MBB Preview: Oklahoma rekindles another old Big 8 rivalry

It’s Sooners-Tigers, just like the good ol’ days.

“The Oklahoma Sooners were supposed to be in this game. Throughout the tournament, they’ve played up to their billing. For Quin Snyder’s Missouri Tigers, the second season has given them a second lease on life, and they’ve taken full advantage of the situation.”

Those words, uttered by the great Gus Johnson, were a preface. The game ahead was to be the most important hoops battle between the Sooners and Tigers to date. Mizzou, the No. 12 seed in the West, had already made history by becoming the lowest seed to ever reach the Elite Eight. Unfortunately for the Tigers, the last chapter of their Cinderella story came in San Jose, as they fell to OU 81-75.

That wouldn’t be the last time the two would meet in the Big Dance, as Oklahoma triumphed over Mizzou again in the opening round of the 2021 tourney. Almost 23 years after the Elite Eight matchup, neither Mizzou and Oklahoma were supposed to be here, competing in the SEC instead of the Big 12. But when money talks, people usually listen!

After dropping consecutive games for the first time all season, the Tigers will look to get back on track in a home bout with the Sooners, who haven’t visited Columbia since Jan. 2012. Mizzou smashed Oklahoma 87-49 in that contest; while a blowout of epic proportions isn’t likely this time around, MU has what it takes to knock off the Sooners for the sixth straight time at Mizzou Arena.

Oklahoma @ Missouri

When | 8:00 p.m. CT

Where | Mizzou Arena; Columbia, Mo.

TV | SEC Network

Radio | Tiger Radio Network // Sirius/XM -119/199

ESPN win probability | 69.6% chance

The Starters

Mizzou (17-6, 6-4 SEC)

G: Anthony Robinson II (SO, 9.0 PPG)

G: Tamar Bates (SR, 14.0 PPG)

G: Tony Perkins (SR, 8.1 PPG)

F: Mark Mitchell (JR, 12.3 PPG)

F: Trent Pierce (SO, 7.7 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Caleb Grill (SR, 12.6 PPG)

Oklahoma (16-7, 3-7 SEC)

G: Duke Miles (SR, 14.2 PPG)

G: Jeremiah Fears (FR, 15.5 PPG)

G: Brycen Goodine (GR, 8.3 PPG)

F: Jalon Moore (SR, 17.7 PPG)

F: Sam Godwin (GR, 5.7 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Kobe Elvis (GR, 8.1 PPG)

Note: These starting lineups are projected.

Get to know Oklahoma: The eternal bubble boys of college basketball

Oklahoma has experienced multiple extensive stretches of success over the past few decades. They missed the Big Dance just once from 1981-1992, just twice from 1994-2009 and twice from 2012-2021.

However, the post-COVID stretch hasn’t treated the Sooners nearly as well. They haven’t been back to the tournament since 2021; even worse, they’ve come excruciatingly close to the field, only to get denied in the end. OU was among the selection committee’s First Four Out in both 2022 and 2024; this season, the Sooners are on the verge of the bubble once again. According to The Bracket Matrix, which compiles 88 bracket projections from across the Internet, Oklahoma’s average seed is 9.22. A couple of wins will pad its cushion, but OU’s tournament chances are far from guaranteed.

Should the Sooners tumble all the way out of the field, it would be an unfortunate end to what was a promising campaign in year four under Porter Moser. Oklahoma went a glistening 13-0 in non-conference play, which included neutral-site wins over Arizona, Louisville and Michigan. Then, SEC play started, and momentum slowed quite a bit. The class of the conference has largely beaten up on the Sooners, as they dropped games against Alabama, Auburn and Tennessee by 28, 28 and 18 points, respectively. However, they did beat Vanderbilt by 30 and South Carolina by 20; their lone Quad 1 win at the moment came on Jan. 25, a 65-62 victory on the road against Arkansas.

Oklahoma boasts a handful of elite offensive weapons. Freshman star Jeremiah Fears has helped pace the Sooners with a crafty handle and frequent attacks of the basket. He’s also a creative finisher around the rim, as he possesses elite ambidexterity and body control. As a side note, Fears should be a senior in high school right now, as he graduated early from AZ Compass Prep. He was born on Oct. 14, 2006, which makes me want to throw up.

