A win over No. 4 Tennessee on Wednesday could catapult the Tigers into rare air.
Every season, a handful of teams surpass preseason expectations and end up in the upper-echelon of college basketball.
This year has been no different. Michigan State, St. John’s and Texas Tech are currently in the AP top 15 after starting the season unranked. Memphis and Maryland have also vaulted into the top 20 after starting the season without a number next to their name.
But that club added another member this week in Mizzou, who checked in at No. 15 in Monday’s AP poll after a 27-point bludgeoning of Mississippi State on Saturday. It marks just the fourth time this century that the Tigers have been ranked in the top 15 of a February AP poll (2021, 2012 and 2009).
From the outside, it’s been an unexpectedly awesome campaign for Mizzou. The Tigers are nationally strong on both sides of the ball; per BartTorvik, they have the No. 1 offense and No. 9 defense since the LSU game on Jan. 7. They’re 4-1 against AP-ranked opponents, and they’ve already positioned themselves to receive a bye in the SEC Tournament. A win over Tennessee could blow the top even harder off of what many originally thought was possible of MU before the season started.
Missouri @ Tennessee
When | 6:00 p.m. CT
Where | Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center; Knoxville, Tn.
TV | SEC Network | ESPN+
Radio | Tiger Radio Network // Sirius/XM -119/199
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
ESPN win probability | 16.9% Chance
The Starters
No. 20 Mizzou (17-4, 6-2 SEC)
G: Anthony Robinson II (SO, 9.9 PPG)
G: Tamar Bates (SR, 13.5 PPG)
G: Tony Perkins (SR, 7.7 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (JR, 12.8 PPG)
F: Trent Pierce (SO, 8.4 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Caleb Grill (SR, 13.2 PPG)
No. 8 Tennessee (18-4, 5-4 SEC)
G: Zakai Zeigler (SO, 12.3 PPG)
G: Chaz Lanier (SR, 17.9 PPG)
G: Igor Milicic (SR, 10.4 PPG)
F: Jahmai Mashack (SR, 6.0 PPG)
C: Felix Okpara (JR, 7.4 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Jordan Gainey (SR, 11.0 PPG)
Note: These starting lineups are projected.
Get to know Tennessee: Still pretty darn good!
Over the past six NCAA Tournaments, Tennessee has appeared in each one. The Vols have also been one of the best teams in the sport since then; their 189 wins since 2017 are No. 9 in college basketball. Despite the consistent regular season success, however, UT hasn’t been able to truly break through in the Big Dance.
The Vols have been a 5-seed or higher in each tournament since the 2017-18 season, yet haven’t made the Final Four. Here’s the list of other teams in that group:
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Uh, hello?
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Oh, that’s it.
The only other team who was a part of a group entering last season was Purdue, but the Boilermakers finally broke through and made the national title game. Part of their path to Glendale was eliminating Tennessee in the Sweet 16 for the second time in five seasons, although that game wasn’t nearly as instant classic-y as the 2019 edition. It continued an odd trend that’d dated back to 2018: three teams that defeated Tennessee went on to make the Final Four — 2024 Purdue, 2023 Florida Atlantic and 2018 Loyola (IL). Oregon State also made the Elite Eight in 2021 after upsetting the Vols in the Round of 64.
This year, Tennessee once again has the team to break through. Halfway through SEC play, the Vols have put together an impressive resume. In the non-conference slate, they dominated Louisville on the road and Baylor on a neutral site while also knocking off Illinois at the buzzer. In conference play, they’ve dominated Arkansas, Georgia and Mississippi State. Last game, they thumped Florida by 20 despite being without two starters in Zakai Zeigler and Igor Milicic, avenging a 30-point drubbing to the Gators on Jan. 7.
Per usual under Rick Barnes, the Vols are stifling on defense. Lead by Jahmai Mashack and Felix Okpara, they protect the rim at an elite level. Tennessee also limits open three-point attempts, too. They’re allowing the third-fewest points per game in the nation (58.6) and are holding opponents to a paltry 27% clip from three-point range and 36.1% from the field. Here’s the list of teams allowing a lower percentage from either the field or beyond the arc:
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Hello?
