Mizzou’s SEC rivals are coming to CoMo again, and the Tigers have all the momentum while the Razorbacks do not.
The Arkansas Razorbacks are 0-4 in SEC play with an 11-6 record, they currently stand as the first team out in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology. Yes, you read that right. That is how deep this conference is, which means the Missouri Tigers can’t afford to lower their guard when hosting the Razorbacks this Saturday.
Mizzou comes into this game at 14-3 and a 3-1 record in conference play, with all three losses coming to teams currently ranked in the Top 25 and two wins over top-five opponents. Home games are an extremely valuable commodity in a conference this deep and filled with raucous home environments, and Mizzou Arena is likely going to play a huge factor in this one. A win, would mean a 15-3 record and an almost guaranteed spot in the polls for the Tigers.
Arkansas @ Missouri
When | 5:00 p.m. CT
Where | Columbia, Mo.
TV | SEC Network | ESPN+
Radio | Tiger Radio Network // Sirius/XM -119/199
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
ESPN win probability | 66.3% Chance
The Starters
Mizzou (14-3, 3-1 SEC)
G: Anthony Robinson II (SO, 10.7 PPG)
G: Tamar Bates (SR, 12.8 PPG)
G: Tony Perkins (SR, 7.7 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (JR, 13.6 PPG)
F: Trent Pierce (SO, 8.3 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Caleb Grill (SR, 12.2 PPG)
Arkansas (11-6, 0-4 SEC)
G: DJ Wagner (SO, 10.4 PPG)
G: Boogie Fland (FR, 15.7 PPG)
F: Jonas Aidoo (SR, 6.6 PPG)
F: Adou Thiero (SO, 16.7 PPG)
F: Karter Knox (FR, 6.2 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Johnell Davis (SR, 8.7 PPG)
Note: These starting lineups are projected.
Get to know Arkansas: A talented team loaded with inexperience
Arkansas’ usual starting lineup is home to four underclassmen. That is one of, if not the most, of any starting lineup in the SEC. Heading this young charge, is legendary coach John Calipari who rose to stardom at UMass, gifting them their first tournament bid in over 30 years. In 1996, Calipari’s Minutemen went on a magical run to the final four, a run which led him to trying his luck in the NBA.
After his NBA experiment failed Calipari signed on at Memphis, and then with Kentucky where he had a largely successful 15 year run, including one National Championship. Cal’s run in Lexington ended and he parachuted into Fayetteville. This was no hyperbole either, just 9% of the minutes share and points share are returning from last season which are at the bottom of the conference.
Calipari brought in high-flying freshmen Boogie Fland, Karter Knox, and Billy Richmond this year and it is Fland who has had the largest impact. Fland is averaging 15.7 points per game and has been one of the best freshmen in the country, while Kentucky transfers Adou Thiero and D.J. Wagner have been leaders on Cal’s team. I haven’t even mentioned Florida Atlantic transfer Johnell Davis, who famously led the Owls to a final four.
It’s a lot of firepower with an all-time coach, so why are these Razorbacks 0-4 in conference play with a bad loss to LSU already on their docket? Calipari’s teams seldomly have depth, with his usual eight-man rotation being a regular at Arkansas and in a conference like this years SEC the fatigue that comes with high minutes going to underclassmen against experienced teams with depth, it’s a disaster waiting to happen. Nonetheless this isn’t your average 0-4 team, they picked up a big win over No. 14 Michigan and suffered two losses to ranked teams in the non-con.
Arkansas’ defensive efficiency sits at 49th in Haslametrics.com, which is shocking considering how defense was pretty much Cal’s calling card at Kentucky. Funnily enough though, towards the end of his tenure the defensive prowess seemed to twiddle away and so did the likelihood of him staying in Lexington. Those same woes have been brought to Fayetteville thus far.
3 Keys to the Game
Manipulate the Inside
Arkansas is one of the worst teams in the SEC at allowing near-proximity shot attempts, ranking 166th in the Haslametrics. They have rim protectors like Aidoo and Knox, but the reality is they just haven’t been the defenders they were expected to be this year and the entire roster isn’t good at defending on the drive. Look for players like Anthony Robinson and Tamar Bates to try and have their way with the Razorback wings in the offensive zone.
Get to the Foul Line
It wins games. It will always win games, and it was crucial in their win against Florida. Despite some efficiency issues against Florida, the sheer volume Mizzou was able to pick up was just enough for the victory. Arkansas ranks 108th in opponent free-throw attempt rate, leaving the door open for foul opportunities for Mizzou’s physical guards and Mark Mitchell who will be looking to attack just the way he did against Florida.
Kick it out!
Arkansas is 210th in opponent three-point attempt rate, and it is because they have a tendency to lose men on the perimeter on the drive. They have lost to mostly tough opponents, but all but one of them had at least one player who hit four or more threes against the Razorbacks. Sometimes players get hot, but when opposing players get hot that often it is something to exploit and Caleb Grill is exactly the person you look to to do that.
Game Prediction
My prediction: Mizzou 75, Arkansas 62
I think Mizzou might get off to a sluggish start because Cal will have these Razorbacks fired up for a road rivalry game, but I do think the Tigers will shrug it off and ride the home crowd to a nice victory. I think this is a game where Anthony Robinson flourishes on the drive, and he might get more assists than people are used to him getting. Free throw efficiency will be key, LSU hit 26-28 to sink the Razorbacks by four in their latest game, including Cam Carter going 10-10 from the line.