback feelings.
A win over No. 4 Alabama (plus another over Arkansas on Saturday) will launch Mizzou into an echelon that’s been sparsely visited by the Tigers this late in the season. Not only would the top 10 of the AP poll be within reach, but they’ll likely be held in the same regard as some of college basketball’s top teams.
It is a little odd, however, that MU’s throwback night will come against Alabama. The two teams have met just 22 times — 17 of them have come after Mizzou joined the SEC in 2012. That’s like if the St. Louis Blues had a throwback night against the Seattle Kraken, but I digress.
In honor of the vintage festivities, here’s an epic two-way sequence from Travon Bryant and Rickey Paulding at the 2001 Guardians Classic, where the Tigers toppled the Crimson Tide 75-68 in the semifinals before defeating Iowa in the championship.
Alabama @ Missouri
When | 8:00 p.m. CT
Where | Mizzou Arena; Columbia, Mo.
TV | SEC Network
Radio | Tiger Radio Network // Sirius/XM -119/199
ESPN win probability | 42.5% chance
The Starters
Mizzou (19-6, 8-4 SEC)
G: Anthony Robinson II (SO, 9.3 PPG)
G: Tamar Bates (SR, 13.4 PPG)
G: Tony Perkins (SR, 8.3 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (JR, 12.9 PPG)
F: Trent Pierce (SO, 7.4 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Caleb Grill (SR, 12.8 PPG)
Alabama (21-4, 10-2 SEC)
G: Mark Sears (SR, 17.8 PPG)
G: Chris Youngblood (SR, 9.6 PPG)
F: Jarin Stevenson (SO, 5.6 PPG)
F: Grant Nelson (SR, 12.6 PPG)
F: Clifford Omoruyi (SR, 7.1 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Labaron Philon (FR, 10.4 PPG)
Note: These starting lineups are projected.
Get to know Alabama: Certified basketball school
Under Bear Bryant and Nick Saban, Alabama football built itself into college football’s Evil Empire. The Crimson Tide went from a small wave to a tsunami that only fellow giants could conquer.
On the hardwood, a select few schools have ruled college basketball as well. UCLA, Duke, North Carolina, Saint Peter’s for 10 days in 2022 … the sport is used to consistent excellence. Alabama has experienced such, as the Crimson Tide were nationally relevant for almost all of the 1970s until the mid-1990s. They got back on track under Mark Gottfried in the early 2000s, making five consecutive NCAA Tournaments from 2002-06. But Alabama proceeded to fall off a small cliff, making the tournament just twice from 2007-2019.
Enter Nate Oats.
After helping turn Buffalo into a MAC powerhouse, Oats traveled south and has done the same with Alabama, who’s on the verge of achieving a top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament for the fourth time in five seasons. That would mark a first in program history, and the only other schools slated to achieve the same are Arizona, Baylor, Houston, Kansas, Purdue and Tennessee.
Last season, the Crimson Tide made the Final Four for the first time in program history, falling to eventual national champion and Earth-scorching buzzsaw UConn. Despite losing a pair of solid ancillary scorers in Aaron Estrada (graduation) and Rylan Griffen (Kansas), Alabama re-tooled exceptionally. They scored a pair of elite transfers in big man Clifford Omoruyi (Rutgers) and sharpshooter Aden Holloway (Auburn, still can’t believe that happened). They also landed four-star guard Labaron Philon, a projected first round pick in this year’s NBA Draft.
The Crimson Tide are piloted by Mark Sears, the All-American point guard who’s a familiar opponent for Dennis Gates. Sears has five times before — twice at Ohio when Gates coached Cleveland State and Sears played for the Bobcats and three times at Alabama against Mizzou. The do-it-all scorer is flanked by a diverse cast of characters., starting with Grant Nelson. He’s one of the top stretch bigs in the sport, attacking the rim and crashing the boards relentlessly. Nelson’s primary running mate in the frontcourt is Omoruyi, who’s helped shore up some of Alabama’s interior struggles on defense with solid rim protection. Jarin Stevenson has been a frontcourt mainstay as well, although he’s struggled producing in his sophomore season.
