The Tigers have one of the best records against ranked opponents of any team in the country; can they sustain it?
Losses sting, but losses where you held an over 10-point second half lead against the No. 4 team in the country on the road sting even more. Such is the reality for the No. 15 Mizzou Tigers, who will attempt to avoid that ranking falling a good amount by beating the incoming No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies.
The Tigers lost in a valiant effort to No. 4 Tennessee 81-85, a team they have battled with in the Dennis Gates era. On the other hand, Texas A&M have had Gates’ number since coming to Missouri, as he is 0-4 against the Aggies.
The main catalyst is Wade Taylor, who has been with the Aggies for what feels like 100 years. Taylor has averaged 18ppg against Mizzou in the Gates era and an even more intimidating 19.5ppg when playing at Mizzou Arena.
This year is different, though, or at least that’s what they’re saying around this fanbase. This is a great opportunity to prove that, by overturning trends of years past. The Tigers have not lost at Mizzou Arena this season, but this is by far the best opponent to enter the ring since kansas (and you could easily argue this is the best this season).
It’s also the 10th annual Rally for Rhyan game, and the Tigers rarely lose these games, taking the L just three times in 10 years. In case you’re not familiar, here’s the details. Brad Loos was a former Tigers’ assistant coach under Kim Anderson when his daughter, Rhyan, was diagnosed with Stage 4 Neuroblastoma at age 5. To help raise money for pediatric cancer research, the Loos family started the Rally for Rhyan fund. While Rhyan has now been cancer-free since December 2016, the fight still goes on. With over $900K raised since its inception, the Loos family has been able to fund numerous pediatric cancer trials, and hopes to continue to fight to stop pediatric cancer with your help. Per The Missourian, the family has revealed that this year’s target is at least $70,000, which would put the total amount raised in the past decade at 1 million dollars. It’s also kind of a welcome back for Brad Loos, who returned to the University this year in a development role after a stint with current Mizzou AD Laird Veatch at Memphis.
Game Info
When | 3:30 p.m. CT
Where | Mizzou Arena; Columbia, Mo.
TV | SEC Network | ESPN+
Radio | Tiger Radio Network // Sirius/XM -119/199
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
ESPN win probability | 50.8% Chance
The Starters
No. 15 Mizzou (17-5, 6-3 SEC)
G: Anthony Robinson II (SO, 9.9 PPG)
G: Tamar Bates (SR, 13.5 PPG)
G: Tony Perkins (SR, 7.7 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (JR, 12.8 PPG)
F: Trent Pierce (SO, 8.4 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Caleb Grill (SR, 13.2 PPG)
No. 10 Texas A&M (17-5, 6-3 SEC)
G: Wade Taylor IV (SR, 15.1 PPG)
G: Zhuric Phelps (SR, 14.8 PPG)
G: Manny Obaseki (SR, 7.5 PPG
F: Pharrel Payne (SR, 9.0 PPG)
F: Henry Coleman (SR, 8.1 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: CJ Wilcher (SR, 4.2 PPG)
Note: These starting lineups are projected.
Get to know Texas A&M: Wade Taylor and the coolest name in the NCAA are on fire!
Zhuric Phelps, does it really get any better than that? A+ name and he has the game to back it up, as he’s been the perfect support for Wade Taylor this season which is why the Aggies are in the exact same spot as Mizzou, 17-5 and 6-3 in conference play. The majority of the scoring comes from their guard duo, as nobody else on their team scores in the double digits.
Why? Because this is a typical Buzz Williams team, amazing at closing out and forcing teams to rely on their outside shooting thanks to their paint defense. They are 9th in the country in allowed field goal percentage but share a similar stat to other teams that the Tigers have dismantled. They are 349th in the country in Three-Point Attempt Rate Allowed but top 50 in three-point percentage allowed, which means the Tigers shooters will get looks. The stats say they’re more likely to catch fire at home, and they will hope a raucous Saturday crowd at Mizzou Arena can keep their shooters confident.
If there was a “Don’t Give Up-ometer” stat in college basketball, the Aggies would be #1 in it. They are Top 10 in three stats on offense, free-throw attempt rate, potential quick points off of second chance rebounds, and second-chance conversion rate. This team fights to the last millisecond of the shot clock on every possession. Pharrel Payne and Henry Coleman are both above the 80th percentile in offensive rebounding and free-throw rate, but the rebounding this Aggie team gets from its guards is amazing. Phelps as a guard is in the 93rd percentile of steals and offensive rebounding, and the 99th percentile in defensive efficiency.
Buzz Williams began his career at Texas A&M after successfully rebuilding a down Virginia Tech basketball program, turning a team that was 9-22 before he arrived into a team with three-straight tournament appearances in just three years. Before that, Williams was the head man at Marquette, where he made the tournament in his first four seasons including an Elite 8 run in his fourth year. He was then fired after a 17-15 year, to which he joined Virginia Tech. Fun tidbit, his first ever tournament loss as a head coach came to No. 3 seeded Mizzou in 08-09, as his No. 6 Marquette took an 83-79 loss to a Tiger team that had five players with 10 or more points.
Bracketology-wise, this A&M team is a projected three-seed and with Mizzou projected as a five-seed it makes this game all the more important.
3 Keys to the Game
Hands Up!
That’s right, this goes out to anyone defending in the paint. Get those hands up, because every single player on that Texas team is going to generate foul-worthy contact if you don’t. They excel at putting up points when the clock isn’t moving, but clean defense can prevent that. The team doesn’t shoot very well, and will have an even tougher time shooting in front of a loud home crowd. The last thing you can do is give a good foul shooting team foul shots.
Drive and Spray
This feels like a priority every game, but it is because the SEC is filled with so many teams that heavily crash the paint. The teams that can kick it out the best and get shooters open are the best in the league. Mizzou showed they could do it against the best team in the country at it in Tennessee, they need to continue that trend. Grill and Bates stay hot, but they need more support from guys like Crews and Pierce who should be reliable 3-4 options from beyond the arc.
Fight for the board
Texas A&M creates lots of tie-ups and competitive rebound situations, and its why they are so good at second-chance opportunities. Josh Gray must be strong on the boards against the likes of Phelps, Coleman, and Payne who will all be seeking to grab those rebounds and quickly put it back up to draw a foul. Mark Mitchell has a tendency to drop his stance, and he cannot afford to do that this game. Mizzou did a great job rebounding their last two games, but that trend continuing is most imperative in this game.
Game Prediction
My Prediction: Mizzou 83, Texas A&M 72
I think this is a great opportunity for Mizzou to bounce back, the Aggies play with fire from the three-point line and there are two games of tape against Oklahoma that can show that backdraft blowing right into their faces. My guess is that Jacob Crews has a big game on Saturday. He’s had some up and down shooting performances, but he loves the Mizzou crowd and I think he and Tamar Bates are going to seize the moment. Dennis Gates is going to figure out Wade Taylor and hold him to less than 15 points on Saturday; book it.