“He’s supposed to be at Men’s Warehouse getting a tuxedo for his prom,” Mizzou head coach Dennis Gates said.

OU’s leading scorer, however, isn’t the projected lottery pick in this year’s NBA Draft. That would be Jalon Moore, as the senior forward is averaging almost 18 points per game. The Sooners also have an array of elite three-point shooters, as Moore, Brycen Goodine and Duke Miles are each shooting at least 44% from beyond the arc on at least three attempts per game.

This Oklahoma squad is nowhere near the level of the ones that’ve reached the summit of college basketball. While neither of Blake Griffin, Buddy Hield nor Stacey King are suiting up for the Crimson & Cream, the Sooners still sport a formidable squad that will hope to finally dance in March.

3 Keys to the Game

Rebound!

One area in which Oklahoma has really struggled this season is rebounding. The Sooners average just 31.9 rebounds per game (333rd) and just 8.5 offensive rebounds per game (326th). They’ve been outrebounded by at least 20 on three separate occasions this season; Nov. 29 against Louisville (42-21), Jan. 4 against Alabama (46-24) and Jan. 28 against Texas A&M (44-18. That is not a typo.).

Mizzou can certainly create an advantage in this department; however, a main key for the Tigers won’t just be creating second-chance opportunities, but converting them. Last game, for example, they had the same number of offensive rebounds as Texas A&M (11), but the Aggies converting nine more second-chance points (18-9), although Gates believes that the stat is flawed. For example, second-chance points only count field goals made on the possession immediately following an offensive rebound — free throws made after foul calls on the same possession don’t count.

“I don’t think all of it at the end of the day gives you the full gambit of second chance points,” Gates said.

Regardless of opinion, the Tigers would benefit from converting more often following offensive rebounds.

Close out!

As mentioned previously, Oklahoma has a few elite shooters in its holster.

One of them is Goodine, who’s at his fourth school in six seasons — he started at Syracuse, then went east to Providence, then went south to Fairfield. Goodine has been in college for so long that this past Friday was the fifth anniversary of his game-winning putback against Wake Forest. His first collegiate game was against Mamadi Diakite and Braxton Key.

During his extensive tenure at the college ranks, Goodine has developed into one of the sport’s most lethal snipers from beyond the arc. That included the aforementioned contest against Texas A&M, which saw Goodine convert nine of 11 three-pointers.

Most of Goodine’s production comes from spotting up behind the three-point line, which means closing out on his catches will be paramount for Mizzou.

Capitalize in transition

There’s a good chance that the Tigers find themselves on a litany of fastbreaks against Oklahoma. One reason for that belief lies in Mizzou’s ability to generate turnovers — the Tigers come away with 14.6 takeaways per game, a top-40 mark nationally.

The other reason is that the Sooners have a turnover machine of their own in Fears. He rocks an upside-down headband like Ole Miss’ Sean Pedulla, and while Fears doesn’t do upside down cartwheels like the flipped Air Jordan logo on his head might suggest, he’s turned games upside down with his lack of ball security. Through 23 games, Fears has 84 turnovers, good for 3.65 per game. He’s had multiple giveaways in every single game and has registered at least five turnovers in seven contests.

However, even if Fears does commit a few turnovers, the Tigers might run into an issue. A large chunk of his turnovers are of the dead-ball variety; conversely, it’s live-ball turnovers (steals, for example) that create transition opportunities. Mizzou is going to have to buck Fears’ turnover trend if it wants to get out and run.

Game Prediction

My prediction: Mizzou 83, Oklahoma 70

For Mizzou, Wednesday marks the beginning of what should be an easier stretch of contests comparatively to the rest of the SEC — on paper, at least.

The Tigers get Oklahoma twice, South Carolina, Georgia and Vanderbilt, although the latter two games are on the road. The path to achieving a top-four seed in both the SEC and NCAA Tournament is clearer than one might expect, and a new beginning could materialize against the Sooners.

OU presents several challenges, especially offensively. But Mizzou has played like a more complete team all season long, and I expect that to show up on Wednesday.