This collection of Gator meat is a lot more difficult to cook.
Through Mizzou’s first three SEC contests, the Tigers have performed up to the expectation of many outsiders.
A road beatdown at the hands of Auburn was followed by two solid home wins over LSU and Vanderbilt. Now, Mizzou will head to the Sunshine State for a battle with Florida, whom the Tigers haven’t beaten since Mar. 2021.
That game featured a game-winning reverse layup by Dru Smith with 0.7 seconds left in regulation; 12 days later, Mizzou’s NCAA Tournament dreams came true, as the Tigers earned the No. 9 seed in the West region (although they ultimately fell to No. 8 Oklahoma). Florida also made the Big Dance, securing the No. 7 seed in the South Region, where they would get upset by No. 15 Oral Roberts in the Round of 32.
This year is similar in that both teams have NCAA Tournament aspirations, although their projections aren’t nearly as similar as they were four years ago. The Tigers are living life on the bubble, while the Gators are sitting pretty amongst the nation’s top teams.
Missouri @ Florida
When | 8:00 p.m. CT
Where | Stephen C. O’Connell Center; Gainesville, Fl.
TV | ESPNU I SEC Network+
Radio | Tiger Radio Network // Sirius/XM -119/199
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
ESPN win probability | 19.1% chance
The Starters
Mizzou (13-3, 2-1 SEC)
G: Anthony Robinson II (SO, 10.6 PPG)
G: Tamar Bates (SR, 13.0 PPG)
G: Tony Perkins (SR, 8.0 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (JR, 13.5 PPG)
F: Trent Pierce (SO, 8.4 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Josh Gray (SR, 2.5 PPG)
Florida (15-1, 2-1 SEC)
G: Walter Clayton Jr. (SR, 17.2 PPG)
G: Alijah Martin (SR, 15.9 PPG)
G: Will Richard (SR, 13.3 PPG)
F: Alex Condon (SO, 11.0 PPG)
F: Rueben Chinyelu (SO, 5.3 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Thomas Haugh (JR, 7.4 PPG)
Note: These starting lineups are projected.
Get to know Florida: These Gators are dangerous!
While college basketball is still in its early days of conference play, it’s not hyperbole to think that this might be the best Florida team since the end of Billy Donovan’s tenure. The Gators were pretty darn good in 2016-17 under Mike White, going 27-9 en route to a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
But this year’s squad has a legitimate shot at a No. 1 seed, which the Gators last achieved in 2013-14. After losing to Colorado on a last-second shot in the Round of 64 last season, Florida didn’t completely overhaul its roster in the offseason. The Gators did bring in a trio of transfers, all of whom have contributed significantly so far. Alijah Martin (Florida Atlantic) has been one of the most productive combo guards in the nation. Rueben Chinyelu (Washington State) has been a one-man wrecking ball on the interior, and Sam Alexis (Chattanooga) has provided solid rotational minutes at the forward spot as an inside scorer and rebounder.
However, a large chunk of Florida’s danger lies in its returners. Walter Clayton Jr. has turned himself into a legitimate Wooden Award candidate, able to score and pass from all three levels on offense. Alex Condon has built upon a solid freshman campaign nicely; the 6-foot-11 Aussie has become a lethal scorer from the post as well as an excellent rebounder (at least eight rebounds in 12 of 16 games thus far). Will Richard, an explosive senior forward, has remained one of UF’s top scorers and has at least two steals in 12 of 16 games thus far. Off the bench, Denzel Aberdeen has backed up Clayton at point guard nicely, while Thomas Haugh has provided valuable minutes at forward.
The Gators have a stellar resume thus far. They rolled through non-conference play, including a 17-point rout of tournament-hopeful Arizona State in the Jumpman Invitational. Their only close call came against North Carolina three days after smashing the Sun Devils, surviving a second-half comeback from the Tar Heels to take a 90-84 victory.
