The Commodores, like everyone else in the SEC, started off with a successful non-conference slate and are 1-1 in SEC Play.
The Missouri Tigers are coming off a dominant win against the LSU Tigers in which they led for the near entirety of the game, and are now 1-1 in conference play. Mizzou was favored in that game, and they will be in their next tilt as well.
Ahead lies a big opportunity for the Tigers to at least somewhat establish themselves in the top-half of the SEC, as they host the Vanderbilt Commodores (13-2, 1-1 Southeastern). Both teams sit at 1-1 in conference play, and with five 2-0 teams, six 1-1 teams, and five 0-2 teams the SEC is about as even as it gets.
Nevertheless, the Tigers have a chance to get above .500 in SEC-play ahead of a crucial road matchup against another team with National Championship aspirations, the Florida Gators. The magnitude of that matchup will be heightened, if the Tigers can defend home court against Mark Byington, the first-year head coach of Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt @ Missouri
When | 2:30 PM CST
Where | Mizzou Arena; Columbia, Mo.
TV | SEC Network
Radio | Tiger Radio Network // Sirius/XM -119/199
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
ESPN win probability | 66.2% MIZ Chance to Win
The Starters
Mizzou (12-3, 1-1 SEC)
G: Anthony Robinson II (SO, 10.3 PPG)
G: Tamar Bates (SR, 13.1 PPG)
G: Tony Perkins (SR, 8.2 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (JR, 13.1 PPG)
C: Josh Gray (SR, 2.7 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Caleb Grill (SR, 11.1 PPG)
Vanderbilt (13-2, 1-1 SEC)
G: AJ Hoggard (SR, 11.1 PPG)
G: Tyler Nickel (SR, 10.1 PPG)
G: Grant Huffman (SR, 5.5 PPG)
G: Chris Manon (SR, 4.7 PPG)
F: Devin McGlockton (JR, 11.2 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Jason Edwards (Injured but could play) (JR, 17.1 PPG)
Note: These starting lineups are projected.
Get to know Vanderbilt: The SEC’s newest spark plug
Just like Mizzou, Vanderbilt sits uncomfortably as one of Joe Lunardi’s last four teams in the tournament in his latest bracketology. Thanks to that, this game might have a little more marbles involved than your average SEC-game (hard to believe, I know) as both teams are playing for a leg up in conversations in March.
Mark Byington is in his first season as Vanderbilt head coach and he received high praise from Mississippi State head coach Chris Jans:
“Coach Byington’s done a tremendous job coming out of the gate first year and all new team for the most part and what they’ve done thus far has been very impressive,” Jans said. “They were very impressive on tape. We knew we’d have to beat them, that’s what we kept talking about in their timeouts ‘they’re not going away’ don’t hold on, go take it from them, keep playing and keep being aggressive.”
SEC play has just begun, and a whopping 14 out of the 16 teams in the conference are in the tournament conversation, with just South Carolina and LSU not being included at the moment. Vanderbilt has not made the NCAA Tournament since the 2016-17 season when a Bryce Drew-led (now coaching the high-flyers of the WAC Grand Canyon) Commodore team lost in the first round of the tournament.
Byington was hired by Vanderbilt after a stellar season with James Madison last season that saw the Dukes go 32-4, earning the 12-seed in the tournament. On top of that, they pulled off a first-round upset against fifth-seeded Wisconsin before getting swiftly escorted out of the tournament by Duke. The season was enough for Byington to land the Vanderbilt job, after his first 10 seasons as a head coach (seven with Georgia Southern and three with JMU) came with no tournament cigar. Overall in his D1 career, Byington 236-135 but he is staggeringly 45-6 in the last two seasons.
The Commodores are led by North Texas transfer Jason Edwards, whose illustrious game that was showcased in the AAC last season has translated to the SEC as his points-per-game has just dipped by two points since joining the toughest conference in the country. The Commodores had to operate without Edwards for the majority of their 12-point loss to No. 14 Mississippi State, as he picked up what was described as a “lower-body injury” in their first conference game of the season. His availability for this game is unclear and will be more clear with the release of the SEC injury report tonight.
When looking at who will step up for Vanderbilt in his absence, look no further than AJ Hoggard and Devin McGlockton, as their high-low game was a focal point in their game against Miss State. Hoggard picked up 18 points in that game, showing that he can take on the mantle as lead ball handler if needed. McGlockton hasn’t produced the way Vanderbilt wants him to in conference play yet, as his 6.5 point-per-game average in conference play is a significant dip from the non-con, but stats say he’s due for a big game.
Vanderbilt looks poised for a tournament run, with the health of Edwards being an important factor of whether they can get there. It seems that Mark Byington has figured out a winning formula in college basketball, and the Tigers need to stay vigilant because Vanderbilt can score in a hurry.
3 Keys to the Game
Score in the Paint
Teams that have beaten Vanderbilt so far (Drake and Mississippi State) have done a tremendous job of scoring in the paint. The Commodores have been outscored in the paint 90-70 in their two losses, and have not lost the battle in the paint in all 13 of their wins this season. Players like Tamar Bates and Anthony Robinson need to get downhill and get downhill with strength, in order to get tough points in the paint. Vanderbilt defends the paint pretty well, as that is a focal point of their game.
Get to the Free Throw Line
This might just be a key to the game in every game this season, but it is for good reason. When the Tigers excel in the free-throw battle, they win games. It buys time, it gets easy non-defendable points. Vanderbilt has not faced a team that draws fouls at as high of a rate as Mizzou yet, and Mizzou needs to be in full force at drawing contact tomorrow.
No Range No Change
This team needs to hit threes, they hit 12 against LSU and were able to curtail any chance LSU had of getting into the game. Threes are the best way to extend leads and strike down momentum, and the Tigers need Caleb Grill, Marques Warrick, Jacob Crews, and Tamar Bates to deliver. When they get hot, they get hot and they can take away a game from a team. It will likely be a dogfight, and for a dogfight you need some shots to fall.
Game Prediction
My prediction: Missouri 86, Vanderbilt 77
I think this game is going to be a high-scoring barn burner. I don’t like the defensive matchups for Mizzou but then again, I really like the offensive matchups. I don’t think Vandy’s guards are athletic enough to defend guys like Bates and Mark Mitchell, and its evidenced by them being KenPom’s 79th ranked defensive team. Caleb Grill is bound for a huge game, and I think this is one where he shows out in front of the home crowd. The health of Edwards is key for Vanderbilt in this game, if he is healthy it changes the outlook at a seismic level.