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Yep, that’s it, although I’d say Tennessee is happy being alone in this category.
Personnel-wise, Barnes goes nine-deep in Tennessee’s rotation. It’s an experienced group, as six of those nine players have at least four years of college hoops experience under their belt. The Vols have rolled with the same starting five for every game except last, as Zeigler missed it with a sprained knee, while Milicic came down with the flu. Zeigler told The Food City Locker Room that he intends to play on Wednesday. Although the Vols were able to dominate Florida without their floor general and 6-foot-10 do-it-all guard, their return will sure be welcome by UT has it tries to keep momentum going on Wednesday.
3 Keys to the Game
Contest the three-ball
While Tennessee hasn’t lost too much this season, there’s been a common theme in those defeats.
In each of UT’s four losses, they’ve shot less than 35% from the field. The only time they won while shooting that poorly was against Illinois, when Jordan Gainey saved the Vols on a buzzer-beating layup. Additionally, Tennessee has registered three games where it’s shot worse than 25% from beyond the arc — the Volunteers lost all three.
It’s not like Tennessee is completely devoid of a capable three-point shooters. Chaz Lanier, who transferred from North Florida over the offseason, is shooting 42.2% from beyond the arc on almost nine attempts per game. But outside of Lanier, the Vols don’t have another strong marksman. The other five players that have attempted at least 30 three-pointers this season — Zeigler, Gainey, Milicic, Mashack and Darlinstone Dubar — have shot just 29% from downtown.
Defensive lapses have been minimal this season for Mizzou, and Tennessee has shot itself out of several games so far this season. But should the Tigers be able to contest the Vols on looks from beyond the arc, there’s a good chance UT could shoot itself out of another contest on Wednesday.
Don’t let Zakai fly
Offense hasn’t been a major problem area for Tennessee, but the alarm bells aren’t exactly dead silent. Although several players can score at a decently high level, on-ball creation isn’t very strong.
Zeigler, however, helps offset those struggles. While he isn’t an elite on-ball scorer himself, he facilitates extremely well. His 7.4 assists per game lead the SEC; if he stayed atop the category by season’s end, it’d be the third consecutive season of him doing so.
However, forcing the ball out of Zeigler’s hands, especially late in the shot clock, could prove prosperous for Mizzou. Look for the Tigers to trap on ball screens with Zeigler as the ball-handler.
Get Grill going
The date is Jan. 24, 2011. The Memphis Grizzlies and Toronto Raptors are tied at 98 with under 20 seconds left in regulation. Rudy Gay leads Memphis in scoring with 19 points; he’s not even 25 years old, and yet, he’s already developed into one of the NBA’s top scorers. He receives a pass from fellow youngster Mike Conley.
Watch as a Raptors fan sitting courtside realizes Gay has the ball. His emotional descent is quick, and his reaction to what Gay did next will forever be priceless.
“No, it’s Rudy Gay! NOOO! NOOO! NOOO not this guy! Not this guy!
AAAAA OH MY GOD! YOU F***ING A**HOLE! NOOO! NOOO!”
I’d like to think this is how Caleb Grill has made opposing teams feel this season.
Again, Tennessee’s rim protection is elite, and the Vols don’t foul much, either. Even if Mizzou attacks the basket at the level it has been this season, the Tigers may not get a favorable whistle. If so, three-point shooting will become more valuable, and there arguably hasn’t been a better one in the country than Grill.
My Prediction
Mizzou 70, Tennessee 68
Tennessee is the best defensive team Mizzou will have faced this season.
Then again, Mizzou scored 83 points against Florida.
It’s up to you to decide which of those two sentences will influence your prediction strongest. Perhaps the smackdown that Mizzou laid upon Mississippi State on Saturday is still lingering, but the Tigers have proven time and time again that they can turn to several different players on both ends of the floor for production. It’s already lead to a handful of monster victories, and more should be in the cards.
If Mizzou goes into Knoxville and does what they did to Mississippi State, I will legitimately consider this team to potentially be better than Frank Haith’s first squad in the 2011-12 season. While a blowout seems unlikely, a close win seems more reasonable.