On the perimeter, Holloway is shooting 41.3% from beyond the arc, more than 11 percentage points better than last season. He’s been without fellow sniper Latrell Wrightsell for a large chunk of this season, as the fifth-year Nebraskan tore his ACL in December. While no one has been able to supplement his three-point prowess, Philon and Chris Youngblood have been able to score at a respectable clip. Youngblood took Philon’s spot in the starting lineup six games ago and has kept it ever since; he’s played fairly well recently, which included a 23-point performance against Mississippi State on Jan. 29.
Like years past, Alabama plays fast, shoots a ton of three-pointers and has the ability to sink opponents offensively. Defensively, the Crimson Tide … struggle a bit. Omoruyi has helped on that end — they’re No. 39 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric, a major improvement from last year’s standing of No. 111 — but they’re still allowing almost 80 points per game.
Alabama was the preseason favorite to win the SEC, and then Auburn turned into one of of the greatest college basketball teams of all-time. While the Crimson Tide haven’t taken the SEC throne like many thought they would, this is still an extremely dangerous team that’s capable of heading to San Antonio in a little over a month.
3 Keys to the Game
Rebound!
Mastering the glass has become a consistent key in these previews, and understandably so.
In eight of Mizzou’s 12 SEC contests, the Tigers outrebounded their opponent. Last game against Georgia, MU grabbed 17 offensive boards, its most against a power conference opponent since Jan. 10, 2017. Josh Gray and Mark Mitchell have been integral to Mizzou’s rebounding success, but its guards have been incredibly effective on the boards as well. They’re going to need their A-game on the glass once against on Wednesday, because Alabama rebounds the ball incredibly well.
The Crimson Tide lead the nation in total rebounds per game and are second in defensive rebounds per game, as extra offensive possessions have been quite limited for the opposition. This is where Mizzou would really like to make its long-range jumpers, as misses have been especially valuable for the Crimson Tide. They’re not only exceptional at grabbing misses, but they love to get out and run in transition, too. Long misses increase the possibility of that happening.
Mizzou has proven it can match up with elite rebounding teams — the most recent example came agains Texas A&M, when the Tigers dominated the Aggies in the second half. Doing so against Alabama is likely preferable.
Make Mark miss
While Sears’ production has remained high this season, his efficiency has taken a dip.
Through 25 games, he’s shooting 39.7% from the field and 34.5% from three-point range; those numbers are down 11.1 and 9.1 percentage points from last season, respectively. Last game against Auburn, Sears was put in a straitjacket, as he missed 13 of 17 shots from the field. His volume has remained high, as he’s averaging just over 12 field goal attempts per game.
Additionally, when Sears has struggled, Alabama has struggled, too. The Crimson Tide are 4-4 when he shoots under 35% from the field and 17-0 when he shoots better than 35%. He’ll face another difficult challenge on Wednesday, as Anthony Robinson II and Tony Perkins are sturdy defenders at the guard spot. Furthermore, MU’s personnel is extremely versatile; feigning for a switch likely won’t be fruitful for Sears and the rest of UA’s ball-handlers. This matchup is going to be incredibly intriguing.
Limit fouls
Similarly to Mizzou, Alabama has made a comfortable living at the charity stripe.
The Crimson Tide are No. 5 in free throw attempts and No. 7 in free throw makes. It’s not like they have one or two players that are single-handedly boosting those numbers; eight of Alabama’s 10 players that average at least 14 minutes per game have shot at least two free throws per game.
There’s a solid chance that the game’s runtime is slightly longer than average due to a high volume of free throws. Mizzou can prevent such a thing from happening by not fouling often.
Game Prediction
My prediction: Mizzou 78, Alabama 74
When judging the eliteness of a team, one criteria is how complete said team is.
Several of the sport’s top teams are above-average both offensively and defensively. Duke, Houston and Florida are in the top-10 of KenPom’s offensive and defensive efficiency metric. Auburn is top-15 in both, and a big reason why Maryland is a legitimate dark horse to make a run in March is because the turtles are top-20 in both metrics as well.
Neither Alabama nor Mizzou are a part of those groups. Both are better offensively than defensively; however, while the Crimson Tide may have the edge on offense, the Tigers do on defense. Even so, Mizzou has the personnel to expose Alabama where it’s still somewhat weak, and that’s around the basket.
As snow covers the ground in mid-Missouri, it will be joy that covers Mizzou Arena on Wednesday night.