Florida’s only blemish is a 106-100 shootout loss to Kentucky on the road. The bounce-back was strong, as the Gators blew the doors off of Tennessee, who couldn’t throw a chair off of a bar rooftop if they tried (I know that’s Nashville, which is about three hours away from Knoxville, but it’s still Tennessee!). Its last game was a 71-63 win over Arkansas in Fayetteville, a game in which the Hogs shot a porous 18/60 from the field and 2/16 on layups, a number that John Calipari refused to believe was true after the game.
There’s not much Florida struggles with. Todd Golden’s crew is elite at scoring, defense and rebounding. Their personnel is skilled, versatile and experienced. The Tigers will, in all likelihood, have to play their most complete game of the season in order to exit the Sunshine State with a massive victory.
3 Keys to the Game
Attack the basket
Led by Chinyelu, Florida’s interior defense is exceptional, as opponents are shooting just 42.8% from two-point range, which ranks No. 8 nationally.
Despite the lack of production UF has allowed inside, there’s a crack that Mizzou can potentially expose. Florida’s bigs have a tendency to foul…a lot. Chinyelu, Alexis, and Haugh each average around five fouls per 40 minutes, which is not ideal for the Gators. The issue popped up against Arkansas; along with Martin, Chinyelu and Alexis fouled out against the Razorbacks in just 20 and 22 minutes of action, respectively. Arkansas shot 35 free throws, 10 more than Florida had allowed to any team in its previous 15 games.
On the other side, Mizzou has generated a historic amount of opportunities from the free throw line. Per BartTorvik, its free throw rate is 51.1, which trails only Winthrop (52.6) for the national lead. The last team to finish with a free throw rate above 50 was Texas A&M Corpus-Christi in 2014-15 with 51.
Especially if Mizzou struggles from the three-point line (Florida ranks No. 3 nationally in opponent three-point percentage), getting to the charity stripe will once again be paramount for success on offense.
Rebound!
Besides being awesome at scoring and not letting the other team score, Florida is also arguably the best rebounding team in college basketball. The Gators lead the nation in rebounds per game (46.1) and are tied with Illinois for the national lead in rebound percentage (59.7%). UF is especially elite at cleaning up its own misses, as the Gators are No. 3 in offensive rebound percentage. Condon and Chinyelu combine for almost 16 rebounds per game, while Martin is one of the better rebounding guards in the country, averaging almost six boards per game.
Last season, Florida and Mizzou met twice, and the Gators dominated the glass each time. However, MU’s personnel this time around is much bigger and more athletic than last season’s group, who was one of the worst rebounding teams in college basketball. Transfers like Josh Gray (5.3 rebounds per game) and Mark Mitchell (4.8 rebounds per game) have helped turn the Tigers from a terrible rebounding team (No. 345 in rebound percentage last season) to an average one (No. 113 this season).
There’s still a good chance Florida not only wins the rebounding battle, but by a healthy margin, too. But if Mizzou can keep the gap on the glass close, that’ll likely stand to benefit them greatly.
Win the turnover battle
Since the 2021-22 season, the Tigers are 8-22 when they commit at least 14 turnovers. This season, they’re 2-2; the only anomaly is the Illinois game in which Mizzou lost despite winning the turnover battle 16-8.
Florida isn’t elite at taking care of the ball and turning other teams over, but it isn’t bad; the Gators are No. 42 in turnover percentage and No. 155 in opponent turnover percentage.
Recent history, however, says that Mizzou doesn’t fare well when it turns the ball over frequently. Not giving an already-dangerous Florida offense extra possessions would also be a great help to MU as well.
Game Prediction
My prediction: Florida 84, Mizzou 69
As stated previously, Mizzou matches up with Florida far better than last season.
But the Gators have been playing like a national championship-caliber team for most of this season; the Tigers don’t seem quite there yet. While an upset win in Gainesville isn’t out of the cards by any means, Florida presents plenty of challenges that will be difficult for Mizzou to overcome.